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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I was kidding dawg... subsidence IS sinking air.. one in the same 

Yes, but I was trying to differentiate that from a dry slot, which I believe always occurs east of the 700mb low and is the result of air flowing in from a dry air mass, not subsidence. 

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RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. 

We better hope it's wrong then.  But this is not the eastern correction one would have hoped for to kick off this model suite.

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RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. 


RGEM is still outside its deadly range but it's becoming worrisome for the coast and nyc between the nam and rgem. Nam has not budged.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


RGEM is still outside its deadly range but it's becoming worrisome for the coast and nyc between the nam and rgem. Nam has not budged.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

If there is mixing along with the NAM's 15-20 inches will take it. But there wasnt mixing except at immediate coast. RGEM is pretty much on its own, moreover, iy also, gives 15-20 inches. So....Im afraid I am missing the point? If vast majority of QPF is snow and some locations mix but make up for it in QPF so be it.. Each solution has its respective liabilities and assets.

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Just now, mimillman said:

Discouraging to the see the RGEM this far west, encouraging to see the NAM is not as bad. Both of those models tend to be too amped, so I would err on a further eastern solution from what they depict. That is, unless the GFS and ECMWF show something similar tonight.

RGEM gives us around 15 inches

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The NAM is all snow for nyc so not sure what you're talking about.

 

What I mean is that even though the NAM is all snow, it's really close for comfort. I still believe the area will remain frozen, however, as the RGEM continues to amp up more as does the NAM, it must be watched if this amps enough for the storm to go over W LI or NYC. At that point, you get the point.

 

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