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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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13 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don't know. neither the GFS nor the Canadian Ensembles have the trough hanging back that far to the west at day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro is keeping too much trough out west. It does that sometimes.

Possible that it's too slow.  In any event, hopefully we get a good system whenever it ejects.

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Stebo

Stebo

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21 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don't know. neither the GFS nor the Canadian Ensembles have the trough hanging back that far to the west at day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro is keeping too much trough out west. It does that sometimes.

At face value, the Euro would be too far west, and could potentially give a lot of us rain if it were to eject from where it is. The answer lies somewhere between the two.

Something closer to the EPS mean is where I would lie at this point.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Just now, Stebo said:

At face value, the Euro would be too far west, and could potentially give a lot of us rain if it were to eject from where it is. The answer lies somewhere between the two.

You think?  I was looking at that high pressure and thinking there'd be a band of ice in the transition zone.  Of course the high may retreat too quickly beyond day 10.  Anyhow, that is a lot of speculation lol

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Stebo

Stebo

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Just now, Hoosier said:

You think?  I was looking at that high pressure and thinking there'd be a band of ice in the transition zone.  Of course the high may retreat too quickly beyond day 10.  Anyhow, that is a lot of speculation lol

I don't like how huge the 500mb ridge is ahead of it even with the surface ridge over Quebec.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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3 hours ago, blackrock said:

Looks like the GFS is showing Lake Effect snows for the Great Lakes states throughout Christmas week as well. As long as we don't some how get a big Lakes Cutter next week, it looks like chances are increasing for a White Christmas.

Latest GFS was a thing of beauty for the LES belts the next couple weeks, but with the volatile weather pattern we could still see rain as well. Looking forward to the interesting pattern

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Latest GFS was a thing of beauty for the LES belts the next couple weeks, but with the volatile weather pattern we could still see rain as well. Looking forward to the interesting pattern

Had to chuckle...Just checked out the 00Z GFS run. It went from having a Low near Indianapolis with snow across Lower Mich next Thursday (18Z) to the Low now being up between Duluth and Green Bay. Lol...nothing like "minor" run to run changes!

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nwburbschaser

nwburbschaser

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43 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Had to chuckle...Just checked out the 00Z GFS run. It went from having a Low near Indianapolis with snow across Lower Mich next Thursday (18Z) to the Low now being up between Duluth and Green Bay. Lol...nothing like "minor" run to run changes!

This is way out in fantasy land. It would be a huge waste of time to even consider low placement at this range. I would just stick with ensembles and be happy that we have some support for storm potential coming up. Anything other than that, too early. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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8 hours ago, nwburbschaser said:

This is way out in fantasy land. It would be a huge waste of time to even consider low placement at this range. I would just stick with ensembles and be happy that we have some support for storm potential coming up. Anything other than that, too early. 

 

8 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Last nights GFS runs were polar opposites. 18Z tried to bring the polar vortex centered over the lakes, meanwhile 00Z has a ridge in the east. 

Yup, I mentioned this last night. Not "freaking out"...more so entertained.

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Jonger

Jonger

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2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Definitely some potential the week of X-Mas, looks like some potential major travel implications with varying solution's from GFS. Last few frames on Euro showing a couple potentials systems as well. Will be interesting to see where the cold/warm battle ground sector line up with these potential systems.

Part of our subforum will see rain, part will see snow.

Where that ends up is the mystery.

This is a good pattern for 44N. Not good for most of the subforum though.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

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2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Definitely some potential the week of X-Mas, looks like some potential major travel implications with varying solution's from GFS. Last few frames on Euro showing a couple potentials systems as well. Will be interesting to see where the cold/warm battle ground sector line up with these potential systems.

That's easy, right on top of me :weenie:

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

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10 hours ago, Jonger said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

 

Yes please.

B) Giddy-up!

 

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Part of our subforum will see rain, part will see snow.

Where that ends up is the mystery.

This is a good pattern for 44N. Not good for most of the subforum though.

 As for temps during this time-frame, I realize this is an avg over the dates covered, but I like the look for mby (Lat: 42.25°N btw). Just need you to be off "slightly" with your guess, lol.

 

S and E has been this year's trend so gonna ride it with this potential as well.

 

 

20171213 CPC 8-14d CONUS Temp anoms for Dec21-27.gif

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Nice storm on the 12z Euro for next Thursday-Friday. Cuts through Lake Michigan and into northern Lake Huron.

As it stands, this is the warmest solution we have seen for next week's storm. Still long ways to go! I think the SE Ridge is a bit overdone by the models, especially when considering the amount of Arctic Air available across Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge out west. Lets see! 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Nice storm on the 12z Euro for next Thursday-Friday. Cuts through Lake Michigan and into northern Lake Huron.

As it stands, this is the warmest solution we have seen for next week's storm. Still long ways to go! I think the SE Ridge is a bit overdone by the models, especially when considering the amount of Arctic Air available across Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge out west. Lets see! 

More energy in the southwest at day 10. Just load up the pattern with multiple chances.  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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1 hour ago, JNichols said:

I'm new here! I LOVE the weather especially watching the storms develop. :) Any luck that north-west KY may have a good white Christmas?

Hello.  Too early to say for sure. Climatology for your area would not favor a white Christmas but you never know.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

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17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm visiting Eastern Indiana through the end of the year. Does anyone think this area has a good chance for some snow in that period ?

Some snow?  Sure.  Will it pile up?  Well it hasn't in awhile so maybe we'll get lucky this year.  This area has been right on the rain snow line for cutters lately, usually on the wrong side.  20 30 miles can mean the difference between a thick blanket of white or one of slushy cold brown around here.  It'll make ya psychotic!    We see a lot of forecasts like the one for Muncie below, but hey, it does and will happen someday hopefully ;)

This Afternoon
Partly sunny, with a high near 28. North wind around 7 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph after midnight.
Friday
A chance of flurries between 9am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind around 9 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
Sunday
A chance of snow before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 10am, then rain likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain before 8pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then a slight chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 3am, then a slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

 

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