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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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21 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? 

You can read about how MIMIC works at CIMMS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/description.html

Source microwave imagery is readily obtainable from NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Click on the "85GHz" elements - green are passes in the last 6 hours. The percent at the left is how much of the "region" was captured in the pass (sometimes low percents still give you the core of the storm, but often they miss).

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Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...100 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...OUTER EYEWALL OF MARIA LASHING ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 90 mph (144 km/h) with a wind gust to 127 mph
(204 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake
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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall...

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

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5 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

Yea that inner eyewall is being stubborn with letting go but def has last some of its moxy. I think Maria has it her full potential. I think we see a gradual rise in pressure as ERC attempts to finish and winds come down some. I'm thinking that we could see a landfall strength in PR anywhere from 155-165

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4 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 :unsure:.....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR....

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 :unsure:.....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR....

Every MPH counts extra at this point.  Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.

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11 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Every MPH counts extra at this point.  Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.

the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement.

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3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement.

Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one.

I stand by my original post though.  Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160.  You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf

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The latest euro still takes Maria out to sea, but models are still inconsistent with Jose's future track/strength/influence.

Latest recon pass suggests a pressure of about 914 mb, and the max wind has come down a fair amount as the inner eyewall's energy is gradually transferred outward.  The max SFMR on the last pass was 132 mph.  I think the official 165 mph status is generous at this point.

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1 hour ago, bobbutts said:

Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one.

I stand by my original post though.  Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160.  You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf

At that stage though there would probably be total failure in either case.  Otherwise, there would be a reason to extend the SS scale to Cat 6 at higher intensities (like the 185 mph landfall of Irma on Barbuda.)  It's interesting that the original Fujita scale actually had provisions for an F6, but it was later dropped because the damage from winds of a certain speed could not be distinguished from winds of somewhat lower speeds. (The first Moore, OK tornado was on the threshold of the provisional higher category).   I assume the same is true of the SS scale.

 

 

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