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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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52 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm thinking 3-6" is a safe middle ground forecast for BOS right now, but I'd be more worried about being low rather than high. Generally I'd say BOX has the right idea with their map and their watches right now - someone in NEMA into NH is going to get smoked though.

 

Going 3-6" for CT hills, 1-3" Hartford north, slush south of there for my forecast tonight.

Agree and posted the same. That range includes 6". I do think that's on the conservative side given the trends in guidance today, along with my comments earlier that this setup may favor globals > mesos and is less likely to come northwest compared to the Mar 14 setup. Lots will depend on dynamics Saturday which trended more robust on guidance today. I'd like to see that continue at 0z before going higher.

If we don't go wall-to-wall snow/sleet or something like the 18z GFS, defining storm totals with an intermediate rain sloppy mess on Friday afternoon might get tricky.

 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They would float up in a zeppelin and whip out their sling psychrometers 

Actually surprised Tip didn't know that there were radiosondes back then

Report of the Chief of the Weather Bureau for 1939 - NOAA

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/wb_reportofthechief/1939.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjlkJqGw__SAhVIYyYKHfo7Ay0QFggqMAI&usg=AFQjCNHDHXlpYs50UyCw6SVbKEKQJTSUDA&sig2=c8UdFMvUMYRZj-BtMj_AFg

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Im actually surprised by that...the radiosonde part

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think they are

Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so.

I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so.

I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. 

I only see what someone posts-usually Will.  It's all we got-the snow chart and sometimes the total qpf.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so.

I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. 

A good mechanic looks over and under the hood.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another person who doesn't know where Tolland is located 

Trying to capture the hills and valley yet included Somers as the valley 

Tolland is due NW of 84 and S Tolland is on 84 

All joking aside, the dynamics in this thing are the elephant in the room...and in a good way. I would say anyone forecasting minimal impact should have Bruce Willis caution flags in the back of their mind...even for your area. It's hard to actually forecast gung ho, but I would be quite uncomfortable.

 

Seeing that bowling ball going right under us is asking for positive bust....but we'll see.

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