Major Hurricane Irma

[McQuackleton]

 

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Much greater impact for the coast however

 

Absolutelt. This would be catastrophic for the entire southeasr coast of Florida (very expensive and vulnerable real estate, of course).

[Tatamy]

People are already starting to leave southern and coastal FL.  I just checked out the traffic map on Bing for Florida and I-75 on the west coast is already showing heavy traffic northbound in places from Fort Myers up to Inverness as people flee.

[larrye]

Well, this latest 12z GFS run should serve as an adequate answer to the poster who was asking why the NHC didn't move the cone more to the east after the 00z and 06z model runs.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

People are already starting to leave southern and coastal FL.  I just checked out the traffic map on Bing for Florida and I-75 on the west coast is already showing heavy traffic northbound in places from Fort Myers up to Inverness as people flee.

They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet.

[jojo762]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Much greater impact for the coast however

 

Absolutely. This would be catastrophic for the entire southeasr coast of Florida (very expensive and vulnerable real estate, of course).

[Raine1212]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet.

I agree with you on that, we are hearing nothing here, no one has a clue

[bluewave]

Similar run to the 0z Euro where the western eyewall made to the SE FL Coast.

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

The Canadian Landfall is way up the coast in North Carolina then continues up the coast going inland around the Delmarva - just remember being 6 days out this track is still on the table

[pazzo83]

Per the San Juan radar, looks like the eye is jussssst gonna miss the northern PR coast.  San Juan will definitely be in the southern eye wall however.

[FLO]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet.

It is all over the news here in Columbia, SC. SC will be prepared. 

[Ser Pounce]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet.

Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC.

[Raine1212]

1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC.

A lot of stuff I continue to see is OTS, maybe a little rain, I am 147 miles from the coast, and we flood with a bad thunderstorm. I am thankful I found your site

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC.

Thats good to hear

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC.

I'm concerned about Georgia where no major hurricane has come ashore since 1898. Lack of experience with hurricanes may well lead to a lack of preparedness, complacency, and/or overconfidence among some of the residents living in coastal areas or adjacent islands.

[UpstateSCBud]

SC Governor has just declared a State of Emergency for South Carolina.

[pazzo83]

I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians.

[pazzo83]

Question for the meteos here - how much are we learning by the fact that we have a 185mph Cat 5 cane totally visible on a US-based dual-pol radar?

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians.

I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then...

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians.

Maybe older ones, but that is 28 years ago, a generation ago.

[Raine1212]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm concerned about Georgia where no major hurricane has come ashore since 1898. Lack of experience with hurricanes may well lead to a lack of preparedness, complacency, and/or overconfidence among some of the residents living in coastal areas or adjacent islands.

yes, we are not experienced even inland, I don't even have a clue what needs to be done. Our area is already suffering gas shortage from Harvey. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Hurricane hunter flight about to take off -

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Starting to see a relatively high amount of lightning activity in the eyewall as it approaches the San Juan radar. Irma wants to be like her older brother Harvey.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Wow]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then...

Yep.  You can find the storm surge mark on the concrete walls.

[McQuackleton]

Can someone post an image of the wind speeds around each quadrant? I'm curious to see the differences. Thanks!

[friedmators]

I know its only 12-18 hours out but the 0Z Euro location looks to be dead nuts on for the current time. 

[Ser Pounce]

Just now, psv88 said:

I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then...

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, PSLwx said:

Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking]

I don't think this point has been emphasized enough. The gridlock is going to be incomprehensible as folks try to escape northward out of the peninsula...they need to impose a travel deadline.

[Tatamy]

In August 1992 Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead, FL as a Cat 5. Destruction in the southern Miami suburbs was unprecedented. In April 1993 my wife and I took a vacation to south Florida. We drove around the Homestead area. At the time there were undeveloped areas along with ravaged neighborhoods. We drove down Palm Dr. (SW 344th St.) which is the road that leads to the Turkey Point Nuclear Plant. Destruction in the area was total (The nuclear plant was okay and back in operation). Entire forests were ripped out of the ground by the roots and the trees were laying on their sides. The tops of the trees were pointed towards the east as the center of the storm had passed slightly to the north of that street.  Of course they were dead. If you are familiar with south Florida it is topsoil layered on top of coral. The coral has the consistency of concrete and has a tan color. The trees that I saw were covered in this tan dust - it had an apocalyptic look to it. In any case if you live or know people who live in South Florida you should make plans on where you are going to weather the storm. If you have a concrete safe room in your home you might be okay. If you do not you are not going to be safe there. If you are in a low lying area that can flood plan to leave. Same goes if you in the Keys. Know where your neighborhood shelter is located. If you are going to drive north it is 5 hours and 30 minutes to Jacksonville and 4 hours to Orlando - without traffic. Don't wait until later in the week to make this decision. The highways will be jammed once people start to realize what this storm can do. While it is not definite that the storm will make a direct hit in the Miami area the simple fact is that numerous model runs are indicating exactly that. While we all know that the rule regarding these forecast models is to wait until we get closer to the event the simple fact is by the time a Hurricane Watch is issued it will probably be too late to leave due the amount of traffic that will be going on to the highways.          

[bdgwx]

2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Can someone post an image of the wind speeds around each quadrant? I'm curious to see the differences. Thanks!