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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty confident, Scott....I like next season given ENSO considerations, and potentially the year after with solar minimum fast encroaching.

It does seem like the EPAC warm pool was more due to atmospheric conditions which may have causes a Nino fake out for the time being. 

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CFSv2 bias corrected has a weak Nina now...lol. The head fake from 2 months ago is gone. Anything from -.5 to +.5 is probably a decent bet...but obviously just a guess and still early in the game. 

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On June 1, 2017 at 9:02 AM, CoastalWx said:

CFSv2 bias corrected has a weak Nina now...lol. The head fake from 2 months ago is gone. Anything from -.5 to +.5 is probably a decent bet...but obviously just a guess and still early in the game. 

You're going neutral now?

You were in the mod nino camp during the spring...

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're going neutral now?

You were in the mod nino camp during the spring...

No I woukdnt put out a guess this early. I was just saying that it might be a decent range to start out with. I still think it's going to be Nino though, but who knows.

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3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn't a weak Nino about best case scenario around here?

Usually, yes. Weak and west based normally is our sweet spot.

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There's a bit of cooler subsurface water lurking about 200m deep...so there's a slight chance we could tip toward neg-neutral or even weak Nina if we get easterly anomalies going....but that could easily be wiped out if we stay pretty neutral or even get a WWB.

 

But yeah, we want to root for a weak Nino in southern New England...they have been pretty reliable for huge winters.

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On 6/6/2017 at 11:06 AM, ORH_wxman said:

There's a bit of cooler subsurface water lurking about 200m deep...so there's a slight chance we could tip toward neg-neutral or even weak Nina if we get easterly anomalies going....but that could easily be wiped out if we stay pretty neutral or even get a WWB.

 

But yeah, we want to root for a weak Nino in southern New England...they have been pretty reliable for huge winters.

 

DB4mw07WAAIM-Kf.jpg

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just up front and from 100,000 feet:  Little too bicep in self-promotional marketing tactics ... without first introductions to individuals and their backgrounds.  Sounds like spun up propaganda that way, and as discussed further below ... quite possibly to lube the reader up in order to then get them to buy into a true target concept. Usually in that design, the delivery inevitably comes surreptitiously, as an embedded argument - gee I wonder where they put it!    

Before even getting there, I'd like to know 'who' these people are?  I clicked their 'About' link and it doesn't get into anything regarding personnel, much less their individual back-grounds that is a necessary preface when engaging in such matters.  They offer no confidences in the generation of their products, other than many well placed words, and (admittedly) well structured prose.  Their credentials need formal vetting/exposure to any would-be clients, or said clients open themselves up to charlatan tactics.  That's just 101. 

Through a more cynical lens:  It also comes off as agenda coveting when they make this statement: " Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatueres and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years)...."

Mmmm...riiight. I bet it does!   So, of course by that point in the discussion, just in case the reader was wondering ... Anthropogenic green-house gassing and subsequent heavily vetted (scientific .. formally and well exposed accredited professionals and scholars) fixing of the system can all be blithely dismissed...?  check

Hundreds of scientists from all walks of informed research coming to the same independent, non-affiliated conclusions...?  check

Good luck with that... This bold statement of theirs, which was lifted directly and not altered in any way, comes off as the golden target concept ... is classic for how the a-moral, unethical base statistic (that typically attempts to strategically elide certain valid information in order to propagandize their agenda (in this case, to dismiss/remove human activities from the already foregone scientific/mathematically proven correlation to global warming) ). This is the present day strategy in how the anti-GW machine carries about in their modus operandi. 

Whether this source's intent is centered in all that, or not, that bold above is sneaky and not a good look.  It wouldn't lend to confidence in their product at all.

 

 

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Having said that ...

...the sun is entering a solar minimum. This minimum can be researched at NASA's various and refereed sources both on-line and in formal publications/media in general. It is set to nadir in 2019 thru (I think 2022) before bouncing back over the course of years. 

