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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Hard to imagine the two major globals still being in such a disagreement at this point.  I'd usually side with the EURO but Ukie and GFS have been pretty darn consistent with more qpf.  

 

The problem is that it's not just the EURO showing this. It has two short range models on it's side: NAM/RGEM. Even the CMC sort of agrees. That's what worries me the most.

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7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

GA blanked on this run. GSP to CLT to RDU are 2-4...one little 4+ blip just south of Rock Hill in SC. 

RDU looks like 7-8" to me?

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27 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb.  End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing.  I think this particular area has a huge bust potential.

 

That's exactly what I was questioning earlier

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8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

about 1/3rd of the GFS QPF in this run. 

Just looked at the UKMet.  It's really weird with the models this morning.  It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter.  Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO

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4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

The problem is that it's not just the EURO showing this. It has two short range models on it's side: NAM/RGEM. Even the CMC sort of agrees. That's what worries me the most.

The 2 models that yesterday where aligning more with the GFS which the Euro did as well

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Just now, griteater said:

Just looked at the UKMet.  It's really weird with the models this morning.  It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter.  Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO

Very interested to see what blend the WPC uses for the afternoon forecast.  That will speak volumes.  I agree, Ukmet and GFS have been very consistent with the overall set up.  Euro, CMC, et all not so much. 

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Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well.  Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM.



We must be looking at a different NAM because the 3km has 6-9" IMBY in the definitely NC mountains.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well.  Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM.

I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days.  GFS has been off by itself.

Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed.

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1 minute ago, jc697 said:

I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days.  GFS has been off by itself.

Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed.

 

Last night, the 00Z Euro, CMC, and GFS were as closely aligned moving closer to the event. So many assumed it would start to balance.  To see this today really just throws everybody for a loop.

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3 minutes ago, jc697 said:

I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days.  GFS has been off by itself.

Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed.

Ukmet lines up with the gfs, it's not on its own.

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12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

I would take that KGSO total in a heartbeat but think it will be half of that 

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I think the EPS will tell us something, several members last night had little to no snow but many had more. I am hoping that it sticks to a majority of members with at least an inch or two- if not that that is cause for concern. This system is *very* sensitive to small changes in the track of the vort max, I do think we also need to remember how most of the GEFS members were basically identical to the Op. Again, no cliff diving for me yet, but a bit closer to the edge.

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16 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just looked at the UKMet.  It's really weird with the models this morning.  It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter.  Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO

Good call.....I think in the end, most systems do end up a blend of the various models.  Each models bias have to be factored in as well as any obvious errors in how they are handling the data.  However it is somewhat surprising that at this late hour the GFS and Euro are so far apart.

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16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

Thanks QC.  Is this from the euro?

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I think i'll take the middle road between the Euro and GFS and go with 1-2" here

I just started thinking that idea as well....will put Carrollton at 2-3 and that might be pushing it

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My current call for the Atlanta Metro is 1-4" But at this point, who knows?

1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said:

I just started thinking that idea as well....will put Carrollton at 2-3 and that might be pushing it

 

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24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

 
 

GFS is cake and many would take what it gives. Wish this area had a site. I can only assume based on GSP, CLT, HKY and AVL. 

You can access data here. Click on Cobb Data once you choose a site

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

 

To edit, KFQD does well on the 12GFS

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 1.55.14 PM.png

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25 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

Would you mind including KORF for future model total posts?

Between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern forums, we're a bit homeless and overlooked.  Thanks!

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