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Tyler Penland

2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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The GFS is looking less and less promising for Asheville for Sunday night snow. Joe and Buckethead and north to all our northern mtn friends still look good in my opinion. Hopefully, the models blow up a big storm today that crush the mtns and foothills, but I am not holding my breath.

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

The GFS is looking less and less promising for Asheville for Sunday night snow. Joe and Buckethead and north to all our northern mtn friends still look good in my opinion. Hopefully, the models blow up a big storm today that crush the mtns and foothills, but I am not holding my breath.

GFS seems to be on an island right now. Could it score a coup? Possibly, but I wouldn’t push my chips to the middle of the table for it. If you want something good to look at to start your day, look at the 6Z NAM

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17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

GFS seems to be on an island right now. Could it score a coup? Possibly, but I wouldn’t push my chips to the middle of the table for it. If you want something good to look at to start your day, look at the 6Z NAM

I did see that. Hopefully, it is correct. Maybe today will produce more positivity for me.  :lol:

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I did see that. Hopefully, it is correct. Maybe today will produce more positivity for me.  :lol:



0z Euro has a similar solution to the 6z NAM. Drops around 4” at KAVL as the 5h vort rotates through.


.
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26 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 

 


0z Euro has a similar solution to the 6z NAM. Drops around 4” at KAVL as the 5h vort rotates through.


.

 

 

Hopefully, models go the way of the NAM and the Euro today. Actually,  hopefully, the weather goes the way of the NAM and the Euro.

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

 

 


0z Euro has a similar solution to the 6z NAM. Drops around 4” at KAVL as the 5h vort rotates through.


.

 

 

Yea that 06Z NAM solution was a doozy, with near 9" of snowfall at KAVL through Monday morning.  I was just talking to a colleague and again we use this "rule" over and over - if the NAM and Euro are in agreement, then a blend of their solutions is the likely outcome.  Hmm....GFS....you're move.

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I'm feeling good about the model guidance right now, even though a spread exists. Blacksburg has a decent disco on the event and they aren't buying the gfs solution. Interesting note...they think the strength of the storm modeled by the gfs may be correct though. Now that would certainly be a dumping of snow for our area. 

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5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I'm feeling good about the model guidance right now, even though a spread exists. Blacksburg has a decent disco on the event and they aren't buying the gfs solution. Interesting note...they think the strength of the storm modeled by the gfs may be correct though. Now that would certainly be a dumping of snow for our area. 

Agree. The GFS would have to score a major coup over the higher res Euro,ICON, way better performing UKIE, and Nam. Anything can happen, but the gfs being right verse the above is highly unlikely.

Today will be the day of reckoning, definitely by 0z tonight. All the pieces to the puzzle will be well sampled and loaded in. I anticipate that at some point,mist likely 0z tonight hopefully right after Duke beats unc, the gfs will fall in line, adjust. 

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Whoever wrote the GSP disco this morning is a gifted writer.  

"

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday: The short term is a complicated mess with
low to at best medium confidence, given continued differences in
guidance. ECMWF is now trending the system for the weekend and into
early next week back farther south, as is the NAM, whereas the GFS
is now farther north and has the system exiting sooner. This results
in a range of scenarios anywhere from snow in only the mountains
(GFS) to snow almost down to Columbia (NAM) by Monday morning. But I
suppose we can talk about Saturday first (as the old saying goes,
start at the beginning, and when you get to the end, stop).

