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October 2017 Discussion

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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rainsucks

rainsucks

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Actually looking at the longer range MJO, going into next month the change might come sooner than I originally thought, especially if the MJO takes up a position in phase 5 at a high magnitude like some of the current projections show.

The MJO was in its cold phase during the Feb torch... I see zero reasoning for a cold Nov right now. Cold Dec, I could see though.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, rainsucks said:

The MJO was in its cold phase during the Feb torch... I see zero reasoning for a cold Nov right now. Cold Dec, I could see though.

I do see reasoning especially if a strong jet from Pacific comes in and produces a major system, there will be a cold push behind that system that will produce a cooler final few days of October into November combine this with the MJO projection. Sure it was in a cold phase with the Feb torch but using an aberration to the mean isn't going to play here.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, rainsucks said:

Also, why would you want to waste all the cold in Nov? So pointless lol.

It can snow in November... This isn't Dallas or Nashville. Also who said the only cold of the winter is coming in November, you might want to check yourself a bit here since you clearly don't know what you are talking about.

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rainsucks

rainsucks

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It can snow in November... This isn't Dallas or Nashville. Also who said the only cold of the winter is coming in November, you might want to check yourself a bit here since you clearly don't know what you are talking about.

cold ≠ snow. 

Also, any appreciable amount of snow in Nov is very rare for most of this subforum.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

November is the onset of winter. Appreciable snow is rare but some snow is common. November always makes me think of bare trees with scattered leaves clinging in spots, charcoal, sometimes billowy gray skies with a few sunny days to showcase the low sun angle, and the first blasts of the winter to come. Sometimes October manages flakes but Nov is usually the first squalls and the first measurable snow. We don't need "cold in winter to get snow. We do need "cold" in November to get snow. I don't think of it as wasting cold, if it does in fact turn cold in November.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

I would like to post this here. I hope that Michsnowfreak and some of the rest of you can appreciate this snowy ash tree. Things have been in a wet, cool phase in Colorado since the Great Lakes region started in on the 90 degree heat phase in September. Fortunately, the roads were not slippery and snow-covered yesterday.

vt39Ryu.jpg

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

November is the onset of winter. Appreciable snow is rare but some snow is common. November always makes me think of bare trees with scattered leaves clinging in spots, charcoal, sometimes billowy gray skies with a few sunny days to showcase the low sun angle, and the first blasts of the winter to come. Sometimes October manages flakes but Nov is usually the first squalls and the first measurable snow. We don't need "cold in winter to get snow. We do need "cold" in November to get snow. I don't think of it as wasting cold, if it does in fact turn cold in November.

Appreciable snow in November is very common in areas that receive Lake Effect. Some of our biggest events have occurred in November. 

As a Lake Effect nut, does Michigan have any documentation of events each winter like KBUF has? If they don't they definitely should get it, I love looking back at the major events we've had.

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
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I picked up 1.14" of rain earlier today.  The models struggled a bit with the second surge of rain, going back and forth on whether or not we would get hit by it.  Ultimately, it turned up to the east, into Cyclone's area.  I was just hoping to see a inch, so I'm happy.

This boosts my October total to 2.75", already more than the last two full months, combined.  The weekend system could drop another 1-2".

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up 1.14" of rain earlier today.  The models struggled a bit with the second surge of rain, going back and forth on whether or not we would get hit by it.  Ultimately, it turned up to the east, into Cyclone's area.  I was just hoping to see a inch, so I'm happy.

This boosts my October total to 2.75", already more than the last two full months, combined.  The weekend system could drop another 1-2".

Easily. I am actually interested in some heavy rain potential due to anomalously high PWAT values and what seems to be a uninterrupted feed from the gulf. Especially given that the orientation of precip amounts on the models would suggest that we could have training thunderstorm activity. Although where this sets up can not be pinned at this range given the more mesoscale nature of the matter. Of course there is also a potential severe weather aspect with more than adequate deep layer shear values, although this is already being discussed elsewhere.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, rainsucks said:

cold ≠ snow. 

Also, any appreciable amount of snow in Nov is very rare for most of this subforum.

 

16 hours ago, Stebo said:

Obviously with the first part, the second part you are wrong about, signed day before Thanksgiving 2004.

 

Yep, that was a good one, but 3X as much hit my place just 2 yrs ago 11-21-15. Yeah, nobody gets snow in Nov. :rolleyes:

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

 

November 21st 2015.

