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jburns

Plans for the Great American Eclispe, Aug 21, 2017

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Saw this...

"Is it really worth the trip to the path of totality when you can stay home and see the partial eclipse? 

Pulitzer prize winner Annie Dillard, who witnessed both types of eclipses in 1979, compared them as follows:  A partial eclipse is very interesting. It bears almost no relation to a total eclipse. Seeing a partial eclipse bears the same relation to seeing a total eclipse as kissing a man does to marrying him, or as flying in an airplane does to falling out of an airplane."

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On 8/11/2017 at 9:25 PM, EmersonGA said:

I'm taking off at 11 to high tail it back to pick up the fam.   We plan on taking back roads and forest surface roads to the east side of blue ridge.  I'm hoping most people are too unfamiliar with the gravel roads.  My house is in the 99% but I can't help traveling to the full when it's that close. 

Park service closing some roads, use caution!

 

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

12z GFS cloud Fraction for 18z on the 21st (which is about the time of the eclipse):

***take this lightly, but it is looking like there will be folks that get lucky and a lot that will not

 

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It's worth noting that most of cloud cover from that run are from high clouds (such as cirrus) and there's almost nothing in the low level. This run might be acceptable if you're along the coast.

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I am staying in Lumberton NC Sunday night then shooting down 95 to get to Manning SC perhaps.  What are everyone's thoughts on traffic on I95? Should be about an hour and a half or so drive normally.  

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1 hour ago, hazwoper said:

I am staying in Lumberton NC Sunday night then shooting down 95 to get to Manning SC perhaps.  What are everyone's thoughts on traffic on I95? Should be about an hour and a half or so drive normally.  

Total $hit show is my prediction.

 

we booked a cabin on top of a mountain just west of Bryson City months ago. Pray for clear skies.

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1 hour ago, hazwoper said:

I am staying in Lumberton NC Sunday night then shooting down 95 to get to Manning SC perhaps.  What are everyone's thoughts on traffic on I95? Should be about an hour and a half or so drive normally.  

I may be entirely wrong, but to be safe I would probably stay off the interstate if I were you. Detours are your friend.

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23 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Total $hit show is my prediction.

 

we booked a cabin on top of a mountain just west of Bryson City months ago. Pray for clear skies.

GFS is your friend right now. It's looked great for North GA/Upstate SC/western NC for a number of runs now.

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4 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

GFS is your friend right now. It's looked great for North GA/Upstate SC/western NC for a number of runs now.

If it's showing clear/pc, and no rain, lock it in! In regards to your camera phone, can you take a picture of the eclipse covering the camera hole with the eclipse glasses lens??

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If it's showing clear/pc, and no rain, lock it in! In regards to your camera phone, can you take a picture of the eclipse covering the camera hole with the eclipse glasses lens??

 

Yes but I doubt you can zoom in far enough to see much. The sun is really really tiny with the wide angle of most phones.

 

If you can get ahold of binoculars you can always stick the glasses to the end of them (NOT behind them) and take a shot through that.

 

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I am staying in Lumberton NC Sunday night then shooting down 95 to get to Manning SC perhaps.  What are everyone's thoughts on traffic on I95? Should be about an hour and a half or so drive normally.  

Probably not as bad as some of the guesses out west (8x travel time), but I would definitely plan to leave after breakfast and take back roads. 

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

If it's showing clear/pc, and no rain, lock it in! In regards to your camera phone, can you take a picture of the eclipse covering the camera hole with the eclipse glasses lens??

Yes, this is safe. If you have an SLR you need to buy a larger filter to protect the lens though. 

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The trend is your friend we hope. I am going to be anxious about this whole thing until I am in position with the sun shining.

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35 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The trend is your friend we hope. I am going to be anxious about this whole thing until I am in position with the sun shining.

GSP had a nice writeup.  Things are looking great for the upstate of SC and NE GA

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Eclipse is Day 5 and the models have nudged the boundary, clouds and scattered thundershowers just south of totality. In winter models like to go south about day 5 then back north. Please not this time. Thankfully expect less change in summer. Plus models show rising 500 heights. One can trust the 500 level pretty well.

