Tropical Storm Jose

[donsutherland1]

Jose is a gymnast. The Category 1 hurricane is currently performing an anti-cyclonic loop out in the open Atlantic. In the days ahead, it is seemingly destined to become Earth's version of Jupiter's famous red spot. If the 9/13 6z run of the GFS is to be believed, Jose will become a permanent feature over the Atlantic Ocean, persisting through that model's entire 384-hour forecast period as the storm's steering currents again break down.

Not surprisingly, all of this seems to have confused the models to some extent. Overnight, the guidance's run-to-run continuity broke down. Gone were the UKMET's forecast of Florida landfall and the ECMWF's and GFS's out to sea consensus. Back was an earlier GFS idea of East Coast landfall.

In cases where such uncertainty exists, climatology becomes more important. Until the guidance pins down the details of the evolving synoptic pattern and the interactions among the various synoptic features, confidence in any specific solution is low. During such times, climatology can provide some useful insight.

Unlike the shattered model stability, the probabilistic outcomes from historic climatology associated with hurricanes in the vicinity of Jose has changed little over the past 24 hours. Of the 39 hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 am position, 8 or 21% made U.S. landfall (yesterday's 5 am figure was 19%). Landfall in eastern Canada was about 40% higher than U.S. landfall, with Newfoundland and Labrador (8 landfalls) being the favored spot for such landfall.

So, at least for now, U.S. landfall remains a low probability scenario. Landfall in Canada is more likely than U.S. landfall, but no landfall whatsoever remains somewhat more likely than any landfall (U.S. or Canada). Much uncertainty exists.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

So this is way more of a "Perfect Storm" 1991 kind of scenario than it is a Sandy-like scenario.

 

I'd caution against making comparisons to either at this point to avoid being labeled a sensationalist, but that's just me. In short, it's still too early to say. I see little similarity to either right now.

The significant high latitude blocking is something both systems had. So there's that. The glaring difference at this point is the lack of troughing over the eastern CONUS. But as I said before, it's still early so both aspects could change to bear more or less resemblance to those systems...

 

 

[olafminesaw]

I'd pay good money to see the Euro or 0z GFS happen, just because of how hilarious that kind of track would be. Has a storm ever made a full loop into the US before?

[Paragon]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'd caution against making comparisons to either at this point to avoid being labeled a sensationalist, but that's just me. In short, it's still too early to say. I see little similarity to either right now.

The significant high latitude blocking is something both systems had. So there's that. The glaring difference at this point is the lack of troughing over the eastern CONUS. But as I said before, it's still early so both aspects could change to bear more or less resemblance to those systems...

 

 

No I just mean in terms of looping around offshore and the fact that both transitioned to extratropical with an expanding windfield, not in terms of impact of course.  Storms of this type rarely make landfall at our latitude.  The lack of troughing that you mentioned has perhaps something to do with this being much earlier in the season, as both the Perfect Storm and Sandy occurred in late October.  In terms of impact, I've always felt this to be more like Felix, which means days of high surf, rip tides, etc.  Note that none of these events produced much rainfall for our region, but a lot of wind (and in Felix's case, not even that- but Felix never reached our latitude- it shot straight east from Hatteras after doing its loop and stall.)

This might have been a far higher impact system in the winter, when you actually want an offshore looping track to produce prodigious snowfall totals.

 

[Paragon]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'd pay good money to see the Euro or 0z GFS happen, just because of how hilarious that kind of track would be. Has a storm ever made a full loop into the US before?

Mostly wintertime storms.

 

[CTSkywarn]

I'm locking in the 0Z Navgem solution. That model has been fairly consistent, along with the cmc.


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[PWMan]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

Strong post. Thanks for the analysis.

[MJO812]

12z Model Tracks

[USCG RS]

And climatologically, looping systems like these rarely if ever make landfall.  In the winter we'd be excited by something like this because it could mean a lot of snow falling over a long amount of time (some of our biggest noreasters have looped-  a la 1888, 1978 and 2010.)

If we are going to get anything of substance, we need a trough to swing through. He's not going to be all that strong up here, especially as the sheer strengthens once more. Additionally, we have to see how much intensity he can recover. If he regains a good core structure and deepens in the Bahamas region with the warm SSTs, then he has a chance to be significant, but we still need the trough. The ULL will not only pull him in, but transition him in such a way that he can continue to strengthen/maintain at the mid lattidtiudes while encountering strong sheer and much cooler SSTs. Yes there is a wall to his East, but if he just meanders there, he dies off the EC, and quickly (not that that is a bad thing).

