mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: I think it's safe to say the nws will give NYC metro a Wwa with latest runs. GfS is all alone. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My point and click here is forecasting only a 30% chance of snow with no accumulations. NWS humping that GFS hard. While I do disagree with upton they really got burned BAD with the Jan 15 storm discounting the gfs and humping the euro. I think NYC is in play now and they will adjust by morning for a last minute CYA. Ill be reporting obs and measurements from Columbia all day Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Surprised crankywxguy on twitter isn't buying the west trend. He is usually on point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: NYC should get a winter storm warning in my opinion. Disagree. Those model outputs translate to 3-5" at 10:1 ratios and the GFS is still not on board, so I'd bet on just advisories for now for NYC. Always time to upgrade them to warnings if the snow truly hits. I'd also guess that we see Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Eastern Passaic and Rockland/Westchester and the coastal CT counties added to the advisory list; could definitely see Nassau and maybe Monmouth (and eastern CT) upgraded to warnings. I bet they wait for the Euro, though, just to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, seanick said: Surprised crankywxguy on twitter isn't buying the west trend. He is usually on point Yep. A bit worrying that he isn't as optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: I believe you are under estimating the sharpness the cut off will be to the west due to very low dew points. Humidity 86% out here.. Currently 12/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: While I do disagree with upton they really got burned BAD with the Jan 15 storm discounting the gfs and humping the euro. I think NYC is in play now and they will adjust by morning for a last minute CYA. Ill be reporting obs and measurements from Columbia all day Tomorrow The Euro was on its own for several runs with that storm and was backing down at this point. This time the other guidance is trending west, verified obs are backing a deeper system and the GFS has busted before with these types of systems. Anything can happen though and the banding setup and western cutoff is always tough to pin down. I'm liking the chances for at least approaching warning criteria in Nassau and a decent advisory event in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Mass suicides are about to go down in the SE forum. Sounds like the GFS is busting bad down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 And the NW tick continues on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Euro looks like 0.3-0.4 across the city. Cape blizzard. I think 2-4 is a good call for the city right now given GFS hesitation. 3-5 Nassau county, 5-10 Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro was on its own for several runs with that storm and was backing down at this point. This time the other guidance is trending west, verified obs are backing a deeper system and the GFS has busted before with these types of systems. Anything can happen though and the banding setup and western cutoff is always tough to pin down. I'm liking the chances for at least approaching warning criteria in Nassau and a decent advisory event in NYC. Well said. This does not look like the time to ride the GFS against every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 EURO game on. 0.35 for nyc, more east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Mass suicides are about to go down in the SE forum. Sounds like the GFS is busting bad down there. no surprise there,thank the warm atlantic and gulf for that lol..but their bust might be our positive. this whole system is coming right at us,full stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I think by 4 advisories are up. No denying the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Think all of Suffolk should be under WSW now. Nassau is borderline but would stick with WWA. Euro looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 When did Suffolk county get a WSW lol? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 938 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SATURDAY... CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-071045- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/ NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 938 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 713 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-071100- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 713 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: When did Suffolk county get a WSW lol? 930pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: 930pm I don't remember seeing anything there at 9:30pm. They must've forgotten to change the time after expanding from eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don't remember seeing anything there at 9:30pm. They must've forgotten to change the time after expanding from eastern CT. 3 hours ago, snywx said: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ081&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ081&local_place1=2 Miles SSW Pine Valley NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=40.9045&lon=-72.6796#.WHBa8LGZNAY There isn't enough confidence to move the WSW westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I don't remember seeing anything there at 9:30pm. They must've forgotten to change the time after expanding from eastern CT. It's been there since 9:30 pm on the map and in the text products - I posted about it elsewhere hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, snywx said: This is what happens when you multitask thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/07 00z Guidance Summary NYC SREF: 0.45 NAM (regular): 0.40- 0.45 GFS: 0.10 - 0.15 RGEM: 0.40 - 0.45 UKMET: 0.40 GGEM: 0.35 - 0.40 ECM:: 0.35 - 0.40 Since I'm not sure if SACRUS is awake, I'll take the liberty of adding in the Euro - let's hope the consensus verifies - huge improvement on the coating I was expecting 2 days ago. The NWS almost has to upgrade all those I-95 corridor counties from Trenton to NYC and CT to Advisories. And maybe warnings for Nassau/Monmouth. Unless they're seeing something most of us aren't. This has turned into, by far, the best few days of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 NYC: 3-5" Brooklyn: 4-6" JFK: 4-6" LGA: 4-6" ISP: 7-11" EWR: 2-3" Twin Forks 10"+ you guys can add to what I missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Radar down south is looking healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 What time is this gonna start central monmouth county? Thanks for all the great intelligence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: NYC: 3-5" - 4-8 I like 6 for manhattan Brooklyn: 4-6" (7) JFK: 4-6" (7) LGA: 4-6" (7) ISP: 7-11" (9) EWR: 2-3" (4) Twin Forks 10"+ (14) Bronx (7) Jackpot- Bristol, RI: 21 inches you guys can add to what I missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Not for nothimg, Upton is really lost here. Put up a WWA for an obvious 1-2" deal, and refuse to for an obvious 3-5" deal. Even if they hug the GFS, NYC should be under a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: What time is this gonna start central monmouth county? Thanks for all the great intelligence Probably around 7am night everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 How's the HRRR looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 NYC 3-6 (As always, KNYC comes in lower than the airports) EWR 2-4 ISP 6-9 Lower HV 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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