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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. 

I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine.

What would you think would be ceiling snow amounts on this in jack zone?

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. 

Of course they always tend to spit the bit because they are crap to begin with.

I'll be curious to see what the Bufkit soundings look like for that near coast area where it could be a blue bomb.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine.

And seeing the GFS look like this is a positive.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Got to +6C in the warm nose on the 06z run.

Quite a different look this run. -5C around 1500ft toward the tail end.

Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z TUE 24 JAN 17
Station: 43.65,-70.32
Latitude:   43.65
Longitude: -70.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    50                                                                 
SFC  999    55  -1.9  -2.7  94  0.8  -2.2  21  25 271.3 271.9 271.0 279.8  3.13
  2  950   456  -5.1  -5.2  99  0.1  -5.1  27  40 272.0 272.5 270.8 279.5  2.73
  3  900   881  -2.7  -2.8  99  0.1  -2.8  55  45 278.7 279.3 275.7 288.3  3.44
  4  850  1338  -0.3  -0.4  99  0.2  -0.3  79  40 285.9 286.6 280.6 298.3  4.36
  5  800  1823  -0.2  -0.4  99  0.2  -0.3  94  35 290.9 291.7 283.1 304.3  4.64
  6  750  2339  -1.5  -1.6  99  0.1  -1.6 107  33 294.9 295.7 284.7 308.2  4.52
  7  700  2888  -3.1  -3.2  99  0.1  -3.1 119  33 299.1 299.8 286.0 312.0  4.31
  8  650  3477  -2.5  -3.0  96  0.5  -2.7 147  39 306.1 307.0 288.9 320.6  4.71
  9  600  4110  -5.1  -5.9  94  0.8  -5.5 158  44 310.2 310.9 289.7 323.0  4.09
 10  550  4789  -9.0  -9.7  95  0.7  -9.3 160  46 313.4 314.0 290.0 324.1  3.34
 11  500  5521 -13.4 -14.0  96  0.5 -13.6 160  48 316.7 317.2 290.3 325.2  2.60
 12  450  6315 -18.7 -19.3  95  0.6 -18.9 161  47 319.7 320.1 290.5 325.9  1.84
 13  400  7182 -25.1 -25.8  94  0.7 -25.2 164  44 322.4 322.6 290.7 326.4  1.17
 14  350  8138 -32.2 -32.4  98  0.2 -32.3 167  53 325.3 325.4 291.1 327.9  0.72
 15  300  9208 -40.1 -40.5  96  0.4 -40.1 172  68 328.9 328.9 291.8 330.3  0.37
 16  250 10421 -51.6 -51.6 100  0.0 -51.6 174  78 329.4 329.4 291.7 329.9  0.13
 17  200 11847 -54.8 -60.1  52  5.3 -54.9 173  63 346.0 346.0 295.8 346.2  0.06
 18  150 13704 -51.4 -80.7   2 29.3 -52.0 199  34 381.5 381.5 302.5 381.5  0.00
 19  100 16279 -59.7 -83.1   3 23.4 -60.0 204  19 412.4 412.4 306.8 412.4  0.00
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

 

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Could we be talking like April '97 type consistency?

Possible...but my gut is that if this ends up snowy, it's not gonna be a complete paste job. Maybe for some areas near the transition it could be, but that high sort of screams for take the under on the boundary layer temps...and also maybe more of a sleet zone versus pasty snow and rain.

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So toss all this and forecast "man" snow blue bomb?

Quote

Although warming will continue aloft and limit the amount of
snowfall Monday night, enough cold air will remain in the lower
levels to allow for the whole gambit of mixed precipitation. Sleet
and freezing rain will be possible over the interior with mainly
rain falling along the coast. This mixed precipitation will
retreat to the far north on Tuesday with rain falling in most
other areas.

There will be strong gusty winds Monday into Tuesday, especially
along and near the coastline. Expect areas of heavy rain as well
which may lead to rises on area rivers, potentially producing ice
jam issues.

 

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