From everything I have read that is refereed and papered by scholars and openly founded leaders of research, the climate does have a fairly robust positive correlation coefficients with the longer term curve of the solar cycle.  The minimum tends to correlate more with -AO (for examply);  any other correlating sources notwithstanding, -AO's tends to mean more effective delivery of cold to middle latitudes ... which it then becomes academic that cold at 45 N lends to storminess, too.  The positive phase the opposite. 

The reality of Global Warming is that barring a comet impact, the acceleration of warming is not a smooth curve. It takes place on a "serrated" trajectory (as it's said..), where you go up 2 and down 1 (so to speak..) at also somewhat less regular periodicity wrt to those ups and downs to boot.  It is entirely possible if not likely that the present migration through solar minimum may correlate; it's a particularly dim negative as it is taking place along the temporal expectation of all three cycle simultaneously going through a nadir in their respective curves (which is based upon historical inference). 

In short ... 300 year = negative, 22 year = negative; and 11 year = negative, all centered roughly on 2020.  So said robust climate correlation would seem a safe bet.  GW will offset that to some degree - pun intended!

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They seem to have some good calls going by there verification schematics of past predictions, but who knows....

We also have, finally, a neggy QBO this season...man, I pray for a weak el  nino.

I dunno - who says their verifications are what they are - them?   There's that, but .. cause-and-effect causality in C02 mathematics of heat trapping combined with observed empirical data re GW ...all that reality would make anyone very leery of these claims that nest that sort of statement/excerpt.

Not that anyone asked ...but what I think the on-going discussion needs in society is sort of perspective?   It seems to me there is a sudden kind of knee-jerk back draft that comes from two primary sources:  

One comes from a consumer base/sectors of society that are sort receiving the information as  "Global" and "Warming," and that really is a very bad P.R. campaign tactic that's built right into the name of the phenomenon.  It doesn't serve at all to explain - or incite a need to have it explained, just what exactly is meant or is happening in GW.  In fact, it instead tends the imagination (first) to some sort of scary dystopian apocalypse.  And, no one can believe that ...  They can't believe it because it is "too much" to believe.  That's human nature.  People tend to tune things out that seem to extraordinary. 

The other comes from those with the wherewithal ... but a twisted ethicsl/morality about it.  They can't stand the notion of their special interest's failing to succeed if they have to heed any kind of proactive mode of operation that limits their contribution to the problem.  (Tough schit though).

Both those have a huge thick wall of lead the separates the reality of what's going one, from any sort of acceptance and appropriate response.

What it should really be called is ...I dunno, "Don't dump 3 billion years worth of fossil fuel creation back into the environment as exhaust in just 500 years and expect not to seriously f-up the planet..."   Something concisely obvious like that -

Kidding aside ... we are really talking 10ths or even hundredths of a degree per year or multi-year periods, which is fast geologically but doesn't mean the atmosphere is about to detonate either.   It's a serious issue, yes... rising as fast as it is...  And it's not just 'warming' in the atmosphere that is the problem.  It's taking place at a faster rate than the back-ground processes can adapt.  THAT is the issue.  

That consequence is too broadly defined to begin labeling them all here.  But it boils down to a break-down of enough critically interdependent systems ... the whole collapses.  Does that collapse happen in a series of ecological disasters? or all at once...?  The Syrian migration was in part triggered by a severe drought that most scientist believe can be linked to GW... and with huge population fluxes into regions, including Crimea, that contributed to the Russian's invasion there ... THAT right there, shows how this transitively effects the modes and modalities of man, and could inexorably lead to a future of warfare during an era of particularly scary means for macro-death. 

I just i don't know i see humanity continuing to fight stubbornly against acceptance in the matter until it is too late and then there is a cocktail of all the above leading to a tragic population correction that exceeds biblical definition.  We just play the when game...

sorry for the wild spin off/digression

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On 6/11/2017 at 11:14 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Having said that ...

...the sun is entering a solar minimum. This minimum can be researched at NASA's various and refereed sources both on-line and in formal publications/media in general. It is set to nadir in 2019 thru (I think 2022) before bouncing back over the course of years. 

