Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 1st one is rescue of people on capsized boat 2nd one looks like flooding to the roofs...in Dominican Republic ? they've barely gotten any media coverage yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Maria has Carolina on her mind according to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Maria has Carolina on her mind according to the GFS Further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, 87storms said: looks like it'll require being on the left side of that cone from the beginning otherwise it will need to take a pretty hard left turn. I wouldn't necessarily follow that median line period. I'm just saying it's interesting. The NHC doesn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Gfs coming in slower and more to the west .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Is it okay to assume that even if it were to go further west, it can't make the turn any further north? (What's stopping it? I'm an amateur weather geek, so I'm not sure what I'm looking at, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Can this area of intensifying storms effect Maria? http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 18z GFS brings hurricane conditions to the easternmost outer banks, and TS conditions to far eastern NC. Definitely a good deal further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Looks like the CMC was on to something ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear. Could still end up a decent rainmaker even without a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Looks like the CMC was on to something ... Might want to wait for some consistency and for other models to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she'll be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose. The cooler waters are only much further north from the Chesapeake & Delaware Bays on north and east. Down along the SE coast, it is still mighty toasty (latest update I could find which was from 9/21/17) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 5+ more days of sitting and spinning. Winds are bound to spread out further than they currently are . Which means landfall isn't even required to have hurricane conditions along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saltydog Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 As I read through this I wanted to share a resource so everyone has access to the same information as Don. Nothing he's doing in his analysis is special he just selects 100 nm v. the normal 65 it gives you. You can type in Long/Lat and give his analysis at will. Be well. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 While recon is not finding winds that support a 110 kts cane, it's also showing a decrease in central pressure. This is probably related to an eyewall restructuring that is happening now. MW imagery now shows a fairly decent eyewall, especially in the north half and IR shows very cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. This is probably the best Maria has looked since leaving Puerto Rico behind. Another thing of note is that shear is shown as just below 20 kts again, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Can this area of intensifying storms effect Maria? http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpaThose are storms in association with the upper low developing over the SE and Florida. Can it affect Maria? Absolutely. However, it needs to retrograde SW to have a significant impact on how much longitude Maria can obtain with respect to the SE coast. Ideally, it would be more influential if it was deeper and had a better presence in the 500 mb layer as it retrograded SW. But in any event, it is there in the 300-200 mb layer. It is the flow around that feature that has assisted in some periods of 10-20 kts of south-southwesterly shear over Maria today. But it is that feature and any rebuilding of heights NE of Maria that may draw it in closer to the N. Carolina coast. If that indeed happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely... Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z... Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely... Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z... Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF.... Whatever you are using is really slow right now. Tropical Tidbits is up to 276. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017092218&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely... Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z... Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF.... Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. Concerning. But it's still early. Trends were definitely significantly west today, but that's also coming from a consensus that was well ots. Really want to see more trends west on the euro/EPS before confidence can increase in regards to a potential LF. We're in that "in-between state" if you will, since we just lost a lot of confidence in the ots track... Now it's low confidence in both outcomes. Just caution for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. Verbatim, the closest the eye would get is @ 108 hrs and up to 132 it brushes up the east coast like a nor'easter (but as they say, the trend is your friend so it would be interesting to see if the trend continues, as we saw that with Irma and the westward shifts) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Jose seems to already be moving east according to the water vapor loop. The 18z GFS didn't have it pushing east until 12hr. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Jose seems to already be moving east according to the water vapor loop. The 18z GFS didn't have it pushing east until 12hr. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Was thinking the same thing. looks like a trough is digging in currently. Could be the kicker for Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanBarg Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA... Has this been successfully done before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, SeanBarg said: CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA... Has this been successfully done before? Here's a tweet about it and some info on the program - https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/wheels-up-noaas-p3-aircraft-is-up-in-the-air-and-on-its-way-to-fly-inside-hurricane-maria/ http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/maria2017/20170922H1.html It was used in 2014 in Eduoard - http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/10761/NOAA-releases-unmanned-aircraft-inside-Hurricane-Edouard.aspx http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/coyote/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Jose seems to already be moving east according to the water vapor loop. The 18z GFS didn't have it pushing east until 12hr. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Looks can be deceiving. It’s always best to use microwave when recon isn’t available. I circled where the wind shift is on the most recent pass. Looks NW to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Looks can be deceiving. It’s always best to use microwave when recon isn’t available. I circled where the wind shift is on the most recent pass. Looks NW to me. That's Maria, not Jose. Read my post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: That's Maria, not Jose. Read my post again. Oops, my bad! We’ve had way too many recently the fatigue is definitely setting in for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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