Central SC has a nice balance right now, 00Z Aug 17 runs, models verbatim. Precipitable water should be higher near the coast, lowest upstate. However Upstate has elevation related cloud risk, esp if southeast wind. One might roll the dice mid-state or slightly upstate of Columbia. 

Bodies of water can help subdue Cu. Also the approaching deep partial phases should subdue Cu. Despite our challenging climo. don't look, be optimistic. We have building heights which should mean shallower than average Cu. Then partial phases can go to work from there.

For SC/GA watch hi-res models for clouds and the like. If the choice is between mid-high clouds and early Cu no rain, I would gamble with Cu dissipating slightly. Mid-high clouds are not affected much by the actual eclipse (unless they are decreasing anyway). Cu should decrease as much as 30% in the partial phases. 

Might be my last post this thread, but I will be writing over in Tennessee. We have the same synoptic wish-list. Good luck to all!

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15 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I am staying in Lumberton NC Sunday night then shooting down 95 to get to Manning SC perhaps.  What are everyone's thoughts on traffic on I95? Should be about an hour and a half or so drive normally.  

medium800.jpg

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I am in Asheville NC. My Brother-in-law has a house in Williamston SC in the direct path of totality so the wife and I are going down there on Sunday morning and plan to be in place for the event on Monday. With a special bottle of eclipse bourbon by the way! Oh and lots of snacks.  

"I am thinking "Woodford Reserve double oak" since the shadow track is crossing KY.

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Heading to Brevard on Sunday to stay with some friends.  Taking my whole family.  Brevard gets only a minute of totality, but I really don't want to get out on the roads on Monday morning and get stuck somewhere I don't want to be.

By the way, what's an eclispe?  Is that a condition resulting from staring at the sun for too many hours?  :P

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Anyone on the board in close proximity to 95 care to host me a my wife and and three kids for the event?  LOL

Not excited about traffic.  You can chill at my pad for a Nor Easter 

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I live in Tellico Plains in Monroe Co, SE TN right on the center line. They are expecting 10k people with our normal pop close to 1k. Alot of ppl are starting to doubt that many will show....going to be interesting.

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Tellico Plains is starting to look good with the drier forecasts rolling out. It is in the valley, and the lower PW and moisture forecasts reduce risk of mountain clouds nearby. I would definitely take Tellico Plains over the other side of the Apps and Blue Ridge. People would be smart to show up!

Tennessee may luck out with slight surface ridging and slowly rising 500 mb heights, a gem of a combo. Avoiding any high clouds from modest westerly flow is key. I am less worried about Cu which normally calm down during partial phases. If the forecast holds here, Y'all come on over to Tennessee!

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41 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Tellico Plains is starting to look good with the drier forecasts rolling out. It is in the valley, and the lower PW and moisture forecasts reduce risk of mountain clouds nearby. I would definitely take Tellico Plains over the other side of the Apps and Blue Ridge. People would be smart to show up!

Tennessee may luck out with slight surface ridging and slowly rising 500 mb heights, a gem of a combo. Avoiding any high clouds from modest westerly flow is key. I am less worried about Cu which normally calm down during partial phases. If the forecast holds here, Y'all come on over to Tennessee!

That is quite the drive from Lumberton NC in the am

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RAH, which sounds more realistic than my grid forecast:

Sunday looks mostly dry as ridging aloft to our south begins to
build northward over our area.  Then for Monday, the forecast has
been trending better the past few model runs, regarding cloud
coverage and rain chances, although we`re keeping an eye on the weak
short wave in the westerly flow aloft, which both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest will pass by mostly to our north, but heights over us do
trend down during the day.  For now will hold cloud coverage around
50% with PoPs slightly below climo...20-30% during the afternoon
Monday.
 

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It would be awesome to get clear skies on the Cherohala Skyway. One of the overlooks near 3000' has a view of Knoxville and the whole valley below on a clear day. The centerline passes over the state line there. Love to see pics of the shadow crossing the valley floor from there.

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