40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats interior Maine and the Whites on the Miller B At least ski resorts will stay afloat, no pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I know this is a no-no but the day 10 EURO is one of the oddest things you'll see in January. Canada is quite warm with +3C to +5C H85s near James Bay...while the core of the cold of -6C over the mid-Atlantic. Weird looking for sure. With that High in Canada though it looks like that's probably some crazy inversion of warmth aloft. It's actually just a perturbed version of the previous cycle for that time range - very similar actually to the previous 12z run from yesterday. The take away is that the flow is in flux - yee haw.. 10 C words for changing... If/when the models are going to put out charts that seem like a scenario that can't really happen ... it is during these change intervals when that is most likely to happen. Once in a blue moon the exotic transpires, sure - but knowledgeable experienced weather betters never nickel that sort of thing. What I think is interesting is that the NAO is progged to ... "tank" is too strong of a word, but, definitely passing into/through a negative mode phase state in the GEFs. I looked at the individual members and only 1 ... 1 of them looked like the 00z operational Euro, with the extreme west based NAO not only west, but S with a ridge node near Ontario like that. Most do have the negative NAO appeal, as is also calculated at both CDC and CPC... The EPS does so, too. As we know, the NAO is notoriously hard to predict ... But during phase change? I'd go ahead a call that "can't" predict... Tongue-in-cheek aside, I think a -NAO is something we are going to have to deal with during (particularly) the last 10 days of the month (whether it last that whole time or not...); and the exact circulation construct that results cannot really be ascertained at this range with much skill. ...That said, I'd hedge bets on the 'west-based' side... There's just too much support from all species of models to assess the probability otherwise. Now...since west-based NAO has a profounder correlation/modulating influence on the circulation over eastern N/A (particularly from the midriff Mid Atlantic and North...), I find all these ideas that are being bandied about that essentially 86 "all" of January ...to be pretty meaningless. Fact of the matter is ...a west based NAO ... of sufficient standard deviation, is an unknown when mapped against the vestigial -PNAP/SE-S height preponderant positive anomaly. One says suppress the flow, the other tries to lift the core of the westerlies N - so which diametrically opposing signal wins? I think the PNA rising is a clue - maybe. The S may lose ... how much ...not sure. If the PNA succeeds in getting to +1 SD from a beginning of -2 ...that's obviously a total of 3 SD modal change with a mass field that truly encompasses a HUGE amount of hemispheric space in three dimensions.. It seems that together with a -NAO... S heights would either have to fall, or... they just get pressed S and the flow gets super-anomalously fast ... It would be like fast for a different reason. Typically a +PNA would tend the heights to relax in the S - I just ...I think there's something else going on though that rolls eyes to mentioned so I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: As early as late next week The strat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: The strat? Winter wx potential in SNE. Modeling slowly going that way. And certainly by late next weekend or thst week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 But even if the strat warm starts happening..the sensible weather affects are delayed a few weeks beyond that time frame...no?? And that lately seems a lot like voo-doo too.. I mean we here this all the time, and nothing much comes of it it seems. Give me -epo, -ao and and some blocking, and let's roll the dice. if the polar vortex splits down the line, on our side of the pole..we'll then I guess that's a bonus for us..but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter wx potential in SNE. Modeling slowly going that way. And certainly by late next weekend or thst week As week of 1/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 GFS and CMC slowly getting on the Euro bus for the Whites and Interior Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But even if the strat warm starts happening..the sensible weather affects are delayed a few weeks beyond that time frame...no?? And that lately seems a lot like voo-doo too.. I mean we here this all the time, and nothing much comes of it it seems. Give me -epo, -ao and and some blocking, and let's roll the dice. if the polar vortex splits down the line, on our side of the pole..we'll then I guess that's a bonus for us..but I'm not holding my breath. Yes ... I wrote about the correlation with SSW either in this thread or one of the adjacent one .. Not sure what 'seems like voo-doo' though - the correlation is clad. The question is ... is there an SSW? I'm not sure I see evidence of one. There are warming mass plumes being modeled at the various sigma levels of the stratosphere; I sense there is some leaping to the conclusion of an SSW about ready to take place without much evidence that is the case. I've tried to explain over and over, ...but apparently am being ignored: warming in the stratosphere does not correlated to -AO outside of noise. Propagating (down-welling) warm anomalies associate with sudden onset