40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoth said: Do you have a winter preview out yet? No....I post updates on the blog throughout the fall, but my full outlook will be out in mid Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: this time sensitive image is pretty spectacular ...and rare! full bird nor'easter cyclone SE of NS, transitioning cyclone over the interior SE associated with remnant Irma, and pure tropical cyclone east of the Bahamas... that's like batting for the Cycle! Well and all related obviously. The outflow from Irma is building the ridge to its north, enhancing the jet streak off the Northeast, which is fueling low pressure development near the Maritimes, which is blocking Jose from going anywhere and causing the multi-day loop in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 12 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The rare thread-the-needle situation where most outcomes favored a catastrophe and things had to unfold perfectly to minimize impacts rather than maximize. I'm not sure how anyone can be indignant instead of relieved when the worst-case scenario is not realized. In any case, as early as Thursday night, at the far end of the forecast period, the NHC called for a 120 kt Cat 4 crossing the Keys, and it ultimately did so as a 110 kt Cat 4. That's pretty on the money... if anyone got the idea that a Cat 5 was bound for landfall in mainland FL, they didn't get it from official sources. The problem with this train of thought is that Irma had already reintensified back to cat 5 with 160 mph winds after the ERC, and it only weakened because it interacted with Cuba much more extensively than they had thought, which is something that they did not catch onto until the last moment. They were right for the wrong reason.....even after it came off of Cuba, they were still forecasting it to become a 5 again for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The problem with this train of thought is that Irma had already reintensified back to cat 5 with 160 mph winds after the ERC, and it only weakened because it interacted with Cuba much more extensively than they had thought, which is something that they did not catch onto until the last moment. They were right for the wrong reason.....even after it came off of Cuba, they were still forecasting it to become a 5 again for awhile. Not that I'm saying it is what happened here, but I think the NHC is painfully aware that if they go and drop a storm a category or two that people stop taking it seriously. It felt a little like they were caught in two minds after Cuba. Drop to the true intensity and risk people not heeding warnings, or stubbornly forecast rapid intensification and risk being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The problem with this train of thought is that Irma had already reintensified back to cat 5 with 160 mph winds after the ERC, and it only weakened because it interacted with Cuba much more extensively than they had thought, which is something that they did not catch onto until the last moment. They were right for the wrong reason.....even after it came off of Cuba, they were still forecasting it to become a 5 again for awhile. Thought of our long ago talks, about how the ass end of N moving Gulf systems always get chewed off,after it went over the Keys, and sure enough. It was at that point I knew Tampa etc would not get meteotsunami backside surge.That is what saved this from becoming epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not that I'm saying it is what happened here, but I think the NHC is painfully aware that if they go and drop a storm a category or two that people stop taking it seriously. It felt a little like they were caught in two minds after Cuba. Drop to the true intensity and risk people not heeding warnings, or stubbornly forecast rapid intensification and risk being wrong. Yes, its not easy....you have to balance the conflicting responsibilities of converying meteorological data both in an accurate manner, and a way that will elicit action and save lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, its not easy....you have to balance the conflicting responsibilities of converying meteorological data both in an accurate manner, and a way that will elicit action and save lives. Lines of cars right now from Macon Ga to Orlando headed south, hope they can find gas with no power on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/hurricane-irma-verification-cuba-1-irma.html My take on what took place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Thought of our long ago talks, about how the ass end of N moving Gulf systems always get chewed off,after it went over the Keys, and sure enough. It was at that point I knew Tampa etc would not get meteotsunami backside surge.That is what saved this from becoming epic. Another reason a Miami LF would have been worse....lower latitude, less mid latitude influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I stayed up until 4am watching it go over Barbuda, all one could do was refresh the page of the 1 Bouy and the 1 Station until they got blown out. I'm glad I did, as after seeing what occurred there, it was the least I can do to honor them. Entire Roofs ripped off. Island deemed useless. My god. HOW Lucky Florida is that Irma termed late, because Haddad turned earlier it would have been CAT 5 into Miami's rear-end. Still no word on my close friends house in Little Torch Key. That could be Very very bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/hurricane-irma-verification-cuba-1-irma.html My take on what took place: Great Write-Up and Prediction. I knew that all types of Satellite imagery was terrible compared to its 185mph days before Barbuda and days after, but because the Radar still looked so fantastic after Cuba, I thought "Oh, I guess like Snowstorms, I've learned you can't trust how crappy something looks on all types of imagery. Just go by the radar as it takes a while for the crappiness to trickle down to the actual storm." But that is not the case. I mean, it was starting to look crappy before Cuba, to the point where one in landfall as a CAT 5 there, I Swore it was the WORST looking CAT 5 I'd ever seen. But it look until later for it to finally lose its 190mph+ potential it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 He gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I'm still so impressed by the intensity of convection Jose is throwing up, fish or not. Those some mighty cold cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 With Irma, too much faith was given to the SST's. I hear the phrase "once it hits the bath water" one more time, it will be too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm still so impressed by the intensity of convection Jose is throwing up, fish or not. Those some mighty cold cloud tops. GOES-16 popped a pixel of -94.7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: GOES-16 popped a pixel of -94.7C Incredible. I don't remember any system in the Atlantic, of any strength, consistently put up cloud tops this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Incredible. I don't remember any system in the Atlantic, of any strength, consistently put up cloud tops this cold. Could be strengthening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be strengthening again. Shear's relaxing a touch. Wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Jose future track could be influenced by it's intensity. Seems like the stronger it gets sooner, the more of a threat to eastern North America. Might be unrelated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hazey said: Jose future track could be influenced by it's intensity. Seems like the stronger it gets sooner, the more of a threat to eastern North America. Might be unrelated though. Jose means surf again. Irmas swell from the Caribbean actually made it all the way up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 We swell, see the surfers in the water at Point Judith?, SRI is such a beautiful spot in the fall. If you get a chance during the warm weekend hit it up for some great body surfing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Always got the NAVGEM for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 We got just shy of 8" of rain over the past 4 days, one of the most impressive rain events I've experienced, flooding is relatively light due to the lack of rivers here and how gradually the rain fell. Definitely an indirect effect of Irma in the subtropical atmospheric river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 14 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Well and all related obviously. The outflow from Irma is building the ridge to its north, enhancing the jet streak off the Northeast, which is fueling low pressure development near the Maritimes, which is blocking Jose from going anywhere and causing the multi-day loop in the Atlantic. it's funny actually you mentioned this because I was wondering yesterday if maybe some of that late track (< than 3 day lead ) adjusting west that went on might have had to so with some of that alley-oop ridging that was tossed out by Irma yea - ...That superposition sometimes corrects cold coastals west for storms that are transcontinental ..not so much for the coastal plain detonators, ...no.. But a solid deep layer wave with Colorado cyclone model low rippling east will sometimes correct more NW by that latency effect - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I assume FEMA is not hyping when they say 25% of homes in Fl Keys are destroyed? I guess that's not a surprise given the direct hit they took but seems high since not all Keys got hit as hard. Whatever, sucks either way. Still over 6 million homes w/o power, that's no fun when it's 90F and humid but I imagine that number will be halved in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 18z gfs way west of 12z. Still have to watch this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 gefs also shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Yeah, let's watch the GFS be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah, let's watch the GFS be wrong again. 18z NAVGEM. A weenies dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah, let's watch the GFS be wrong again. Time for the Euro to be wrong Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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