17 Inches at my house.

My biggest storm in Howell since I moved there 27 years ago. 

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   BRIGHTON                M  11.5           14     42.53N    83.78W
   HARTLAND                M  14.0           16     42.66N    83.75W
   1 NE HOWELL             M  15.5           13     42.62N    83.92W
   HARTLAND                M  16.0            M     42.66N    83.75W
   HOWELL                  M  16.8           20     42.61N    83.94W

SnowWebGraphic_20151121_0800.png

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Nice soaking rain overnight, everything needed it. Was finally able to cut my grass. It hadn't been cut since the second week of July. 

 

Trees around here are everything from vibrant green, to bare with lots of colors between. Can't remember seeing anything like it.

Maybe some trees have their color changes more controlled by warm/cold temperatures, but others are controlled more by the daylight hours (independent of weather.)

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Can't get enough of the beautiful weather.  Temps the past few days have been seasonal with highs in the mid-50's and lows around 30. The potential exists late Sunday night for the first snow flakes, with grassy areas here in the higher elevations possibly seeing a little. 

It's quickly approaching snow season up here and it's starting to look more mid-Fall like.  Depending on where, some trees (especially maples) are close to bare, but in heavy oak areas, they're just peaking.  The leaves this season started turning right on time, but seem to be running 7-10 days late peaking... just an observation.

Spent the entire day outside.  Took the first pic around 2pm as I snuck up on a couple Spring fawns chowing, getting fat, and preparing for the seasonal migration out of the local snow belt  where it gets too deep for them to easily find food..  Second pic was taken just a few minutes ago as the sun was going down below the hill in my backyard.  Sure gets chilly after that! 

IMG_1132.thumb.JPG.2022b1cfedf700ca3f0547688898f42b.JPG

 

IMG_1157.thumb.JPG.0714abf37c16d52c7b22857db304a80c.JPG

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Can't get enough of the beautiful weather.  Temps the past few days have been seasonal with highs in the mid-50's and lows around 30. The potential exists late Sunday night for the first snow flakes, with grassy areas here in the higher elevations possibly seeing a little. 

It's quickly approaching snow season up here and it's starting to look more mid-Fall like.  Depending on where, some trees (especially maples) are close to bare, but in heavy oak areas, they're just peaking.  The leaves this season started turning right on time, but seem to be running 7-10 days late peaking... just an observation.

Spent the entire day outside.  Took the first pic around 2pm as I snuck up on a couple Spring fawns chowing, getting fat, and preparing for the seasonal migration out of the local snow belt  where it gets too deep for them to easily find food..  Second pic was taken just a few minutes ago as the sun was going down below the hill in my backyard.  Sure gets chilly after that! 

IMG_1132.thumb.JPG.2022b1cfedf700ca3f0547688898f42b.JPG

 

IMG_1157.thumb.JPG.0714abf37c16d52c7b22857db304a80c.JPG

Great shots!  Not sure we're going to get color that good down this way.  The leaves have been changing for a good month now, and many trees are partially bare already.  Kind of a weird mixture of mostly green trees, or partially bare trees that have both green and colorful leaves left.  Strange autumn as far as the colors go.

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rainsucks

rainsucks

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

 

 

Yep, that was a good one, but 3X as much hit my place just 2 yrs ago 11-21-15. Yeah, nobody gets snow in Nov. :rolleyes:

 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Well this obviously trounced the thought that there is no appreciable snow in November, such a ludicrous statement to begin with. 

I said it's RARE to get appreciable snow in November, I didn't say that it never happens. Keep twisting my words though.

Also, the Nov 2015 storm was unprecedented. You can't just use freak storms like that and say that appreciable snow in Nov is a common thing.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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24 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

 

I said it's RARE to get appreciable snow in November, I didn't say that it never happens. Keep twisting my words though.

Also, the Nov 2015 storm was unprecedented. You can't just use freak storms like that and say that appreciable snow in Nov is a common thing.

What does appreciable even mean in this context?  Put a number on it.

Big synoptic November snows are rare, but I'd put accumulating snow (like over 2") more in the uncommon category.

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rainsucks

rainsucks

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What does appreciable even mean in this context?  Put a number on it.

Big synoptic November snows are rare, but I'd put accumulating snow (like over 2") more in the uncommon category.

6"+ I'd call appreciable no matter the time of the year. 

How many 6"+ snowstorms have there even been in Chicago or Detroit's recorded history in the month of November? 

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