rainsucks
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Everything posted by rainsucks
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I never made any claims about this past weekend's (short-lived) cold shot being overdone. The one we're about to see, however, was 100% overdone by guidance (in both intensity AND duration), which I made very clear last week. Regardless, people shouldn't be complaining about this April as it's been quite nice for the most part. Unlike 2018 when nearly the entire month was stuck in a wintry pattern.
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yep, there's been a clear warming trend for sure. Still receive a weenie from a useless poster for being objective, though.
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I'm not even convinced yet that next week's will pan out as currently modeled by guidance. I'm not saying it won't, but the models continue to overdo the intensity of cold shots time and time again, so I'm a bit skeptical.
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trolling needs to be more subtle than that, dude
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yep, comfortably above average as expected, with the past seven days being very warm across the region.
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unreal weather for mid-April
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would’ve been close to the record high at ORD today if it weren’t for the lake breeze.
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looks well above average IMO, possibly even flirting with record warmth at times.
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couldn't care less about the eclipse tbh, just looking forward to the warmth.
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Probably won't see any extreme warmth for the first half of the month, but you can't deny that it will be solidly above average.
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Looking to be another nice month overall, with models once again trending much warmer in the extended.
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at least it's looking likely that the day of the eclipse will be quite mild.
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horrific
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April 2024 temperature forecast contest
rainsucks replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA: +3.5 NYC: +3.7 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +3.5 ATL: +2.5 IAH: +2.1 DEN: +2.4 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +1.5 -
no shot at that, but top 5 warmest March is certainly in play for many.
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ALL long-range modeling has been severely cold biased for quite some time now and cannot be trusted. bluewave has made some very informative posts on why this is the case and what can be done to improve the accuracy of long-range forecasting going forward.
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until something changes in the Pacific, we’re not going to have a cold pattern lock into place for any extended period of time, sorry.
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yeah, it’s truly been out of control this season.
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if you’re referring to early next week’s cold shot, that looks to be quite short-lived. Mild Pacific air will flood the mid-section of the country shortly afterwards.
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still looks above average to me. I mean the warmth probably won't be as extreme as it has been (relative to average), but it looks mild overall.
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from this: to this, in just a couple runs:
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you can’t really ignore the MJO imo. phase 6 is quite a strong warm signal for this time of year even when taking into account the ENSO. don’t really care what that awful new AI model is showing at hour 336 or whatever.
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MJO really doesn't support it, but we'll see.
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at this point, I'll believe it when I see it. Same exact thing was supposed to occur last month and we all know how that turned out.