At the beginning of the short term, the exiting midlevel low will be
working its way over Newfoundland, with broad troughing dominating
the East Coast. A shortwave will be diving down the northern
Rockies, while cyclogenesis is underway across the Southern Plains.
Warm frontal feature will extend east toward the TN Valley, with
surface high over the western Atlantic and western Great Lakes
being kinked in between by the eastward-extending warm front. Wave
of precip along the front enhanced by weak isentropic upglide and a
little bit of orographic lift will lead to increasing rain chances
during the day (starting off with a little snow in the mountains).
Despite some guidance wanting to develop some insitu damming,
temperatures should be fairly close to seasonal normals for highs,
with the damming not really developing until the Great Lakes high is
able to move eastward and bring the reinforcing ageostrophic
adjustment down the Appalachians Saturday night. Meanwhile the
diving wave becomes a diving closed low with cyclogenesis continuing
to ramp up over the Lower MS Valley. More significant moisture will
push in from the west Saturday night and Sunday with isentropic lift
increasing across the Deep South into the Southern Appalachians.
With the damming and widespread clouds/precip, highs Sunday should
be markedly lower than those Monday (8-10 degrees or so), with
definitely some bust potential depending on how strong the damming
manages to develop.

And sometime on Sunday is when the forecast goes awry with a mess of
different model solutions. The GFS develops a stronger secondary
wave to the NW of the primary mid-level low (looks like a little bit
of convective feedback) while the primary one lifts out much faster
and slightly farther north than the ECMWF (off the NJ coast by Mon
18z whereas ECMWF is over the Savannah River). The GFS has shown
more run-to-run consistency but the operational model isn`t as
supported by other operational runs. ECMWF and NAM have varied more
from run-to-run (especially with the southward shift of the closed
midlevel low) but when compared to other global guidance, the more
southerly solution might be slightly more favored. Of course, with
lack of a better option, have taken the best course of action
possible at this point and picked something near the middle. So as
to the sensible weather impacts, naturally these will be highly
dependent on all the variables mentioned above, but in general we`re
pretty close to the previous forecast. This brings lows of mid-30s
into the NC Piedmont, so the forecast continues to paint a rain-snow
mix with possible trace/dusting accumulation Monday morning before
temperatures rise into the 50s. The mountains, however, are a
different story. For almost a week now models have been painting at
least moderate to at times fairly significant amounts of snowfall.
The uncertainty is underscored in the GEFS plumes for Boone, where
the operational has 0 snow, the mean is ~4", and the high end is
almost a foot. Would not be at all surprised if we end up having to
post headlines this weekend for the mountains, but just way too far
out for any details at this time.

The short term thankfully ends with rapidly exiting precip Monday
afternoon, with just some lingering NW flow snow in the mountains.

&&"

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58 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Yea that 06Z NAM solution was a doozy, with near 9" of snowfall at KAVL through Monday morning.  I was just talking to a colleague and again we use this "rule" over and over - if the NAM and Euro are in agreement, then a blend of their solutions is the likely outcome.  Hmm....GFS....you're move.

I remember the old e-e rule when it was the eta. I hope it still holds. 

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46 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

12z euro clobbers the northern mountains. 

About dang time.... anyways just got back from Florida this morning from a booze filled vacation. Guess if it's gonna snow in march, might as well be a good one. Bring it on.

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14 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Anybody got any details from the Euro? Time frame, amounts, temps?

Timeframe someone else may have to elaborate on given the dynamics and changeover potential, but the Euro painted 10-12 in across the N mts.  

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where is the cold high pressure when you need one, was hoping this storm would have the cold air with it.  :ee:

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KGSP AFD

12” possible ....

