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dryslot

Coop Crushing Snow 02/15/17

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z NAMs do verbatim into the NW portion of the State.

It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two.

.29 in my hood  vs 1.45 Scooterliscious

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two.

My bad.  I meant to say NE. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do agree with pope Benedict that the H5 trend has been pretty real today on guidance.

 

I too though want to see it go a little more before going wild with predictions. NAM was obviously the most extreme. But it won't take much more on a solution like the Euro or GEM to equal the 18z NAM.

Oh it is for sure, but give me some confidence with other models is what I mean. I I certainly could see, the inverted trough deal swing down and give us at least a refresher.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh it is for sure, but give me some confidence with other models is what I mean. I I certainly could see, the inverted trough deal swing down and give us at least a refresher.

Euro ensembles actually looked a little better to me than the OP which was surprising. So maybe the trend has a little legs. But I agree, I def won't believe anything major until we have a lot less spread in guidance.

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Most of the models have had me just missing out on the best snows by a few miles to the north and east.  18 Z 4 K has me just missing them to the south and west too.  So that is something I guess.

I'll try this technique:

Meh.

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Just now, MarkO said:

The NAM looks really warm to me at the surface, no? 

Def a paste job on that run...though maybe turning more powdery in the latter stages.

 

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1 minute ago, MarkO said:

The NAM looks really warm to me at the surface, no? 

Why would it be cold at the surface with southerly winds?  Until this storm passes E of us and wind back from the N and E its warm at the surface.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles actually looked a little better to me than the OP which was surprising. So maybe the trend has a little legs. But I agree, I def won't believe anything major until we have a lot less spread in guidance.

inside 36 hours and we have no clue as to what will happen, interesting

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why would it be cold at the surface with southerly winds?  Until this storm passes E of us and wind back from the N and E its warm at the surface.

I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE.

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1 minute ago, MarkO said:

I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE.

Once the ULL drops in the atmosphere cools quickly on the NAM, initial rain to paste to powder

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5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE.

It's a 2 part storm.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

interesting run, fun to analyze , just missing a potshot drive by by Forky

:lol:  That's all I'm doing.  Started it all with my 5h comparison GIF.

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3 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

RGEM looks like a whiff south of Newburyport 

It came south from the 12z run though...and it does get lighter snows into the rest of E MA later on as there's a pretty clear IVT going right into the MA coast around 42 hours. I'd still favor the best to be to the north of MA, but the trend has definitely been southwest today.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I've got the latitude and altitude...but I don't have the longitude

C-1" here

I'm not buying it yet either, but I wouldn't shut the door yet on this one either. Nam brings about 0.6" QPF here with a ridiculous cut off - meaning I am expecting nothing at this point. Still it shows the potential is there. Our distances are not that far. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It came south from the 12z run though...and it does get lighter snows into the rest of E MA later on as there's a pretty clear IVT going right into the MA coast around 42 hours. I'd still favor the best to be to the north of MA, but the trend has definitely been southwest today.

12z got 1-2" into CT.. so this came even farther SW?

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57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would be funny if I get the trend I want and instead I end up with less snow while E MA racks it up with a coastal. 

Yes Brian,  This is what is going to happen.  SE NH Mass and SW Maine will jack but we will get our dependable 6-8".  Take it and run.  That's the trend this winter.  Why change anything now!

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