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bluewave

July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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51 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wantagh got 1.22" and looks like FRG .40.

Fwiw the Euro says we do it all over again. 

Those 2-5" ammounts did verify.... just   50 miles south of the island over the ocean. I'll take my 1.22 and run

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3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Wantagh got 1.22" and looks like FRG .40.

Fwiw the Euro says we do it all over again. 

The collection of all the models did a good job with the axis of heaviest rains near or just south of the South Shore. Looks we get a similar type event Monday morning. Maybe that one can inch a little further north than last night? In any event, cooler pattern coming to close out the month.

 

eps_t850a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.14401d3d9c8ca303d861097117f67818.png

eps_t850a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.2c192356e92431dd81e8c5c18061b910.png

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The collection of all the models did a good job with the axis of heaviest rains near or just south of the South Shore. Looks we get a similar type event Monday morning. Maybe that one can inch a little further north than last night? In any event, cooler pattern coming to close out the month.

 

eps_t850a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.14401d3d9c8ca303d861097117f67818.png

eps_t850a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.2c192356e92431dd81e8c5c18061b910.png

 

 

Fits the mold of this summer so far, no prolonged cool or heat -  bias warm with 2-4 day bursts of heat.,  lets see how much we shave off the positives and how cool we can get.  Clouds/storms today - tue.   With that, you can assume next heat spike on/around 8/4.

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Not sure if its my laptop but realtime links are a day behind.  For example the visibile sat loop i just posted is showing 7/22 (not 7/23 today)  maybe a cache issue.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Fits the mold of this summer so far, no prolonged cool or heat -  bias warm with 2-4 day bursts of heat.,  lets see how much we shave off the positives and how cool we can get.  Clouds/storms today - tue.   With that, you can assume next heat spike on/around 8/4.

The most remarkable extended warmth this year was in January,February and April with brief record intervals in May and June. 

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What do you guys think about the general pattern over the next week or two? A few days back, this was forecast to be a pretty decent week. Am now reading on Upton's AFD that it's not looking so good and they are talking about a ULL closing off later in the week.

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

What do you guys think about the general pattern over the next week or two? A few days back, this was forecast to be a pretty decent week. Am now reading on Upton's AFD that it's not looking so good and they are talking about a ULL closing off later in the week.

with an active jet stream and us being on the edge of the warmer/hotter air down in the DC region, an unsettled look is a possibility.    Doubt we see many total washouts this time of year-the ULL in April/May is brutal

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Here's an interesting quote from NWS about later in the week:

 

"another shortwave amplifies into a significant trough into the eastern
states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high amplitude
trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, digging all
the way to northern Florida by Friday"

Any thoughts on the implications?

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Mt.Holly:

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-241000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0004.170723T2200Z-170724T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Newton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold,
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the Pennsylvania counties of Carbon,
  Monroe, Northampton, Lehigh, Berks, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks,
  Delaware and Philadelphia, for the New Jersey counties of
  Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer,
  Monmouth, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem, for New
  Castle County in Delaware, and for Cecil County in Maryland

* From 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will move through
  eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New
  Jersey during the balance of today and into tonight. Rainfall
  amounts up to 2 to 4 inches are possible. The heavy rain will
  fall in a short amount of time and it may result in flash
  flooding.

* Heavy rain falling in a short period of time will result in
  rapidly rising water levels along streams and creeks and in
  areas of poor drainage. Significant roadway flooding may occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that flash flooding is possible. Flash
flooding is very dangerous.

Please monitor the forecast and be prepared to take action if a
Flash Flood Warning is issued for your location.

Do not drive through flood waters. The water may be deeper than
you think it is. A vehicle can easily become trapped in flood
waters endangering its occupants and those who come to their
rescue.

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7/23:

PHL: 89
ACY: 84
New Brunswick: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
EWR: 81
ISP: 81
JFK: 81
LGA: 80
NYC: 79

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6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

anddd things are drying up.  epic fai

I'm not giving up. I got 1.22" last night despite it looking like it was over. There big convection north and south over Pa. Unless we split the uprights again we should be good to go in the morning 

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