Major Hurricane Irma

[JC-CT]

Here is something you don't see every day:

[Tullioz]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This thread is moving really fast, so my apologies if this has been covered, but St. Thomas and St. John's in the USVI really look like they are going to take a nasty hit.  

I have a friend who lives in Charlotte Amalie and we were chatting around midnight local time last night and we both agreed at the time that it looked like the eye would pass north of St. Thomas. Looking at satellite and radar right now, that no longer seems to be the case. I haven't been able to reach her to get an update, but I'm pretty sure she is too busy making final preparations to be chatting with friends and family at the moment. 

[Derecho!]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has beating everything including the official.

 

 

 

It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 

[DCAlexandria]

It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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[ag3]

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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LOL. Euro has been terrible past hour 72. Yes, it's scoring well inside of that but it's been the worst model by far outside of that. Very erratic with thousand mile shifts each run.

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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Yeah, at hours T+192, T+216, and T+240....I suspect that if the U of Albany graphic went out to those leads, Euro would continue it's dominance.  The stats don't lie.

[Z-Cast]

2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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Verification scores through 120HR tell the story though. It's really not close.

[McQuackleton]

8 minutes ago, Jfreebird said:

It may be just me but the last 2 frames on the IR is showing a wiggle to the NW a little more

 

Not a NW wobble, sorry.

[Isotherm]

2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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The GFS was one of the only models to oppose the Cuba landfall scenario, and has been generally more consistent with the medium term track into the east coast. Yes, the euro has superior verification possibly with short term track, but as far as practical application of model data, I think the GFS has been superior with long term track with Irma.

[MN Transplant]

Remember, there is only verification to this point.  So, the Euro has been by far the best model at the track up until now.  That doesn't speak to any flip-flopping in the future (such as landfall points).  But it does speak to the inadequacy of the other models in comparison.

[Derecho!]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

LOL. Euro has been terrible past hour 72. Yes, it's scoring well inside of that but it's been the worst model by far outside of that. Very erratic with thousand mile shifts each run.

So you are saying the calculations at http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/ are incorrect?  It has Euro with by far the lowest error at hour 120. 

You might want to send them an e-mail explaining in detail how your own Mean Absolute Error calculations are correct. You have done calculations on your own, right? 

[Isotherm]

3 minutes ago, Z-Cast said:

Verification scores through 120HR tell the story though. It's really not close.

The argument is post the D4-5 period. Models are now congregating toward a track which the GFS has been mostly indicating over the balance of this storm's life (an east coast landfall).

[LandofLincoln]

Wasn't the GFS first to take this route, and then also first to move east yesterday? Not saying that second part will even end up being right, but it seems like the GFS has been ahead of the Euro in trends for this storm.

[Michigander]

4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

LOL. Euro has been terrible past hour 72. Yes, it's scoring well inside of that but it's been the worst model by far outside of that. Very erratic with thousand mile shifts each run.

Are we looking at the same chart? Euro has the best scores at 96 and 120.

[Derecho!]

Just now, Isotherm said:

The argument is post the D4-5 period. Models are now congregating toward a track whicj the GFS has been mostly indicating over the balance of this storm's life (an east coast landfall).

It's people anecdotally handwaving what they think verification is past 120 based on their personal biases. I'd be extraordinarily shocked if verification leaders suddenly flipped post 120. That's not how this works. 

[Lookout]

2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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Yeah the amount of credit the euro gets, including during the winter, is a bit over the top at times. Sure it may do better than other models but the idea it's perfect, without its flaws, or it doesnt shift around a lot too is often greatly exaggerated 

[eyewall]

It has probably been posted but:

https://twitter.com/FredIsBetter/status/905431827858509824

 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The GFS was one of the only models to oppose the Cuba landfall scenario, and has been generally more consistent with the medium term track into the east coast. Yes, the euro has superior verification possibly with short term track, but as far as practical application of model data, I think the GFS has been superior with long term track with Irma.

I agree with this interpretation -- so far the euro gets the short term details best, but has been lagging to the GFS in terms of the big picture outcome.

[LakeEffectKing]

4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The argument is post the D4-5 period. Models are now congregating toward a track which the GFS has been mostly indicating over the balance of this storm's life (an east coast landfall).

For now...until verification ends up in S. Fl... lol!!

[McQuackleton]

I see everyone talking about the possibilities of a FL landfall, a possible Gulf landfall which is almost out of the question now or a Georgia/Carolinas landfall. What is the real possibility this thing curves OTS?

[WildFlower]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It has probably been posted but:

https://twitter.com/FredIsBetter/status/905431827858509824

 

Wow !!  Thanks for posting.   Reality check here in southeast Florida

[LakeEffectKing]

4 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

It's people anecdotally handwaving what they think verification is past 120 based on their personal biases. I'd be extraordinarily shocked if verification leaders suddenly flipped post 120. That's not how this works. 

Bingo!  If at T+120 Euro is crushing the GFS and others...longer leads, there is no way a model's verification ranking flips...it would have to basically acquire Tourette's syndrome.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, AcePuppy said:

I see everyone talking about the possibilities of a FL landfall, a possible Gulf landfall which is almost out of the question now or a Georgia/Carolinas landfall. What is the real possibility this thing curves OTS?

15%, and I guarantee this percentage will verify.

It's still possible if that is what you are looking for.

[friedmators]

11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Not a NW wobble, sorry.

MW shows a track destined to miss PR me thinks.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

[NJwx85]

Based on KJUA loop St. Thomas looks to take a direct hit.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[MN Transplant]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Based on KJUA loop St. Thomas looks to take a direct hit.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes

 

Yeah, we are hours away from a Cat 5 hit on US territory.  Even a more N wobble would still almost certainly still place them in the eyewall.

[jimmosk]

21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So I can't find much on how Barbuda came through the storm. Links to info?

Hurricane Irma: Storm Leaves Major Damage on Some Islands

Also, Barbuda, home to about 1,600 people, was "so badly damaged that there is no communication" from the island, said Keithley Meade, director of a meteorological office in Antigua and Barbuda.

[NJwx85]

I would like to empathize that while most of the guidance shows some weakening over the next day or two, all guidance that keeps Irma away from Cuba shows significant strengthening once in the Southern Bahamas. I wouldn't be lowering awareness if recon finds that Irma has weakened slightly. It should still be a cat 4 on approach to Florida, and that could be conservative. 

[ag3]

18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yeah, at hours T+192, T+216, and T+240....I suspect that if the U of Albany graphic went out to those leads, Euro would continue it's dominance.  The stats don't lie.

Not just hour 192.

It's been erratic with anything past hour 72.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 

When a given run has a divergence between the OP and EPS, the very next OP run moves to what the EPS had in the run 12 hrs earlier. Like we saw how the 0z OP shifted just north of Cuba like the 12Z EPS mean had.