Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,501
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    three60
    Newest Member
    three60
    Joined
Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat

Yup. At least we've got surprise flurries today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat

South is much better than being too far north. Plus its had some issues being too far south the last few years. But all the solutions on the table are viable; including the most probably solution of cold rain. **we have nothing to lose...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

South is much better than being too far north. Plus its had some issues being too far south the last few years. But all the solutions on the table are viable; including the most probably solution of cold rain. **we have nothing to lose...

South is fine, but weak is not...need a strong upper level system to get the cooling.

Euro has 32 deg sfc temps in south GA on the morning of Mar 15th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, griteater said:

South is fine, but weak is not...need a strong upper level system to get the cooling.

Euro has 32 deg sfc temps in south GA on the morning of Mar 15th

NAVGEM would get the job done(great low placement). Just wish it wasn't March.

 

aaaa.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huh...what---Who woke me?  Thought it was Spring.  

 

How's this looking for the Triangle 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Huh...what---Who woke me?  Thought it was Spring.  

 

How's this looking for the Triangle 

Awful, as usual.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Huh...what---Who woke me?  Thought it was Spring.  

 

How's this looking for the Triangle 

Go back to hibernation 

 

 

snow.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Huh...what---Who woke me?  Thought it was Spring.  

 

How's this looking for the Triangle 

Unless you sleepwalked about 100 miles NW while hibernating it's going to be a cold rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some more big model hits at 0z tonight. Can't discern ukie to well yet, Acc tourney. ICON will make alot of folks happy. We should be getting more definitive , cohesive forecast for our backyards by tommorow night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Some more big model hits at 0z tonight. Can't discern ukie to well yet, Acc tourney. ICON will make alot of folks happy. We should be getting more definitive , cohesive forecast for our backyards by tommorow night.

Yep ICON is a beauty!! JMA ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

6Z GFS a whiff for the triangle.  Maybe some deformation band flurries. That's it.  

GFS would be a wicked heavy power outage type snowstorm for VA. I’m up in CT still and was able to witness their nor’easter they got up here and it was awesome. Going to have to monitor this one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, griteater said:

00z ICON that was mentioned and the 00z UKMET both nailed it with the stronger backside wave and secondary sfc low...impressive 

NAM is also digging deep with the wave at the end 

12Z NAM will have my attn.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

12Z NAM will have my attn.

Yep. As I said before, we have nothing to lose and maybe a lucky win. It will take a perfect setup (...even more than normal). 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My worthless 2 cents from the mtn thread.

  10 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I'm feeling good about the model guidance right now, even though a spread exists. Blacksburg has a decent disco on the event and they aren't buying the gfs solution. Interesting note...they think the strength of the storm modeled by the gfs may be correct though. Now that would certainly be a dumping of snow for our area. 

Agree. The GFS would have to score a major coup over the higher res Euro,ICON, way better performing UKIE, and Nam. Anything can happen, but the gfs being right verse the above is highly unlikely.

Today will be the day of reckoning, definitely by 0z tonight. All the pieces to the puzzle will be well sampled and loaded in. I anticipate that at some point,most likely 0z tonight hopefully right after Duke beats unc, the gfs will fall in line, adjust. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

To much of a press , confluence up north for this to roll through southern KY, WVA imo. Well see

NAM did trend higher with QPF up my way, closer in line to GFS. Much weaker albeit with system and south overall however. 12K NAM gives me 7''.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z RGEM looks ominous and more GFS like with the Miller B setup. Low over central TN at end of its run. RGEM still just a touch out of its range but I feel like it has performed very well this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GFS going to be a big hit for VA northern NC mountains. Crazy spread at this timeframe, although Nam imo took a step toward GFS this morning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

12z GFS going to be a big hit for VA northern NC mountains. Crazy spread at this timeframe, although Nam imo took a step toward GFS this morning. 

12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN.  12z CMC looks similar to GFS.  Both look pretty good in your area Buddy.  CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground.  For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×