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Christmas Storm IV

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

12z EURO liquid QPF is 1.64 through 12z Monday with more to come for RDU. More to come after that.

I have never see this type of scenario before. A phase with the storm crawling north this far south.

I'm started to wonder if this is going to pull the SLP more NW with such a strong phase so far south. As I recall, March 93 ended up further NW than what some models were predicting.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs.

Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC

this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.

As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.

I've always used the rule of thumb that with most miller A systems, its always good to just be on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low. Do you by chance have access to where the 850mb low is located through the period? If its over the midlands of SC into the Piedmont of NC we are in business!

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs.

Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC

this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.

As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.

Thx again to you and Wow and Cheeze and others for the play by play. Far better than any bowl game i've watched to date.

I'm feeling more confident after each run now that NeGa and myself will at least see a significant snow out of this (3-5") yea we won't get the 2ft but i'm okay with that.

Thanks again Robert!

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

It's even less likely that you will see rain than that we will get 2 feet of snow.

I'd love for a pro met to take a few minutes and highlight the areas east of 95 because we seem to be the only area where theres even a question of snow. You guys will get your snow and it sounds like its just a matter of how much for you.

For us in the east 25 years of experience says the warm nose is ALWAYS a threat. If a pro met can tell me why it isn't going to be in this storm I would love to read it and learn from it!

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

I've always used the rule of thumb that with most miller A systems, its always good to just be on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low. Do you by chance have access to where the 850mb low is located through the period? If its over the midlands of SC into the Piedmont of NC we are in business!

Hey Phil, you staying in GSP for Christmas? I hope as you are our lone MET in the upstate on the board!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I'm started to wonder if this is going to pull the SLP more NW with such a strong phase so far south. As I recall, March 93 ended up further NW than what some models were predicting.

Good point. WE're in uncharted territory here. So many wild things are going on, the model has a hard time adjusting to it. I'm still amazed at just how consisten the Euro is. Raleigh's maps show a very deep low in eastern NC, I can't imagine the throwback we're going to be getting, of course by then we've already had an extreme amount of snow I think from the deeping system over the S. GA and coastal SC system. If for some reason this can phase a few hours sooner, then we'd be looking at even more snow, who knows what that is, but I'm open to the extreme scenario on this one since the above factors are to the max.

I've always used the rule of thumb that with most miller A systems, its always good to just be on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low. Do you by chance have access to where the 850mb low is located through the period? If its over the midlands of SC into the Piedmont of NC we are in business!

I cant see the 850 low, the globals don't pick up on it well I don't think. Wait til it gets within the NAM range and we'll see one.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Be careful with the IMBY posts!

It's all the new members...they probably don't know what IMBY means haha.

It's getting really slow for me as far as the speed of the board is concerned, also looks like avatars have been disabled? Maybe if it gets really bad someone will have to turn off guests...we're still days out!:arrowhead:

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RevDodd

RevDodd

Posted
Posted

Hey, Ivan! I'm used to seeing you during the hurricane season!

IIRC, in situations like that 120 Euro, isn't the best place to be on the 9-12 quadrant? If so it looks like even the coast folks would get pasted before the low reaches them. The key would be to keep everything from getting washed off. Also looks like a pretty darn narrow nose. Hopefully we won't have to test it.

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

Hello all! I am new to the board and I would like to thank all of you mets and others for the valuable insight on storms. I am a senior at college in Va. Beach, but currently im in the foothills of Western NC. I plan to attend Grad school at NCSU and earn my masters in atmospheric science. Im still trying to decide if i will see more snow here in WNC, or if there will be more in Norfolk... Really think the GFS will trend west starting with the 0Z run tonight

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

I'd love for a pro met to take a few minutes and highlight the areas east of 95 because we seem to be the only area where theres even a question of snow. You guys will get your snow and it sounds like its just a matter of how much for you.

For us in the east 25 years of experience says the warm nose is ALWAYS a threat. If a pro met can tell me why it isn't going to be in this storm I would love to read it and learn from it!

Shaggy I think there is a chance of a snow to sleet/rain back to snow scenario in the east based that solution. I am not sure it would last too long though. There really isn't much of a warm nose on the models verbatim though.

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VeronicaCorningstone

VeronicaCorningstone

Posted
Posted

I'd love for a pro met to take a few minutes and highlight the areas east of 95 because we seem to be the only area where theres even a question of snow. You guys will get your snow and it sounds like its just a matter of how much for you.

