SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 38 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Euro handle the cold better early on for the last storm than the GFS? The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern. Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range. The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right. Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25. The GFS has had issues all winter trying to pump the SE ridge over the CONUS which just hasn’t verified for any long periods. It’s been more out in the NATL when it has verified. The CFS has tried this too 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 47 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I agree, it looks like higher h5 heights want to hang on over the southeast muting the cold for a good while and we don't get into the trough until mid February. Again, even then I think we have to hope for another tilted clipper or boundary layer storm. Yeah, just like the Christmas outbreak, never looked cold, SE ridge showing up, yadda yadda, got pretty cold if I recall. Look for models to have to catch up to the pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern. Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range. The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right. Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25 TY sir, always good to get your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Playstation or XboxGolden Tee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 58 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 1 hour ago, PisgahNCWeather said: Playstation or Xbox Golden Tee Real life! Don't hate the player, hate the game.! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro has been better in that Day 8-15 range all winter as far as general pattern. Back in December the GFS went crazy with a SE ridge 12/20-12/30 in the long range. The EPS then joined it for about a day or two and everyone thought the GFS was right. Then both models quickly reverted to a rapid cool down after 12/25. The GFS has had issues all winter trying to pump the SE ridge over the CONUS which just hasn’t verified for any long periods. It’s been more out in the NATL when it has verified. The CFS has tried this too Yes, I'm hoping that's the case for February too, as all the models seem to again keep ridging poking into the southeast for a while. It would be nice if we could get into the trough early February instead of mid. Give us more time to make something work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west. Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Winter cancel! I love y'all like step children, but I'm gonna go with the experts: Robert, JB, CR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Keep in mind guys that the 15 day GFS still only goes into the middle of the FIRST WEEK of February, we have to wait another week before our time range starts showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The LR indices look good today. The PNA, AO, and the EPO all look favorable. The NAO now looks to stay positive; but no worries, it's been this way for the last three years. In the future I may just leave it off the discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The LR indices look good today. The PNA, AO, and the EPO all look favorable. The NAO now looks to stay positive; but no worries, it's been this way for the last three years. In the future I may just leave it off the discussion. NAO ensembles 14 day forecast mean average was -.0633 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 33 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: NAO ensembles 14 day forecast mean average was -.0633 There's different sites and sources. I look at (GFS based): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Someone remind me why I care about the GFS. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Hope the EPS looks better than this. Nothing like being concerned about a 384 hour GFS map! LOL! Remember how the models nailed the Christmas and NEw Years cold snap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Someone remind me why I care about the GFS. Somebody remind me why your still posting!? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 45 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Hope the EPS looks better than this. The ghost of Packabacker coming back to haunt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, WarmNose said: The ghost of Packabacker coming back to haunt us he isn’t coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Nothing like being concerned about a 384 hour GFS map! LOL! Remember how the models nailed the Christmas and NEw Years cold snap! Exactly, are we really going to do this again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 A really interesting discussion here concerning the polar vortex. Give it a look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 GFS 18z looks good. Still got a "storm" around Groundhog Day, plus Glenn Burns said Arctic hammers coming and snow, but he can't elaborate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 JB - On the MJO, Like before the previous cold, the midday updates are focusing on the MJO The "look" of the day 15 euro was a hint this was still in 7 and the MJO forecast shows that Notice even 15 days away, the forecasted amplitude is stronger than the set upfor the previous cold My interpretation of this is that because it is so cold, the cold overwhelmes the pattern but with a lot of fighting over the east until it gets into 8. The danger is that the fight between intense cold and the natural resistance in phase 7 ( it is not far from 8) produces repetitive storms with snow and ice in the areas where the cold can amplify in phase 8. A slow move through phase 8 and then other phases, or even into the null phase, would still likely mean major cold. Unlike last year, there is plenty of cold on the field The correction for low solar easterly qbo which is a stornger oorrelation mid and late winter would argue for continued amplitude correction, Notice it moves very quickly through 5 and 6 compared to 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 JB and Judah Cohen predicting cold? In the EAST? Incredible! 18z GFS looks good for the possible Feb 2/3 event. Develops a slp along a front that then slides NE. Judging by the mean of the 12z EPS, it's also hinting at a possibility of some frozen precip in the same timeframe. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Anything on deck for 2/1 or 2/2? Saw a bird carrying a snake over the mountain and that means winter weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Pest control guy told me yesterday it's going to snow on 2/2 and 2/14. His wife read it in the Almanac! Almanac got the last 2 snows correct, he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z GFS says S*ck It 0z GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Solak said: Pest control guy told me yesterday it's going to snow on 2/2 and 2/14. His wife read it in the Almanac! Almanac got the last 2 snows correct, he said. Thanks Just teasing about the snake...poor attempt at humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 18z GFS says S*ck It 0z GFS! Euro was colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 28 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Anything on deck for 2/1 or 2/2? Saw a bird carrying a snake over the mountain and that means winter weather!!! Birds only count when they fly over Wilkesboro! JB bumbling and stumbling about cold, imagine that!? I better trade in my preemergent for a pallet of ice melt! Powerstoke better ready up the plows and plan on heading North. I have dandelions blooming, saw robins today, winters over! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Euro was colder? Yeah prolly. The 0z GFS has a mega SE ridge at the end of the run with the cold shifting NW. This run gets cold prior to D10 and looks pretty cold going forward from there. It’s much more in line with how I think thinks will line out. Now, if we can only activate the STJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 8 hours ago, burrel2 said: I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west. Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time. Ditto, the maps so far are all showing that. Cold Midwest and south central, snow apps and west. I too am hoping for an eastward progression, GSP -AUG -CAE still needs a solid snow before the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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