Hoth Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, many of us have PTSD from that. I think this is different in that it probably will be going through extra-tropical transitioning by then. Yeah, even if Joe does get up here, there may not be much left of him. Southwest shear, cold water, slow movement. Maybe you finally get some decent rain for your parched lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, even if Joe does get up here, there may not be much left of him. Southwest shear, cold water, slow movement. Maybe you finally get some decent rain for your parched lawn. Well the euro is a pretty high impact to be honest. 60-70kt LLJ displaced well west of low over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 People are focusing on wrong things. It's not going to make LF. There will be strong damaging winds regionally with big gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I just want a PRE. Everything else is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well the euro is a pretty high impact to be honest. 60-70kt LLJ displaced well west of low over SE MA. Yeah, interesting, hadn't looked closely. That's a pretty stout high as well. Big wave action at the least. Well, beats talking dews. We track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, interesting, hadn't looked closely. That's a pretty stout high as well. Big wave action at the least. Well, beats talking dews. We track. If one is to be realistic, could be a decent nor'easter. Tides also hide too thanks to Ginxy moon fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Surf 'n Turf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If one is to be realistic, could be a decent nor'easter. Tides also hide too thanks to Ginxy moon fetish. Yea I think a good Noreaster is in the cards and yes we high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If one is to be realistic, could be a decent nor'easter. Tides also hide too thanks to Ginxy moon fetish. Hump back whales seen riding waves off coastal RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Euro is pretty meh on winds outside of the Cape, looks like Eduardo. EPS GEFs all are offshore too. Kev will get his 35 mph gust to litter the lawn with wilting leaves, James will get some 50 plus. Best surf will be 36 hrs before ET Jose gets to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Yeah, even if Joe does get up here, there may not be much left of him. Southwest shear, cold water, slow movement. Maybe you finally get some decent rain for your parched lawn. We lost the block/retrograde on most guidance and instead there is interaction with a trough diving in from Quebec. That means increased baroclincity will trump tropical forcing mechanisms as a means to maintaining intensity. So Jose will be going through an extratropical transition as he gets past 40 N per latest guidance. Being that this is six days out it's still of course possible we see increased troughing over the Northeast,leading to earlier interaction and a more northerly track near our latitude. So an exit stage right track isn't written in stone yet either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/908322693937864704 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I have barely been following Jose the past couple of days. Too far away and too many unknowns. Just checked in and took a better look this AM. I did feel my ears perk up just a wee bit. West and stronger. Living through most every cane that has hit New England since the 1960's lessons learned. Any major wind damage occurs on the dirty side, east of the eye. Rain and noreaster conditions on the west side. A strong cane up here can only happen if a trough is pulling the storm rapidly northward. I don't see this happening with Jose. On the other hand he will be moving slowly and *if* we can get him up this far NW then perhaps a nice wet noreaster? I'd take the rain but odds are this would be a far SE New England storm. At least something to now watch over the coming days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Straw man argument here ... but, tropical season ain't over! Two impressively virile waves just outta Africa chugging west into an MDR that is dripping with positives. The larger picture teleconnections offer up much above normal activity/genesis in that region... pretty much right into the first week of October too. Wouldn't shock me at all if we're tracking a couple TC's and/or canes come this time next week.. The models are not really as dependable (imho) in the genesis stages of these things as TPC seems to think. I noticed (just as everyone has) that their probabilities for development are pretty much entirely cow-tied to whatever the model consensus is.. If 4 out of 5 dependable tools go nuts, they color code accordingly... whatever. anyway, I'm not seeing too many inhibitors here, and those waves have cyclonic turn/momentum already. The water temps are still warm enough in the MDR ..other than a smallish pocket of more marginal waters near 26 C between 30 and 40 W.. we'll see.. Plus, the global models have favorable conditions for home growers too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Hey did Wiz draw this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Straw man argument here ... but, tropical season ain't over! Two impressively virile waves just outta Africa chugging west into an MDR that is dripping with positives. The larger picture teleconnections offer up much above normal activity/genesis in that region... pretty much right into the first week of October too. Wouldn't shock me at all if we're tracking a couple TC's and/or canes come this time next week.. The models are not really as dependable (imho) in the genesis stages of these things as TPC seems to think. I noticed (just as everyone has) that their probabilities for development are pretty much entirely cow-tied to whatever the model consensus is.. If 4 out of 5 dependable tools go nuts, they color code accordingly... whatever. anyway, I'm not seeing too many inhibitors here, and those waves have cyclonic turn/momentum already. The water temps are still warm enough in the MDR ..other than a smallish pocket of more marginal waters near 26 C between 30 and 40 W.. we'll see.. Plus, the global models have favorable conditions for home growers too - Wow good post. Just noticed on NHC graphics the 2 areas. 60% and 40% chance of development. How does the ridge look over the Atlantic? Are these west movers or more likely to curve well out east of the islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey did Wiz draw this? that slug graphic is that worst, looks like something out of the MS Paint contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Even lmolineaux is disgusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, many of us have PTSD from that. I think this is different in that it probably will be going through extra-tropical transitioning by then. Man, I still remember that weekend like yesterday. Awful, awful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey did Wiz draw this? Looks like something Kevin would like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Even lmolineaux is disgusted What about edh1981? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Looks like something Kevin would like Looks like a big grub in his lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: What about edh1981? Oh man. That would be like the Super Bowl of MS Paint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: If one is to be realistic, could be a decent nor'easter. Tides also hide too thanks to Ginxy moon fetish. Good post dude - I was considering that this morning, as I'm sure anyone was... That has the look for a hybrid type circulation as it gains latitude above... perhaps the VA Capes or so.. I mean, most salted Mets argue they all have to be to some degree or another (weak pun there...), because of a lot of classical reasons in the physical equations. So be it though... If one is a storm nut, they should be happy with a anything less than 970 like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey did Wiz draw this? pudgy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Ukie looks to be right off the dirty Jers at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, many of us have PTSD from that. I think this is different in that it probably will be going through extra-tropical transitioning by then. I remember I was up in Maine at a lakehouse with family, I was begging to drive home to see the storm. I put a up a huge stink as most teenagers are good at and ruined everyone's weekend. We did not go home, I just sulked the entire time. Then the storm missed and I felt like an ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Bring him on up folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Euro not listening to Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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