Mencken_Fan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm going to lay out my thoughts after the 12Z Euro today. Its still very early and the only thing that matters are trends at this point. Not exact deterministic solutions. I'll try to lay out the whole play from start Christmas Eve and onward, and for the entire Southeast. Whether its good or bad, so hang in there. Looking forward to it. After 50+ years in MD/DC/DE I'm accustomed to nor'easters but in my 8 years here in ILM I basically don't see 'em. We get a "baby nor'easter" once in a while, and that's about it. Perhaps we get something exceptional this time? As for snow..again it's obviously not like the Delaware coast. I've seen measurable snow here only once; and that was 3" (last winter.) Perhaps I may see a bit more soon? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Quick question if I may ask. Here on the NC/SC border near coast....besides the snow factor...what kinds of winds are you talking in a storm which the EURO or the GFS for that matter is showing? Should there be concerns of losing power? Some posters are talking blizzard like. Would this be like a tropical system in comparison? Thanks in advance. Pressure for the low offshore are pretty darn low so there would be wind for sure.......I imagine the OBX would get raked hard if the pressure of the low gets to 970ish not sure how bad that would be on the south beaches. If you guys end up with lots of snow and winds then power loss could be a issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Quick question if I may ask. Here on the NC/SC border near coast....besides the snow factor...what kinds of winds are you talking in a storm which the EURO or the GFS for that matter is showing? Should there be concerns of losing power? Some posters are talking blizzard like. Would this be like a tropical system in comparison? Thanks in advance. I don't recall the exact pressure of the surface low off CHS but it was deepening rapidly, so the winds are definitely going to be a factor where you are if the system does crawl up the coast like the Euro shows. If the phasing truly does occur where the Euro has it , I'd think the pressure will actually be lower than shown right there, but we have to wait to see if the Euro holds its ground or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was 8yrs old but remember thanks to pictures...may scan one and put it on. Roughly a 6" storm for NW SC Ye I'd take it! LOL I was 8 yrs old too, I also have some pics that I need to find showing 6-8 ft drifts, regardless of what that map shows as totals most of NC east of I-95 had 2-3 ft, we couldnt find anywhere less than 20-24" and most places it was deeper than a yardstick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea Mar. 1980 worked out good here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is a mistake. On the maps I am looking at its a 959, not 939. Yeah, my bad...looks like something happened with the models on Allan's site, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't recall the exact pressure of the surface low off CHS but it was deepening rapidly, so the winds are definitely going to be a factor where you are if the system does crawl up the coast like the Euro shows. If the phasing truly does occur where the Euro has it , I'd think the pressure will actually be lower than shown right there, but we have to wait to see if the Euro holds its ground or not. That absolutely amazes me! I have visions of Christmas decorations flying through the air. Scary thought. I would imagine our coast would take a big hit as well. Thanks for answering so quickly. You guys rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea Mar. 1980 worked out good here too Wow...that is one of my PERSONAL favorites. I was 8 hrs old and my father was dying from cancer. This was the last snowstorm with him, as he passed on. We got 8" (If I remember correctly). Wishing you all luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea Mar. 1980 worked out good here too Ahhhh looks like a "healthy" 6" if you ask me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That absolutely amazes me! I have visions of Christmas decorations flying through the air. Scary thought. I would imagine our coast would take a big hit as well. Thanks for answering so quickly. You guys rock! Yeah, while this storm will certainly be fun for the snow lovers, it will be a bad thing for places like Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Do not bother looking at the 12Z Ukie (out to 72) it's very suppressed. Will Dr. No live up to his old moniker, or shed that label for good? Ugh... now that we are starting to get some convergence that the phase might occur too late, I'm starting to think that the Euro is an outlier. Now that the gfs has given up on its "early phase" solution, it has a much more realistic result, a system that just phases too late offshore. We now need the GFS/Canadian/UKMET to phase about 12 hours earlier than they are currently depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My update is finally up: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ugh... now that we are starting to get some convergence that the phase might occur too late, I'm starting to think that the Euro is an outlier. Now that the gfs has given up on its "early phase" solution, it has a much more realistic result, a system that just phases too late offshore. We now need the GFS/Canadian/UKMET to phase about 12 hours earlier than they are currently depicting. At 54 hours on the ewall site for the Canadian run you can see the phase. Then it detachable? Is this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WRAL's in house model shows it going out to sea and no moisture reaching central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree with the above statement. It appears as if the phase will occur too late for a lot on this board in the mid south to the mountains, but would be prudent to hold off and see what the good Doc has to say before hammering the nail all the way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A late phase and a southern track sounds food for th eastern carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree with the above statement. It appears as if the phase will occur too late for a lot on this board in the mid south to the mountains, but would be prudent to hold off and see what the good Doc has to say before hammering the nail all the way in. Nail all the way in? Come on? You do not think its possible the GFS or GGEM cant shift a little further west in the amount of time left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My update is finally up: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ Like the map, but not sure why you have areas like Pitt County as rain to snow when all the model guidance shows us in the upper 20s with snow? To me it looks like highway 17 is going to be near the rain/snow line.. but if it takes an offshore track like the 12z GFS shows then all the state could get snow. Thanks for sharing thoughts and a map, will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is a mistake. On the maps I am looking at its a 959, not 939. It isnt incorrect. It isnt smoothed. That is correct data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it's inching its way toward the euro's big phase... doesn't the GFS truncate its resolution at 72 hrs, or did they extend it now? I think it doesn't until 192 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This, IMO Humble opinion is looking like a "blend" of 1989 and the March 93 storm... It would be devastating for MB/LR/ILM upwards along the coast to OBX.... All I can say is WOW! Still have that 100lb test line out there and reeling hard W/180 Marlin wire.... 3 Treble hooks LOCKED into it, fighting hard..... Now folks Lets get her close to the pier where WE can hook Her with a Pier gaff and bring on-board deck.. Local TV Mets are warming to the Idea though.. Local updated AFD in ILM, they are being conservative as always... Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 3 am Wednesday...not making a lot of changes to long term period. Guidance continues to slow down system emerging from the southwest. In addition guidance has continued the trend of a slower/deeper system affecting the southeast late during the Holiday weekend. GFS remains the fastest with European model (ecmwf) the slowest. Lowered probability of precipitation for Sat and extended chance probability of precipitation through Sat night into sun. Did not yet add any frozen precipitation given the large amount of uncertainty with respect to timing and track...but at the very least it is starting to look like snow may be an issue as the storm exits on sun. After the storm exits another Arctic air mass will be pushed into the deep south by large 500 mb trough. Dry Arctic air ensures no clouds or precipitation Monday and Tuesday but will also keep temperatures below to well below climatology. Extended MOS numbers area right around 40 and likely bias in favor of climatology...suggesting highs in the middle to upper 30s and lows in the teens. current Obs. 51.7 °F azeHumidity:100% Dew Point:52 °F Wind:Calm Wind Gust:0.0 mph Pressure:29.85 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro hath begun.. out to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think it doesn't until 192 now I know that one, but I thought there was also one outside the short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z a bit weaker with s/w at 12 hours.. meh. same position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro hath begun.. out to 6 Cue dramatic music Same speed but a bit weaker than 00Z at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Cue dramatic music Same speed but a bit weaker than 00Z at 12 Not a good sign... we really need to the s/w to stay the same intensity or we likely will end up with a later phase... I listed this as one of my concerns yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 24 hours the closed low in NW AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 actually spot on identical at 24... strength looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 again near identical at 30. Atlantic UL may actually be slightly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good start. Thanks for the quick updates... again near identical at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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