From everything I have read that is refereed and papered by scholars and openly founded leaders of research, the climate does have a fairly robust positive correlation coefficients with the longer term curve of the solar cycle.  The minimum tends to correlate more with -AO (for examply);  any other correlating sources notwithstanding, -AO's tends to mean more effective delivery of cold to middle latitudes ... which it then becomes academic that cold at 45 N lends to storminess, too.  The positive phase the opposite. 

The reality of Global Warming is that barring a comet impact, the acceleration of warming is not a smooth curve. It takes place on a "serrated" trajectory (as it's said..), where you go up 2 and down 1 (so to speak..) at also somewhat less regular periodicity wrt to those ups and downs to boot.  It is entirely possible if not likely that the present migration through solar minimum may correlate; it's a particularly dim negative as it is taking place along the temporal expectation of all three cycle simultaneously going through a nadir in their respective curves (which is based upon historical inference). 

In short ... 300 year = negative, 22 year = negative; and 11 year = negative, all centered roughly on 2020.  So said robust climate correlation would seem a safe bet.  GW will offset that to some degree - pun intended!

This is exactly what worries me with regards to AGW.  We can be lulled to sleep by the solar minimum only to ride the other side of the saw-tooth towards a perhaps sudden and very troublesome global heat wave.  What happens then?

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On 6/14/2017 at 3:19 PM, CoolMike said:

This is exactly what worries me with regards to AGW.  We can be lulled to sleep by the solar minimum only to ride the other side of the saw-tooth towards a perhaps sudden and very troublesome global heat wave.  What happens then?

We'll be fine.

 

gisp-last-10000-new.png

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June JAMESTEC looking mighty fine I have to say, not to mention precip was above normal for he northeast too. I know only summer officially starts in a few days, but I envision a huge winter incoming boys 

IMG_1927.GIF

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Curious about any links to information pertaining to the Syrian migrant exodus being due to an AGW influenced drought, as opposed to a vicious civil war between various religious factions and a barbaric caliphate no country was prepared to deal with. 

Not saying it isn't possible, just asking for a friend. 

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Curious about any links to information pertaining to the Syrian migrant exodus being due to an AGW influenced drought, as opposed to a vicious civil war between various religious factions and a barbaric caliphate no country was prepared to deal with. 

Not saying it isn't possible, just asking for a friend. 

Given what's going on there, I'd put money on civil war. I don't think I need peer review literature to say that.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm pretty sure 9/11 was an inside job out of I-95 frustration over missing Mar 01.

I'm just glad I convinced Ray not to martyr himself after 09/10. 

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At least the JAMESTEC shows some below normal temps outside of a 100 square mile area on the globe. Europe is pretty cold too...looks like it is trying to show a pretty big -NAO/-AO winter.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the JAMESTEC shows some below normal temps outside of a 100 square mile area on the globe. Europe is pretty cold too...looks like it is trying to show a pretty big -NAO/-AO winter.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, I think everyone is pretty much in the same boat on that one. I'll believe the -NAO stuff when it is actually occurring, otherwise, means nothing to me

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25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I think everyone is pretty much in the same boat on that one. I'll believe the -NAO stuff when it is actually occurring, otherwise, means nothing to me

We've had an extremely difficult time sustaining any big NAO blocking in the cold season ever since the big N Atlantic cold pool developed in 2013. We ended the winter that year (Feb/Mar 2013) with huge -NAO blocking and we really haven't seen it since outside of some brief episodes (one of them just prior to mid-atlantic blizzard in Jan 2016).

 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the JAMESTEC shows some below normal temps outside of a 100 square mile area on the globe. Europe is pretty cold too...looks like it is trying to show a pretty big -NAO/-AO winter.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

I think the low solar/-QBO combination should fare well for us on the East Coast, as for the pacific we've had a positive PDO for nearly four years now and hopefully it'll stay, and an at least pos neutral ENSO would be favorable for us as well. Overall I'm more optimistic about the upcoming winter given the conditions.

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