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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that the few that work out are memorable...partly because they usually don't lol.

It is impressive, though.

All of eastern sne is in a terrible spot.

Those long LES  streamers that traverse a 3 state region are also one of my favorites. They are rare but peeps in SW Ct ORH county and NECT will sometimes be surprised at the intensity of a rotting LES. Back in 15 when a mouse fart made it snow we had one the originated off of Lake Michigan crossed and reinvigorated on Ontario and dropped 2.5 inches with a w/e of 80 to 1 of Cotton on top of 3 feet of snow making for perhaps the most surreal cartoonish scene I have witnessed. I  waited a generation for it.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry gets a classic Leon storm on GFS tonight for 12/23

Lol yes! I had Leon in my fantasy snow league today

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry gets a classic Leon storm on GFS tonight for 12/23

Goes from raining for days to snow and ice in o e run....I guess we could just flip a coin at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Goes from raining for days to snow and ice in o e run....I guess we could just flip a coin at this point.

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

Are we more vulnerable to being on the wrong side than we were in 1994, and why?

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

After the past 2 years, it's nice to have the cold near by...it will at least make things interesting, even if we are on the wrong side of things from time to time. The kind of cold nearby with the SE ridge flexing makes me wonder if there ends up being ice or sleet storm incoming at some point before the new year.

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29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Grinch turns snowy this run.

Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro' the house
Not a weenie was stirring, not even a mouse;
The sleds were stored  by the chimney with care,
In hopes that St Kocin soon would be there;
KGAY and DIT were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of KUs danced in their heads

And NoPoles in her 'kerchief, and Fella in his cap,

Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap
When out in the yard there arose such a clatter,
Fella sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window  Fella flew like a flash,
Tore open the blinds , and threw up the sash.
The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below;
When, what to his wondering eyes should appear,
But a four wheeler , and 8 weenies so dear
With a smiling  old driver, so lively and tall,
He knew in a moment it must be St. Paul

More rapid than eagles his weenies they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and call'd them by name:
"Now! James, now! Scooter, now! Will and  Hippy,
"On! TBlizxy, on! Bobbalouie, on! Dendrite and Powder;

With a wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave Fella to know he had nothing to dread.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
The snow fell as heavy as it could ever fall; then he turn'd with a jerk,
And laying his finger aside of his nose
And giving a nod, from the blizzard he rose.
He sprung to his 4 wheeler, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew, like the down of a thistle:
But  he heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight‍—‌

A White Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

This run had a -34C PV over Minnesota, LOL. Big changes.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Grinch turns snowy this run.

Mr. Grinch has met his match tonights run.......love seeing that.....the ups and downs.......wheeeeeeee........:scooter:

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are we more vulnerable to being on the wrong side than we were in 1994, and why?

I mean...not really IMHO. It depends when in 1994 you are talking about. This looks a bit like the early feb 94 pattern at least in that D9-12 range. Those storms could have cut but they didn't. Sometimes it is just pure luck as much as we want to assign specific larger scale reasons. Yeah, we get the ingredients in place wth the frigid Canada and northern tier with the EPO dump...but once we all agree that it sets the table, the rest is up to smaller scale nuances that are not really predictable at time leads greater than 6-7 days. You def risk cutters when you bend the flow back SW like that...but often we get away with it at our latitude. We got away with it in 1994, we got away with it in December 2008. We didn't get away with it at times in January 2014. 

The EPS is starting to show much strength in the cold press from the north later next week...so it's starting to look more overrunnish versus cutter. Hopefully that continues.

 

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That’s the take home.  We have a ton of Canadian cold to tap but no nao may mean we’re on the wrong side sometimes.  We could also be lucky and time it right each time.  The point is we’ll have our chances.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s the take home.  We have a ton of Canadian cold to tap but no nao may mean we’re on the wrong side sometimes.  We could also be lucky and time it right each time.  The point is we’ll have our chances.

If I had to guess, we may run the risk of cutters prior to Christmas, but have the risk reduced after. That seems to be the model consensus. Note I said risk. Like Will said..it could easily just be overrunning. However, it seems like models somewhat squash the ridge a bit after Christmas. Of course that is pretty far out.

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Pretty snowy and wintry appeal EURO run last night.  Every panel from day 5/6 through day 8 had some QPF.  That was a days and days of snow solution for NNE.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to guess, we may run the risk of cutters prior to Christmas, but have the risk reduced after. That seems to be the model consensus. Note I said risk. Like Will said..it could easily just be overrunning. However, it seems like models somewhat squash the ridge a bit after Christmas. Of course that is pretty far out.

DIT: i hope you enjoy the cuttters that you want and are forecasting 

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1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

DIT: i hope you enjoy the cuttters that you want and are forecasting 

Well on a high level, I would say the risk is greater before Christmas vs after. It is what it is. Just hope it's more overruning.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well on a high level, I would say the risk is greater before Christmas vs after. It is what it is. Just hope it's more overruning.

i am on board with you, and my gut feeling (no scientific rationale) is that SNE is right on the line, but NNE will do much better in that time period.

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Sometimes when being beaten up with Leon references I forget how wonderful that season was.  I would imagine it’s in Kevin’s all time highlight reel.  Constant and deep winter 12/25 on save for a very brief spell in early February.  1993-94.

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