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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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If we can eek out some accumulation here it would give us at least one winter event in each wintry month: Dec. Jan. Feb (Super Bowl Ice) and March. That's not a bad winter and makes up for an overall lousy February. 

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Yeah, *IF* we got a system like that, I think you could cut those clown map totals down to 25%..   1/2" realistically would accumulate on grassy surfaces in Wake..   Air temp, soil temps...  Mike Moss on WRAL was mentioning it yesterday, which is very early for WRAL, but even he said that soil temps were a big issue.  

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6z GFS was a paste event for the foothills. It probably wouldnt be any better than 6:1 but MRN had 1.1" of snow QPF.

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

6z GEFS much improved compared to the 0z GEFS.

GEFS trend loop.  Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed.  Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west.  TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south.  Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

GEFS trend loop.  Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed.  Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west.  TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south.  Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

 

You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots

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GSP saying they have to watch the models very closely, just a slight shift of the low to the south could cause impressive snow amounts lower than the highest peaks.  Come on Mr. Low pressure, please go south of us a little more.  :snowing:

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51 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots

12z NAM has your scenario...runs sfc low from S Bama to Wilmington and flips north central NC over to some snow in heavy precip...snow into southern and central VA as well

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13 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z NAM has your scenario...runs sfc low from S Bama to Wilmington and flips north central NC over to some snow in heavy precip...snow into southern and central VA as well

Definitely interesting.

 

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12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run.  Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run.  If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business.  I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out.  I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time.  Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out.

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55 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run.  Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run.  If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business.  I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out.  I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time.  Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out.

Yeah, it's not a good track for RDU and points SE. Starts out good over extreme southern Alabama but then makes a beeline for Wilmington. Needs to track about 75 - 100 miles further SE. Not much cold or dry air to work with either.

Edit: I smell a 35 degree driving cold rain with this one outside of the mountains and Northern NC into VA.

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Might want to look again. 

I did...  I see the blues, but I'm not buying it with surface and boundary layer temperatures

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21 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Being 2 weeks later is not going to help us.  Cold air marginal.

It snowed two inches here last year around almost that same exact date. 

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24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I keep hammering this home but the evolution of this event reminds me a great deal of 3/1/09.

Hope so. That was the last time I've experienced Thundersnow. That being said, the ULL seems to open up on most of the models as it heads southeastward.

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This reminds me of March last year. Models showed a DC storm and it kept coming further and further south. Ended up with close to 3 inches south of charlotte. Might have even been the same day. It was around March 10.

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