[thess]

32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z Model Tracks

Go home Jose, you're drunk.

[kdennis78]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Jose is a gymnast. The Category 1 hurricane is currently performing an anti-cyclonic loop out in the open Atlantic. In the days ahead, it is seemingly destined to become Earth's version of Jupiter's famous red spot. If the 9/13 6z run of the GFS is to be believed, Jose will become a permanent feature over the Atlantic Ocean, persisting through that model's entire 384-hour forecast period as the storm's steering currents again break down.

Not surprisingly, all of this seems to have confused the models to some extent. Overnight, the guidance's run-to-run continuity broke down. Gone were the UKMET's forecast of Florida landfall and the ECMWF's and GFS's out to sea consensus. Back was an earlier GFS idea of East Coast landfall.

In cases where such uncertainty exists, climatology becomes more important. Until the guidance pins down the details of the evolving synoptic pattern and the interactions among the various synoptic features, confidence in any specific solution is low. During such times, climatology can provide some useful insight.

Unlike the shattered model stability, the probabilistic outcomes from historic climatology associated with hurricanes in the vicinity of Jose has changed little over the past 24 hours. Of the 39 hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 am position, 8 or 21% made U.S. landfall (yesterday's 5 am figure was 19%). Landfall in eastern Canada was about 40% higher than U.S. landfall, with Newfoundland and Labrador (8 landfalls) being the favored spot for such landfall.

So, at least for now, U.S. landfall remains a low probability scenario. Landfall in Canada is more likely than U.S. landfall, but no landfall whatsoever remains somewhat more likely than any landfall (U.S. or Canada). Much uncertainty exists.

I really enjoy your statistical analyses and level head. Thanks for all of the extra work you do to teach the public that visits this forum. You're the best.

[NJwx85]

The GFS is quite a bit Northeast of the 00z run by 48 hours. 

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is quite a bit Northeast of the 00z run by 48 hours. 

Looks more Euro'ish for sure, still trending with Irma cutoff though.

[Amped]

No attempted to stall or get captured this run. Just rides the 300mb streamlines.

[Vice-Regent]

Probably now too far east to be picked up by the first trough on 9/20 or so. The setup keeps getting more interesting even though it's getting there in a different manner.

[MJO812]

12Z Ukie has Jose near Hatteras

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

[NJwx85]

Almost all of the 12z GEFS members are SW of the OP at 72hrs, so the GFS probably over corrected East.

[NJwx85]

The 12z Euro OP is delayed due to technical issues, however through hr 45 it's actually a good bit Southwest of the 00z run.

[Derecho!]

2 hours ago, Sportybx said:

The Nav has it Eastern LI into RI next Tuesday .  I know the Nav isn't a long range model or isn't that great but all the models pretty much blew for Irma... still fun to talk about tho ... 

The ECMWF was tremendous for Irma and vastly better than everything else. 

[NJwx85]

Both the 12z HWRF and HMON get Jose fairly close to the 40/70 Benchmark.

[jbenedet]

Euro takes him 100 miles south of MTK at 168 hr...

 

[MJO812]

12z Euro retrogrades Jose close to Long Island

 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z Euro retrogrades Jose close to Long Island

 

at 168... then moves SW back towards the Mid Atlantic

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z Euro retrogrades Jose close to Long Island

 

lol this is awesome- people were talking about how great the Euro was with Irma (meanwhile it busted badly close in to the event- it was too far west), and now the Euro shows a hit.  What day/hour does it show it close to Long Island?

[Paragon]

Just now, yoda said:

at 168... then moves SW back towards the Mid Atlantic

what a generous solution, it gives something to everyone......

[Sportybx]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

lol this is awesome- people were talking about how great the Euro was with Irma (meanwhile it busted badly close in to the event- it was too far west), and now the Euro shows a hit.  What day/hour does it show it close to Long Island?

144-168 

[JC-CT]

It would be pretty pathetic by that time anyway.

[yoda]

Weeeeeeeeeeeee

 

 

 

 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

144-168 

and the closest it gets is 100 miles from MTP?

[NJwx85]

Euro ends up landfalling in a similar position as Sandy, however it's weakening the whole way. At least it's a good rain maker for parts of SNE and the NYC area.