• Member Statistics

    16,059
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Cat Lady
    Newest Member
    Cat Lady
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WeatherFeen2000

Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

I remember late January 2011 when NYC transitioned from rain to sleet to snow (even had a severe sleet thunderstorm in there), and from about 9 pm to 5 am, so eight hours or so, we had 16 inches of snow (I think the final total was 19", as it was combined with snow that fell earlier in the day, if I recall correctly).  Maybe we can get lucky with this storm as well.

That night was one of the best snow events I've seen here by far. My total was about 16" IIRC but 13 of it fell in 4 hours with the upper air low. It was literally just a wall of white. This coming event might give that one a good run if the RGEM is right. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, Bronx 14 inches, Brooklyn 14, Staten Island 11...some spots in southern Queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly Port Jefferson, Long Island and or northeastern NJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, some spots in southern queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly port jefferson and or northeastern NJ


For once I think you may not be that far off.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, Bronx 14 inches, Brooklyn 14, Staten Island 11...some spots in southern Queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly Port Jefferson, Long Island and or northeastern NJ

Please stop with wishcasting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hopefully it stays to your South

RN_000-048_0000.gif

Yep, that's my biggest fear. I know we'll be starting as rain down here. The question is how long will it take to change over. If that much rain eats into my accums, I doubt much sticks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just don't think anyone will know in detail how the storm plays out until it's over. There will likely be 3 inch per hour bands next to 1 inch per hour bands all within 30 miles. It's such a dynamic system...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Back to my earlier point, I would think the low not closing off would enhance the swath of snow, as oppose to keeping it so well confined 

The low closing off enhances moisture transport west. You want the upper air lows to start closing off. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That night was one of the best snow events I've seen here by far. My total was about 16" IIRC but 13 of it fell in 4 hours with the upper air low. It was literally just a wall of white. This coming event might give that one a good run if the RGEM is right. 

I remember driving on 287 in Edison with my then 16 year old son and it was simply a wall of sleet and then we heard the thunder multiple times - THUNDERSLEET!!  While the road was getting a bit icy, we just kept driving for an extra 15-20 min, just to be out in it (wasn't much traffic).  It changed to snow as we got home and ripped for hours - got about 12" in 7 hours and 18" overall (5" from part one earlier in the day).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below is a list of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls following days with high temperatures of 50° or above. As of 11 am, NYC has a high temperature of 55°. LGA and JFK have highs of 59° and 58° respectively.

NYC02082017.jpg

Must've been quite the post-Christmas shock in 1933 - from springlike to major snowstorm to well below zero.   March 1970 was the white Easter, 11" of mid-20s powder thru the middle of the day in NNJ.  My future wife (we were dating at the time) said the sunrise service at Wanaque Reservoir was brutally cold, cloudy with a raw east wind a couple hours before the flakes arrived.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Back to my earlier point, I would junk the low not closing off would enhance the swath of snow, as oppose to keeping it so well confined 

The low will not close off. This is bc of the lack of a greenland block. There is a transient block, hence the storm is progressive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UKIE goes from 991 to 973 in 12 hours 

BOMB .

Close to 30 MM NYC out to LI , 

 

This may drop a foot in  just 6 hours along the coast. 

 

  P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000 (1).gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is this a potential NYC School closer? By 5AM there should be a few inches on the ground with the worst conditions imminent.

Given the timing and intensity of the snow, it is probably more likely than not that NYC's schools will be closed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The UKIE goes from 991 to 973 in 12 hours 

BOMB .

Close to 30 MM NYC out to LI , 

 

This may drop a foot in  just 6 hours along the coast. 

 

  P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000 (1).gif

It's not official until the Regional German model says so. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's not official until the Regional German model says so. 

 

LOL , well here you go .

 

 

 

 

gERMAN SNOW.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Given the timing and intensity of the snow, it is probably more likely than not that NYC's schools will be closed.

This is the best possible timing for a closure...snow starts at 2-3am, gets heavy by 5am (when the decision is usually made), and continues through the morning commute, making roads impassable for commute and paralyzing trains.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole area should have a foot or more on the UKMET. NYC and LI are over 30mm (about 1.25" liquid), north and west are 25-30mm. North of I-84 is 20-25mm. From 7am-1pm an inch of liquid falls from NYC east. Should be whiteout conditions in that period areawide. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

This is the best possible timing for a closure...snow starts at 2-3am, gets heavy by 5am (when the decision is usually made), and continues through the morning commute, making roads impassable for commute and paralyzing trains.

My school I know has a number of teachers who are from upstate, out of state, LI, further away areas of NYC...if they do hold school I can safely say teacher attendance would be low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.