significant warm anomaly masses, do. If this warming people are seeing starts to behave in that fashion, than sure... otherwise, it's a lot of shimmering dialogue signifying nothing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 8:08 AM, Ginx snewx said: Just throwing this out there to see what eventually transpires but our favorite week of the year looks once again to be prime territory for a phase change event. We watch and wait. In the mean time we torch, sucks but it is what it is and with any luck its forgotten Still think a phase change event looms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS and CMC slowly getting on the Euro bus for the Whites and Interior Maine Yup interesting development. I'd say even back this way too. Good orographics. Looks like even 6" for the High Peaks of the Adirondacks region. Has 3" at MVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Wow at a certain model. 5-10" VT/NH/ME day 5. 2-3" northern Mass. Even 5" at BTV, lol. I'll definitely have to eat crow hard to that met in Dover, NH if that's close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 We wouldn't toss this for day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Paste job. I didn't think it would get that far south but can't be totally shocked of it happens. That high was kind of being stubborn from Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Yup. Here we go. Coming a lot sooner than folks think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Paste job. I didn't think it would get that far south but can't be totally shocked of it happens. That high was kind of being stubborn from Quebec. Inverted trough on crack after that too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wow at a certain model. 5-10" VT/NH/ME day 5. 2-3" northern Mass. Even 5" at BTV, lol. I'll definitely have to eat crow hard to that met in Dover, NH if that's close to correct. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Inverted trough on crack after that too, lol. What a weenie run for SW ME/E NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: What a weenie run for SW ME/E NH Yeah definitely...though hard to take those long range inverted things seriously. It wanders around for like two days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Pls come to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yes ... I wrote about the correlation with SSW either in this thread or one of the adjacent one .. Not sure what 'seems like voo-doo' though - the correlation is clad. The question is ... is there an SSW? I'm not sure I see evidence of one. There are warming mass plumes being modeled at the various sigma levels of the stratosphere; I sense there is some leaping to the conclusion of an SSW about ready to take place without much evidence that is the case. I've tried to explain over and over, ...but apparently am being ignored: warming in the stratosphere does not correlated to -AO outside of noise. Propagating (down-welling) warm anomalies associate with sudden onset significant warm anomaly masses, do. If this warming people are seeing starts to behave in that fashion, than sure... otherwise, it's a lot of shimmering dialogue signifying nothing - I guess what I meant was, you hear that the stratosphere is warming..it's disrupting the PV, there could be a split...etc etc.. and then the warming goes away, and it's back to the status quo of the stratosphere being ice cold again...and nothing happened in the sensible weather. And your statement about warming alone is very informative..and I think that's what I meant when I said "it warms and then nothing happens"...yet many folks seem to get so excited about it just warming, and I don't necessarily mean the folks here either. Thanks John for clarifying the differences on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Patience. Snow in the whites-sure. SNE nope. We have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Spring cutoff season on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Op Gone Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 That cut off in the Midwest doesn't do us any good however...not that it's the right solution 10 days from now..but just saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That cut off in the Midwest doesn't do us any good however...not that it's the right solution 10 days from now..but just saying.. That's too soon anyways. It's why we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Got it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 It may not be too soon as Will explained..The blockiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I still like the period around the 19th. Had my eye on it for a few days now. I see models are putting Maine in the game. Wouldn't take a whole lot to see NH in as well. It's the only possibility I see at least in the near term. Personally I'd like to see a later bloomer. Get some marginal airmass wrapped in on the backside. Definitely some model funkiness going on between 18-21. Timeframe to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It may not be too soon as Will explained..The blockiness Not too soon for non 50s but too soon for new pattern. That said-eps on SV is late today so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not too soon for non 50s but too soon for new pattern. That said-eps on SV is late today so we'll see. Euro destroyed your beloved MOS today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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