For us in the east 25 years of experience says the warm nose is ALWAYS a threat. If a pro met can tell me why it isn't going to be in this storm I would love to read it and learn from it!

I would like to second this request :) I'm sharing your concern about the warm nose and the possibility it could put us out of the snow game for a while, if not entirely. I understand that there is a great deal of cold with this system, but still, I'm kinda skittish.

Thanks to you mets who are going into so much detail and putting so much into your discussions on this board. We appreciate it :thumbsup:

Edit - just saw your post, Eyewall. Thanks! BTW, I hope Southern Pines gets plastered with snow - you deserve it. :snowman:

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

I'm started to wonder if this is going to pull the SLP more NW with such a strong phase so far south. As I recall, March 93 ended up further NW than what some models were predicting.

I agree 100 percent...the maps on the EURO are so similar to that of 1993. Infact I believe the models had the SLP going up along the coast whein infact it went just inland. In this extreme type of solution, a GOM bomb is a very good indicator for massive snows here in Western North Carolina. Like Robert has been saying all along, QPF placement in this type of scenario could end up being irrelevant due to all the other dynamical factors involved.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I'd love for a pro met to take a few minutes and highlight the areas east of 95 because we seem to be the only area where theres even a question of snow. You guys will get your snow and it sounds like its just a matter of how much for you.

For us in the east 25 years of experience says the warm nose is ALWAYS a threat. If a pro met can tell me why it isn't going to be in this storm I would love to read it and learn from it!

from Greenville, Kinston to Ahoskie at 102 the 850 is close, so in my opinon with this strong ofa system yes its cause for concern right up to almost 95 with mixing issues during the heart of the storm. The stronger it gets the more chance it pulls in enough mid level warmth for mix or complete sloppy mess for a period but that woudln't last too long on the Euro because it continues to march up the coast just offshore and by 108 hour you're already switched back to extremely heavy snow. Don't sweat it that you go to rain for a little while, you will switch back. Its impossible to nail down the exact track yet though.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Is this really going to happen during a moderate La Nina? arrowheadsmiley.png

lol epic fail so far on the winter forecasts for a lot of long range forecasters

Someone noted earlier and I agree that we should see some pretty good ratios toward the second half of the storm. 850mb temps start at around -4c and drop to -6 or 7c toward the second half. This is especially true over the far north where 850mb temps are mainly -6c to -8c. By the end, -8c does make into the atlanta/athens areas. These cold profiles could compensate for the lesser liquid amounts in the far north.

This is of course taken the euro at face value and this is far from guaranteed. This will be one of the biggest wins for the euro ever or end up being one of it's biggest busts.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Hello all! I am new to the board and I would like to thank all of you mets and others for the valuable insight on storms. I am a senior at college in Va. Beach, but currently im in the foothills of Western NC. I plan to attend Grad school at NCSU and earn my masters in atmospheric science. Im still trying to decide if i will see more snow here in WNC, or if there will be more in Norfolk... Really think the GFS will trend west starting with the 0Z run tonight

This is still an IMBY question and has been answered already. Read the past couple of pages.rolleyes.gif

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

I agree 100 percent...the maps on the EURO are so similar to that of 1993. Infact I believe the models had the SLP going up along the coast whein infact it went just inland. In this extreme type of solution, a GOM bomb is a very good indicator for massive snows here in Western North Carolina. Like Robert has been saying all along, QPF placement in this type of scenario could end up being irrelevant due to all the other dynamical factors involved.

Im here in Marion as well! (Actually closer to pleasant gardens) Hopefully this will be my first TRUE white christmas in my 23 years of living :) I really want to see the GFS agree with the EURO solution, then my excitement will be through the roof!

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weatherheels

weatherheels

Posted
Posted

I promise, we should probably set up a IMBY thread. Delete the posts here and answer them there but only after major model runs.

I can see where you're coming from, but if you start an IMBY thread I think it'll turn into a disaster. I mean, if people just sit back and read the threads the Mets and people with access let us all know about how much QPF for a lot of locations. Just be patient and you're question will more than likely get answered. I just don't want to see a pissing contest of a thread that is "imby" questions.... usually doesnt go well, but I understand what you're saying, and maybe the mods will like the idea... idk.

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