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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

12Z GFS much weaker with the late week storm until it gets north of Lake Ontario. Euro on the other hand looks much more interesting with a double-barreled low feature at 12Z Friday (991 MB near Winnipeg and 996 MB over western KS) consolidating and deepening to 979 MB over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday.

18z run is more impressive.  Fwiw, there were some real bombs on the 12z GEFS (a few below 970 mb).  Will be a while until we get a better idea how it shakes out.  Besides whatever severe potential and snow potential, the more widespread story with these deeper solutions would be a regional high wind event.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z run is more impressive.  Fwiw, there were some real bombs on the 12z GEFS (a few below 970 mb).  Will be a while until we get a better idea how it shakes out.  Besides whatever severe potential and snow potential, the more widespread story with these deeper solutions would be a regional high wind event.

I wonder if this strong low pressure will end up creating a severe weather threat in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley.

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On 11/10/2017 at 7:44 PM, cmillzz said:

Looking more and more likely for at least a top 20 cold November. If it's anything like 2013-2014, we won't see spring until May at the earliest. Just an awful stretch of weather, I don't know why I live here honestly.

If I hated cold, I would have moved 20 years ago.

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00z GFS gets the weekend system below 970 mb.

Something I've noticed on the models in general is that the system sort of gets blocked from making a quick northeast exit (and actually may get secondary development on the east coast).  The net effect of that would be to prolong the wind event across the sub, but we'll see if the speed changes on future runs.

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NAM products are trying to give us a burst of wet snow tomorrow morning.  Enough to get DVN's attention.  I'd be happy just to see a few wet flakes mix in at this point, but we'll see.

....

 00z NAM is offering some robust
lift to the tune of 15 to 20 microbars/sec (-12c to -18c layer) in
the dendritic growth zone by 12z Sunday through 18z, and consequently
is wetter from previous runs depicting over 0.25 to just over 0.5 inch
in the band as it shifts across areas mainly near/north of I-80.
The magnitude of the lift dynamically cools the column and leads to a
change over to potentially a moderate/heavy wet snow for a time in
these areas Sunday AM. Wet ground and temps above freezing would likely
limit accums, but some visibility issues and rate could overwhelm
some surfaces especially grassy areas...
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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

NAM products are trying to give us a burst of wet snow tomorrow morning.  Enough to get DVN's attention.  I'd be happy just to see a few wet flakes mix in at this point, but we'll see.

....


 00z NAM is offering some robust
lift to the tune of 15 to 20 microbars/sec (-12c to -18c layer) in
the dendritic growth zone by 12z Sunday through 18z, and consequently
is wetter from previous runs depicting over 0.25 to just over 0.5 inch
in the band as it shifts across areas mainly near/north of I-80.
The magnitude of the lift dynamically cools the column and leads to a
change over to potentially a moderate/heavy wet snow for a time in
these areas Sunday AM. Wet ground and temps above freezing would likely
limit accums, but some visibility issues and rate could overwhelm
some surfaces especially grassy areas...

LOT also put out a similar update.

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15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Can someone post an annual snowfall map For Wisconsin and the UP. Thanks in advance. I may have a job opportunity taking me up this way. 

The maps are generally at least a bit inaccurate, and especially in the lake effect zones.  If you could specify what area you may be moving to, somebody here may be able to help.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The maps are generally at least a bit inaccurate, and especially in the lake effect zones.  If you could specify what area you may be moving to, somebody here may be able to help.

Thanks Hoosier. If I stay in Wisconsin I will probably look for a place to live in the northern sections of the State. More Rural areas. 

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14 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I herd Mt Holly in northern Oakland county opened already, earliest opening ever. Thought that was pretty cool.

Grew up skiing there. Can't imagine them opening almost 2 weeks before Turkey Day. That's impressive! What if they also scored their latest closing in the same season? Lol

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33 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Thanks Hoosier. If I stay in Wisconsin I will probably look for a place to live in the northern sections of the State. More Rural areas. 

Northern WI varies a lot.  The "southern" part of northern WI averages about 50-60", but it's more like 75-100"+ as you get closer to the lake.

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46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Northern WI varies a lot.  The "southern" part of northern WI averages about 50-60", but it's more like 75-100"+ as you get closer to the lake.

Yeah looking at some of the most recent snowfall maps there is a sharp contrast from near the Lake to away from the lake by just a few miles. It is interesting how LES really ramps up totals as you get closer to the Lake.

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