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Hoosier

October 2017 Discussion

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Looking at the 5th to 15th bringing another warm to very warm period. Ensembles seem to be pointing in that direction which would line up with the MJO projection as well.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Looking at the 5th to 15th bringing another warm to very warm period. Ensembles seem to be pointing in that direction which would line up with the MJO projection as well.

Yep.  Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere.  By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yep.  Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere.  By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days.

That would be sweet if it comes to fruition. I root for 70's anytime in October. After the first week of November, flip the switch to winter. (Can you tell that autumn is my least favorite season?)

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24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yep.  Warm anomalies look more pronounced the farther north you go, but it's probably a warmer than avg regime everywhere.  By the time the warmth really kicks in, it's awfully difficult to realize 90 degree temps, but could be plenty of 70s and 80s on warmer days.

Yeah 90s will be hard but I could see a nice stretch of upper 70s and 80s. Which by thay point would be 15 to 20 above normal.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah 90s will be hard but I could see a nice stretch of upper 70s and 80s. Which by thay point would be 15 to 20 above normal.

It's fantasy land, but the op GFS verbatim would actually suggest some areas flirting with 90 (upper 80s highs) by the 5th or 6th.  Although rare, history says it can happen in the first week of October, and can still get pretty close even into mid October.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's fantasy land, but the op GFS verbatim would actually suggest some areas flirting with 90 (upper 80s highs) by the 5th or 6th.  Although rare, history says it can happen in the first week of October, and can still get pretty close even into mid October.  

Yeah I noticed, I don't want to go that bold because it about 20-25 above normal by that point. It would be interesting to see if it happens. 2007 it did hit 90 here in Detroit.

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It's interesting that some people get irritated when people root for cold but then some do the same thing by rooting for warm lol.

 

I prefer lots of crisp air in October because i love Fall so much. Obviously with the averages and daylight continuously dropping, warmer than normal is not always a bad thing as long as it's not extreme. October is a month where yes it's possible to see a few actual hot days and likewise it can snow, but by and large it's a comfortable month regardless which side of normal it falls on.

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GFS has backed off on the cooldown to open the month.  Euro still hanging on to it.  In any event, the floodgates of warmth open up again (not just on the op runs, but ensembles generally agree).

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

GFS has backed off on the cooldown to open the month.  Euro still hanging on to it.  In any event, the floodgates of warmth open up again (not just on the op runs, but ensembles generally agree).

There are cracks in the foundation of the Euro's cool down too, the ensembles came in much warmer than the op. There was still a cool down for a couple of days but it is a cool down to 2-5 below normal then right back up above normal by the 3rd.

To be honest the only really cool day where highs might struggle to make it into the 60s locally is the 30th per the op Euro and the ensemble mean is 65 that day.

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12z GFS is like a total reversal in the super extended range.  Much cooler look... delays the big warmup.  Will be curious to see ensembles.

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47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z GFS is like a total reversal in the super extended range.  Much cooler look... delays the big warmup.  Will be curious to see ensembles.

Fluke run, probably a computing error if I had to guess. Remember the GFS doing something similar a few other times earlier in the year before going back to its original solution. Really wish these models were more consistent though. 

 

Looks like it has no ensemble support either.

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Don't know which thread to post this, but does anyone notice the gfs temp anomaly maps on tidbits have unrealistic heat bubbles over the big cities? No matter how warm or cold it is. Idk if that's the gfs idea of accounting for UHI but it looks ridiculous lol.

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Don't know which thread to post this, but does anyone notice the gfs temp anomaly maps on tidbits have unrealistic heat bubbles over the big cities? No matter how warm or cold it is. Idk if that's the gfs idea of accounting for UHI but it looks ridiculous lol.

It appears to be related to the recent GFS upgrade. I noticed on raw 2m temps it tends to do better in the cities on hot days but still too cool outside the cities. So on projected warm days in the medium range, the anomaly maps will be more pronounced over the cities for that reason, that the warmer output over the urban areas will make them father above normal there.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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It will be "fun" to see what happens if we go into the next ridge pattern without significant rains in the meantime, which looks possible in a number of areas.

How high can you go?  

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It will be "fun" to see what happens if we go into the next ridge pattern without significant rains in the meantime, which looks possible in a number of areas.

How high can you go?  

If we don't get any rain between now and then and we set up a similar pattern, I can't see us knocking too much off the temp. Definitely think 90 would be in range in many locations.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

If we don't get any rain between now and then and we set up a similar pattern, I can't see us knocking too much off the temp. Definitely think 90 would be in range in many locations.

I kind of can't believe the signal showing up on the ensembles and many of the op runs... coming so soon after the current stretch.  It won't be easy to match the absolute temps we've been seeing, but dang it's a warm look overall, and not just a 1 or 2 day thing.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I kind of can't believe the signal showing up on the ensembles and many of the op runs... coming so soon after the current stretch.  It won't be easy to match the absolute temps we've been seeing, but dang it's a warm look overall, and not just a 1 or 2 day thing.

Here's the thing, the signal is stronger this time than at this range for the current heat wave. I think people are brushing it back because it would be so soon but the ensembles don't usually show a signal this strong this close in to back off. It is going to be warm to hot after this brief cool snap.

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Another thing to watch is placement of the ridge too, if something forms in the Caribbean it could force the ridge northward even more as the system bucks into it. That could really get things to heat up even more.

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I'd rather have had this in July.... it's now wasting our best weather of the year.

kids don't want to play outside, A.C. bill is sky high and the grass is dead.

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and the lakes are cold. So it's pretty much worthless.

I'm booked at a Grayling campground for the second weekend in October and anything over 80 and I'm canceling.

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