Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Friday was never 3-6 for anybody... definitely not in the last few days Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 There were some positives...PNA ridge was a bit better this run and the lakes s/w is digging more. Southern stream is still pretty crappy...so the sensible wx difference wasn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - pretty ugly forecast. Onto severe weather season. Lol whats severe weather season? You moving to OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Disagree Well, unless anyone verifies within that range, you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, unless anyone verifies within that range, you're wrong. That statement is inconsistent with probabilistic forecasting, Kevin's favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, unless anyone verifies within that range, you're wrong. Actually, he's arguing an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Saying something looked good a couple days ago can't be disproven by verification. I would argue that the Friday event def looked better yesterday, though I would say 3-6" is an exaggeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually, he's arguing an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Saying something looked good a couple days ago can't be disproven by verification. I would argue that the Friday event def looked better yesterday, though I would say 3-6" is an exaggeration. Thank you. If 00z doesn't show some bigger movements west.. Jbenedict won't need to start the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This has a nicer look to it. Seems like there might be some room to move up the coast a bit more. Hopefully keeps ticking that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Melt Kevin, melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Maybe worth a trip out to the Cape, where it still snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Melt Kevin, melt! http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: http:// Updated pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol whats severe weather season? You moving to OK? Hey, WeHa probably averages one severe warning a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hey, WeHa probably averages one severe warning a summer. So, like 0.25 verified warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: So, like 0.25 verified warnings? Maybe less, ask Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually, he's arguing an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Saying something looked good a couple days ago can't be disproven by verification. I would argue that the Friday event def looked better yesterday, though I would say 3-6" is an exaggeration. I don't think 3-6 was was a high probability anywhere with this threat. So it's wrong. Betting against it has been validated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 3-6 was was a high probability anywhere with this threat. So it's wrong. Betting against it has been validated. Right, assuming it actually doesn't snow 3-6 on Friday....but saying it looked good a couple days ago isn't invalid or valid based on what happens on Friday. That's based on what models looked like a couple days ago and has a level of subjectivity to it. Two different arguments...and yes, it's really pointless to argue much about it. It's classic Kevin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I think the trends have been good today for Sunday. It is only Tuesday so we have 2 more days realistically to see the trending continue. Lets get todays crapfest outta the picture and see what things look like tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Having Friday look valid for 3-6 is like saying Sunday is a KU. Both are bull****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Having Friday look valid for 3-6 is like saying Sunday is a KU. Both are bull****. Best it looked was prob like 2-4 in SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Having Friday look valid for 3-6 is like saying Sunday is a KU. Both are bull****.Not if you cherry pick individual ensemble members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right, assuming it actually doesn't snow 3-6 on Friday....but saying it looked good a couple days ago isn't invalid or valid based on what happens on Friday. That's based on what models looked like a couple days ago and has a level of subjectivity to it. Two different arguments...and yes, it's really pointless to argue much about it. It's classic Kevin though. The point is.. Sunday always was the long shot. Fri looked good yesterday which was 4 days out. Sunday looks bad and it's 5 days out. Whether Fri was 1-3 or 3-6 .. it always had the better chance since we knew both weren't happening. So instead it appears we lose both unless you are James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The point is.. Sunday always was the long shot. Fri looked good yesterday which was 4 days out. Sunday looks bad and it's 5 days out. Whether Fri was 1-3 or 3-6 .. it always had the better chance since we knew both weren't happening. So instead it appears we lose both unless you are James I can't wait to bump this when wsw region wide are issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Best it looked was prob like 2-4 in SE areas. I'm just saying any amount looks good when emotions are involved. He was hoping for Friday because it validated his fears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I can't wait to bump this when wsw region wide are issued. In all seriousness.. why are you so excited and sure we're all gonna get hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I can't wait to bump this when wsw region wide are issued. Seriously. It isn't going to take much to get at least SE areas in the game for something significant. Granted... he needs more work than areas to the east... but I guess we'll see. Friday is looking like crap so no reason to not root for Sunday at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM would give East of Hyannis 2-4" of snow same with the GFS, while the GFS would give Cape Cod 5-10" of snow on Saturday/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The point is.. Sunday always was the long shot. Fri looked good yesterday which was 4 days out. Sunday looks bad and it's 5 days out. Whether Fri was 1-3 or 3-6 .. it always had the better chance since we knew both weren't happening. So instead it appears we lose both unless you are James Friday looked okay yesterday, I wouldn't say it looked "good"...but that is a subjective term. Friday never actually had more than about 2-4" for SNE...and it was mostly eastern regions. Yeah it had started trending better, but that trend abruptly halted. Now Sunday is trending better, but it still has work to do. Sunday is actually hitting eastern areas on some guidance harder than Friday ever was. There's some runs with 4-6" SE of BOS-PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Is it totally incorrect to say the GFS is typically more progressive when it comes to coastal solutions? I would think a 70/30 blend of the ECMWF and GFS is appropriate currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I would go with 50/20/30 with the EURO/GFS/CMC and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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