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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Received a whole .10" from that batch this morning, Maybe we get more from Nate's Rems

Doubt we got 0.05" in Augusta (and even that much would be the biggest event at home since Sept. 7.)  We'll see if we got any measurable at home, as the colors on radar were less pretty there.  GYX talking 1/2-1" from the late Nate; yesterday it was 1-2".  Slip-sliding away?

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Doubt we got 0.05" in Augusta (and even that much would be the biggest event at home since Sept. 7.)  We'll see if we got any measurable at home, as the colors on radar were less pretty there.  GYX talking 1/2-1" from the late Nate; yesterday it was 1-2".  Slip-sliding away?



Probably, Models seem to want to shred it as it moves NE into New England.
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14 hours ago, tamarack said:

Doubt we got 0.05" in Augusta (and even that much would be the biggest event at home since Sept. 7.)  We'll see if we got any measurable at home, as the colors on radar were less pretty there.  GYX talking 1/2-1" from the late Nate; yesterday it was 1-2".  Slip-sliding away?

Morning AFD looking at "less than half an inch" in the northerly parts of their CWA.  Got 0.01" yesterday - had to meniscus-measure (by eyeball) to decide whether that or "T" was the best choice.  Ended the run of dropless days at 15.

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From BOX's AFD
 
 

"Sun night into Mon night

Models suggest some drying from the north moves in Sun evening
before deeper moisture from the south returns late Sun night and
persisting through Mon night. Details of the forecast during this
period will depend on the eventual track of Nate`s remnant low
pressure but ingredients will be in place for some heavy rainfall.
Anomalous PWAT plume over 2 inches which is 3+ SD above normal moves
into region with a modest low level jet. Timing is still uncertain
but it appears there will be 2 periods of heavier rainfall, one
during Mon as initial low level jet and influx of higher PWAT air
moves in, then a second period Mon night assocd with a more robust
low level jet moving up from the south. There is some elevated
instability so isold t-storms will be possible. In fact, will have
to monitor potential for an isold strong storm Mon night, especially
given strong low level shear and helicity in tropical environment
with high dewpoints and low LCL`s. Surface instability will be the
limiting factor. Preliminary forecast suggests potential for
rainfall of 1-2" with locally higher amounts possible which could
lead to localized urban flooding if heavy rain falls in a short time
period. However, there is uncertainty with the axis of heaviest
rainfall which could still set up west of SNE. Very humid conditions
with dewpoints near 70"

 

I'm leaning towards the under on rainfall amounts

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a cool day here in the lakes region. Glad we here. 

Yeah despite temps only getting to the mid-60s up here, the dews approaching 60F are more noticeable. 

With the higher dews and southerly flow overnight, it'll be hard to drop the temps too much.  This should be a very warm night relative to climo. 

Normal low here is 38F today...and I doubt we get too much lower than the mid to upper 50s with these dew points.  Possibly a +15 to +20 type night.

 

Untitled.jpg.5c271235cbce52e06f61fb4d7c7accf7.jpg

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah despite temps only getting to the mid-60s up here, the dews approaching 60F are more noticeable. 

With the higher dews and southerly flow overnight, it'll be hard to drop the temps too much.  This should be a very warm night relative to climo. 

Normal low here is 38F today...and I doubt we get too much lower than the mid to upper 50s with these dew points.  Possibly a +15 to +20 type night.

BTV with October swamp azz 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah 68/64 there... no thanks.  That southerly flow just rips the warmth and moisture pooling northward up the valley. 

Not that it's much different here at 62/60...relative to normal it's about the same as BTV.

61/60 here and the fog has set in.

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