• Member Statistics

    16,116
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Irish
    Newest Member
    Irish
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

I have a growing concern for temps in our area, so that looks good.  I can't shake that idea of the Euro being way off with it's h5 ideas.  Only thing I can say is that the UKMet led the way with the stronger cold northern stream press to get us to this point, so maybe it is on to something

It's been a while since 99% of the model runs showed no temp problems for our area (just need a storm).  I know the NW trend lurks.  But if we get them all to go to crap at this point 4 days out, man that's going to be a punch in the gut. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Someone once told me there is a tendency between the French/Euro model when they agree.  I cannot remember what it is, but someone in the SNE forum recently brought it up

Whoever that person is, I hate them, lol.  Thanks for your tidbits

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Whoever that person is, I hate them, lol.  Thanks for your tidbits

Darn French...and NE folks.  EPS looks better.  Let's see what tonight brings.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, packbacker said:

Darn French...and NE folks.  EPS looks better.  Let's see what tonight brings.  

Haven't bothered to look yet, but just going strictly by the h5 setup and stream interaction, here are the 2 camps

Euro/French/CMC vs. GFS/UKMet/JMA/NAM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Darn French...and NE folks.  EPS looks better.  Let's see what tonight brings.  

I forget what storm it was but we were riding the french model a couple of years ago.  Not sure how it's been doing lately.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS looks much like the OP as far as the axis of heaviest snows.  The mean went up to just over 2 inches in the axis that got the heaviest snows on the op.  This comes after very little on the 0z EPS run.  Looks like much better agreement with the Euro.  Hopefully we can get a clearer picture by this time tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ajr said:

12z EPS still all over the place but mean is pointing to NE NC/SE VA

eps_snow_m_se_23.png

Climo would heavily support this map, and it does resemble the operational quite a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

Yeah that's a good point.  I was thinking about that earlier.  I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out.  My first and foremost concern is always, always temps.  They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

Above normal gulf waters?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah that's a good point.  I was thinking about that earlier.  I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out.  My first and foremost concern is always, always temps.  They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey.

We're always on the same page there CR.  Verbatim, the Euro Ens Mean looks fine.  It's has a nice track off the Carolina coast for both of our areas...but it was warmer than it's last run, just like the Op.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

I don't worry about that until I know the cold air and a system will be there.  Seems to be the last 24 hours and radar watching is when that talk starts.  It's the least of our worries at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

I actually asked that earlier sir but didnt get any response. GFS had that big blob traversing FL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

I don't worry about that until I know the cold air and a system will be there.  Seems to be the last 24 hours and radar watching is when that talk starts.  It's the least of our worries at this point.

Very true 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, griteater said:

I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC

Good point. I didn't think about that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

Good point Delta......this screws the upstate of SC almost every winter storm above a nuisance level coming out of the gulf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see this going to a really non event in the N. Foothills. I said all along if anybody does any good in NC it will be from RDU east. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. Until 12z tomorrow, then we'll see if any changes are needed. Good luck down South and East!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.