Morris Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 89kts SFMR cat 2 970mb hurricane per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The euro looks close to the NYC area and stalls out ... another click or two west are we looking like a nice size storm with some strong winds and storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think they are assuming an overcorrection right now. I think the closest this gets is reaching 41N/71W then turning. That's close enough NYC and LI probably get 25-35mph winds and a rainy day. Move that 50-60 miles east though and it's mostly a miss. I think they're also keeping this too strong. I guess this may be a 60mph system in 72 hours but if it is you're probably talking about a 15 mile area on the east side Spot on, everyone seems to be discounting how fast this will fall apart once it hits the 70 degree water beyond the gulf stream. Any winds of note will be confined to it's ese side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: There will be plenty of upwelling in either case so a further south loop may be more significant for what it does to the ridge ahead of Maria. Very complex forecast. I agree. Upwelling is an issue. Seperately, I'm not an expert on ocean physics by any stretch, but I wonder if upwelling is less impactful immediately near/over the Gulf Stream, as surface volume replacement could be more horizontal than vertical (coming from below surface depths)...Anyway just a thought, and a moot question for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not sure if it can loop that far south just yet. It would have to get back below 38N to reach the Gulf Stream again. Yea neither am I. I'm just raising it as a possibility. The weak steering currents, and the trend for guidance to slow him further over time has caused me to consider such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nam is coming in further north with the precip compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 more pic from the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 That would be some good rain for A lot of the Mid Atlantic and SNE if that played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I don't think there's been enough emphasis placed on the synoptic scale gradient wind; not the wind being generated by Jose himself. All guidance is showing robust high pressure from Nova Scotia to Southern Quebec around 1020 mb. If Jose makes a close pass, it's likely going to be quite (surprisingly) windy throughout coastal New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic. Gusts could exceed 40 mph throughout a large area of SNE, even away from the coast per the 0z Euro. Low end to Moderate TS conditions are being shown on the 0z Euro in Coastal NJ, eastern LI and SE MA/islands. This isn't unrealistic given the wall of HP to our north/northeast. So despite a weakening Jose, and a path ots, the blocking in place indicates we have much more than just Jose to consider while trying to determine wind related impacts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The GFS definitely shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The GFS definitely shifted west 38 minutes ago, snow1 said: Gfs remains east 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's not a miss for NYC Seriously guys..... how about we show some maps to portray that outcome of a model run instead of these one liners!!! It really would make it a whole lot easier for everyone... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The Ukie with the stall then rot SE of LI to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro has some pretty good 850 mb winds over NYC area at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro has some pretty good 850 mb winds over NYC area at 72 hours. And over 2" of rain, very close to a major hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And over 2" of rain, very close to a major hit there. How we looking on possible surge ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 How much wind for long Island? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I don't know why my post got deleted earlier I mentioned that the GFS is a miss for NYC and west and I don't agree with it I think the precipitation field expands as this tropical cyclone will become extra tropical by the time it reaches our latitude. Regardless the moderator 3 posted me for no reason here I don't get the hate. I get along with everybody and I don't post that much unless we have an impending snowstorm. Take a look at today's 12z GFS still plenty of wind though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The 12z Euro is projecting that the storm will be taking on hybrid characteristics while it approaches us. That means that it is also taking energy from baroclinic forces. The other models are not seeing this happen to the degree that the Euro is. This could result in greater impacts with higher winds. The 12z Euro is projecting wind gusts at the surface (10m) to be 40 - 60 MPH in gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on the south shore beaches and across eastern LI (EuroWx). That would argue for a Tropical storm watch. I will add the Euro is projecting the storm to be a full fledged hurricane Tuesday evening centered 200 miles to the east of Ocean City, MD with winds gusting to 92 MPH at 10m. This would make for some tremendous seas and serious coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Tropical Storm Watch issued for the NJ coastal waters URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL AFFECT OUR WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 2 AM TUESDAY TO ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY. ANZ450>455-181000- /O.CAN.KPHI.SW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-170918T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1012.170917T1953Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM JOSE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUSTAINED 34 KNOT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KNOTS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF 34 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON THE THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Watches issued for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Watches issued for the coast That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters Some places are under Tropical Storm Watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moleson Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Some places are under Tropical Storm Watches Can you be more vague? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters My point and click forecast says Tropical Storm Conditions possible now for late Tuesday. So I assume a watch will be up for Long Island soon. Also, some nice breakers coming in today, some to 5-6 feet. And the high tide is making it pretty far up the beach already. There'll be some coastal flooding if models like the Euro are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I know it's a little confusing because the watches for the waters came first. But if you're ever not sure, just click on the Public Advisory on the NHC website. Yes, there are currently "regular" TS Watches up from the DE coast to SE MA, including most of Long Island but excluding NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore watersIncorrect, New Jersey coast, Delaware coast and Nassau and Suffolk counties Long Island are under a Ts watch. Additionally so is SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Even with Jose likely to remain offshore, its expanding size suggests that tropical storm conditions may occur from the Jersey Shore on Long Island, coastal Connecticut out to southeastern Massachusetts. The South Shore of Long Island, all of Suffolk County, and southeastern New England (eastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket are very likely to experience such conditions. The area that may experience tropical storm conditions will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain. The area at greatest risk of tropical storm conditions will probably see 1.00"-3.00" rain with some locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I don't know why my post got deleted earlier I mentioned that the GFS is a miss for NYC and west and I don't agree with it I think the precipitation field expands as this tropical cyclone will become extra tropical by the time it reaches our latitude. Regardless the moderator 3 posted me for no reason here I don't get the hate. I get along with everybody and I don't post that much unless we have an impending snowstorm. Take a look at today's 12z GFS still plenty of wind though It would seem that at least one professional forecaster agrees with you: https://www.facebook.com/craigallenwx/posts/10155717439772720 An excerpt: This is a little out of character for me since I'm usually the one who's too fast to dismiss storms, especially when everyone fawns over the Euro but if you've been following the EURO, UKMET, the Navy's stepchild NAVGEM and the JMA, you know they are much closer and DO come close to a US landfall, somewhere out towards Montauk to Cape Cod/Nantucket. The EURO has been extremely consistent in a much closer call, slower to arrive and slower to leave. I will add that the EURO was the one that locked in on the west coast of Florida for Irma, rather than the east coast. It seems to handle the strength of the Atlantic and sub tropical ridges very well. These tropical systems are steered around the periphery of these ridges, looking for a weak spot or opening to sneak into it. THE GFS and to some extent, theh NAM (which really shouldn't be used for tropical forecasting anyway) always underplay the strength of the ridge and therefore turns storms to the right too fast. One more point....ALL models are honing in on a very important aspect. Jose will be moving north into cooler waters. As I explained yesterday, this will tend to weaken him from a 90mph + storm now, to under hurricane status by the time he gets to our latitude. However, this will make his engine (the eye) sputter and this in turns allows the storm to weaken BUT also spread out over a larger distance since it s no longer tightly wound around the center. This would allow bands of wind and rain (squalls) to extend out over 100 miles from the center so that also leads me to believe that Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday could get stormy for awhile, especially eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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