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE MILLER-A LOW SHAPES UP, LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL   PICK UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT'LL BE A BIT OF A   RACE TO SEE HOW FAR INTO THE PIEDMONT THE COLD AIR SPREADS BEFORE   THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. ONE THING WE CAN BE FAIRLY CERTAIN OF IS   THAT THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE   MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD AIR REALLY PUSHES IN ALOFT. THE   COLDER THE AIRMASS, THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATIOS GO, BUT ACROSS   ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT AVERAGE OUT   AROUND 12:1 OR SO. AS THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW RAMS INTO THE   APPALACHIANS, THIS IS WHEN WE COULD REALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS   PILING UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WE PUSH TOWARD   DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT QPF AND EXPECTED INCREASING SNOW RATIOS   LEAD TO SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT QPF   HAVE TONED THIS DOWN A LITTLE, BUT IN GENERAL HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE   TO ASSUME WE'LL LIKELY HAVE WARNING CRITERIA *AT LEAST* ACROSS THE   NORTHERN THREE, AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SW ALONG THE TN LINE INTO THE   SMOKIES. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM   WATCH FOR YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY; GENERALLY THE 4" CRITERION SHOULD   BE MET (WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST) LOOKS LIKE ABOVE 3KFT, BUT ONCE   YOU GET UP TO 5KFT AND HIGHER, WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF WE   END UP SEEING SOME TOTALS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING A FOOT. HAVE   KEPT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOUT 9-10" AND THAT'S PRETTY ISOLATED.   LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SMOKIES   (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NUTTY NAM WHICH IS PAINTING >15" THERE). WOULD   LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z MONDAY;   BY ISSUING TODAY IT'LL BE ISSUED IN EST BUT VALID DURING EDT SUNDAY   NIGHT SO A LITTLE DST CONFUSION THROWN IN THERE WITH THE REST OF THE   MESS.     AS FOR THE PIEDMONT, OF COURSE THE NC PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCES   OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT THOUGH 850-700MB THICKNESSES WILL   BE COLD ENOUGH, SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST DON'T   CUT IT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS   PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING. AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY   AND MONDAY NIGHT, AT THIS POINT IT JUST SORT OF DEPENDS ON IF THE   MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW GETS ALL SNOWED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OR   IF THERE'S ENOUGH TO BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT;   GFS MOST EXCITED ABOUT THIS BUT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR NOW.   TYPICAL POST-CAD/POST-COLDFRONTAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE   PRETTY SIMILAR TO IN-CAD/PRE-COLDFRONTAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY, AND AT OR   BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, SO UNLESS THE DRIER   AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY THE AREA   OUT (CERTAINLY MIGHT BE), WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES ON   TUESDAY MORNING.  

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Surprised there isn't more chatter on here, GSP says there could be significant snow in the valleys and foothills once the snow levels start dropping Sunday evening that things are still up in the air at the moment on storm totals even for Asheville.  I think if the storm would move about 50 miles south a lot of folks would be in for a good snow event.

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

.A strong upper level disturbance combined with a strengthening
area of surface low pressure will bring increasing moisture to the
area Sunday. Cold air will begin filtering into the mountains
Sunday afternoon, dropping snow levels through the evening. Snow
is expected to accumulate across the North Carolina mountains,
with the highest amounts in the northern mountains.

NCZ033-049-050-101630-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.180312T0000Z-180312T1800Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss,
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine,
and Poplar
329 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches at elevations
  above 5000 feet, are possible.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Monday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.

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Feels good to finally be in the proverbial bullseye for a system. Here's hoping for an overperformer. I've still never seen a foot of snow in my yard. Crossing my fingers really hard we can get there this time with the ULL/deformation band. A little thundersnow to boot wouldn't be bad either.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Feels good to finally be in the proverbial bullseye for a system. Here's hoping for an overperformer. I've still never seen a foot of snow in my yard. Crossing my fingers really hard we can get there this time with the ULL/deformation band. A little thundersnow to boot wouldn't be bad either.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk
 

I'm not feeling too confident on this one. I want to but deep down I think we're going to be rain a bit longer than expected. Models are beginning to move north again.

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2 hours ago, NC_WX10 said:

I'm not feeling too confident on this one. I want to but deep down I think we're going to be rain a bit longer than expected. Models are beginning to move north again.

Go figure, whats new.

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I think it'll be very elevation dependent south of Avery County. Usually, in these types of events, it's very hard to get cold air in here before you've wasted most of the moisture. Avery north seems to cool down much quicker. Many March storms have given Boone a good thump while my county and south gets practically nothing. We'll see.

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