Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillerA said: From alan They would still get a foot, though, if the snow map is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, GlaringSun said: So when will the NW trend start? About 36-48 hours ago. Real talk though: Depending on (A) How far south the cold air pushes prior, (B) how deep and cold the air actually is and (C) the time between a fully cold thermal profile being in place verses the arrival of moisture...would this not affect the qpf as it translates to real frozen precip touching the ground? Saturation isn't an instant thing with cold (dry) air. How much are these "snow maps" accounting for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Gfs continues to be rock solid! Wave the flag folks. You feel that there is any indication to go above a general 2 - 4" across parts of SW NC (localized, TN line and also closer to the escarpment)? I wonder if moisture can bank up against the escarpment enough to warrant an increase to 3 - 5" on our map. Good to see you and Met1985. It's been a while since i visited the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Bevo said: About 36-48 hours ago. Real talk though: Depending on (A) How far south the cold air pushes prior, (B) how deep and cold the air actually is and (C) the time between a fully cold thermal profile being in place verses the arrival of moisture...would this not affect the qpf as it translates to real frozen precip touching the ground? Saturation isn't an instant thing with cold (dry) air. How much are these "snow maps" accounting for that? Model precip outputs already account for dry air/precip not reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGirl205 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At hour 54, and it would still be snowing over a good portion of NC. SE Virginia, and into SC: Out of curiosity, what is causing the dry strip from Louisiana to west Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The warm nose in western upstate of sc and central northeast ga shouldn't be that warm on gameday. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, chapelhillwx said: Pivotal Weather actually has a pretty helpful Kuchera ratio map that shows what snow ratios are at a given point in time. This figures in to the Kuchera snow accum maps. Of course, you have to assume the temps, etc on the model are accurate, but it's still helpful to get an idea. I'm assuming that's why their maps show more accumulation than the Tidbits. It's very reasonable that the last half of the storm will have higher ratios even as precip rates decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: I'm assuming that's why their maps show more accumulation than the Tidbits. It's very reasonable that the last half of the storm will have higher ratios even as precip rates decrease. Yep. They have total accumulated 10:1 snow and snow depth on the ground, as well, so it's nice to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp). Pivotalweather has a product that shows the ratios going into the Kuchera method. Here's a GIF from 36 to 60 (which covers all of the storm for NC): Some pretty nice ratios (12:1 and 14:1) towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Kuchera Ratios for the Triad stay between 12:1 to 15:1 for the duration. The Bufkit extraction should be fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Boknows34 said: I think the slight NW trend will continue...Just my opinion, but then again, I'm just a weenie You can get more precip in AL/GA without a NW trend of the system itself. Faster development which throws more precip back and other factors could drive more snow into far NRN GA and NERN AL without a major track shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If right, Brrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: You feel that there is any indication to go above a general 2 - 4" across parts of SW NC (localized, TN line and also closer to the escarpment)? I wonder if moisture can bank up against the escarpment enough to warrant an increase to 3 - 5" on our map. Good to see you and Met1985. It's been a while since i visited the forum. Probably in higher elevations like highlands and cashiers. I could see those areas in the 6-8, especially highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherGirl205 said: Out of curiosity, what is causing the dry strip from Louisiana to west Alabama? The upper level wave is positive tilt until it reaches the Mississippi River...so from the perspective of LA and MS, it's a late blooming system...suspect you will see some light precip in there but it ramps up as you head east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claycochaser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherGirl205 said: Out of curiosity, what is causing the dry strip from Louisiana to west Alabama? Because the snow to the North and South of that "strip" is being caused by 2 different mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So up until last night only the Euro seemed to have trouble with the BL temps/cold air being in place and it finally embraced it last night at 00Z and now the other models seem to want to run warmer this morning ugh.....the cold air supply is deep and very very cold so I am going to to not worry yet, the models will figure it out but what fun would it be without a few scary runs.....so don't fear the cold will win out and the warm nose issues will be confined to the immediate coastal areas.....I hope..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 You feel that there is any indication to go above a general 2 - 4" across parts of SW NC (localized, TN line and also closer to the escarpment)? I wonder if moisture can bank up against the escarpment enough to warrant an increase to 3 - 5" on our map. Good to see you and Met1985. It's been a while since i visited the forum. What's up Local! I think 4"-8" is certainly possible in place like Cashiers, Highlands, and Lake Toxaway. Orographic lift is difficult to model and the trough orientation will really affect how much lift is produced. I think this could trend into a nice 3"-6" event for most all of WNC when it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GGEM is also dry in AL/NRN GA as is the RGEM. More or less expected that since they're usually similar at 36-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 LMAO the CMC went south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGirl205 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: The upper level wave is positive tilt until it reaches the Mississippi River...so from the perspective of LA and MS, it's a late blooming system...suspect you will see some light precip in there but it ramps up as you head east Thank y'all! I'm a little south of Birmingham so I'm pulling hard for my kiddos to see some. 1 minute ago, claycochaser said: Because the snow to the North and South of that "strip" is being caused by 2 different mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 CMC was a pretty anemic looking run overall save parts of E and NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Probably in higher elevations like highlands and cashiers. I could see those areas in the 6-8, especially highlands. Yea, was thinking the same thing. We might up to 3 - 5" in our current 2 - 4" for that area and if it goes to 6 - 8" then o well, thats splitting hairs in my opinion. "You call for snow and it rains or is sunny, gather the pitch forks. You call for rain or sunshine and it snows, they love you" Faucet drip weather following the snow is gonna be brutal. Stay warm bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: LMAO the CMC went south... I'd be more worried if I was you if the CMC had gone north to be honest because I'd put more belief in the RGEM at this point if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What's up with that warm nose on the Game/Sc border? I'm not sure I'm buying that. That just doesn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: What's up Local! I think 4"-8" is certainly possible in place like Cashiers, Highlands, and Lake Toxaway. Orographic lift is difficult to model and the trough orientation will really affect how much lift is produced. I think this could trend into a nice 3"-6" event for most all of WNC when it's all said and done. All true. We just try to avoid whiplash for our small set of readers/followers and will likely wait till the mid afternoon hours to make any changes. By the way, love your detailed post on FB; simple, concise and not hyperbolic. Look forward to seeing those pics tomorrow and Saturday, stay safe chasing the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'd be more worried if I was you if the CMC had gone north to be honest because I'd put more belief in the RGEM at this point if that happened. CMC follows the lead of other models. Its verification scores speak to that. No idea why everyone is getting excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ugghhh, our forecast really took a bad turn today. Rain Friday night and into Saturday morning low 33. Changing to sleet/snow Saturday afternoon as temp drops. They are still saying 3-5 inches of sleet/snow but if we get an all night rain, it will have a very hard time sticking. Hopefully by tomorrow it will turn back to what it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 All true. We just try to avoid whiplash for our small set of readers/followers and will likely wait till the mid afternoon hours to make any changes. By the way, love your detailed post on FB; simple, concise and not hyperbolic. Look forward to seeing those pics tomorrow and Saturday, stay safe chasing the snow! Class act here folks. Preston is a great guy. Thanks man I agree on the whiplash.. would rather be 2-3" low on totals than 2"-3" high haha. I think this one will be a fun event to study. Check out his page on Facebook Localyokelweather He is always posting great stuff/accurate forecast and is a must follow if you live anywhere close to WNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'd be more worried if I was you if the CMC had gone north to be honest because I'd put more belief in the RGEM at this point if that happened. agreed!! Selfishly, I'm glad the south shift...I know it really won't happen that way, but its colder here for sure....GFS is not very far off from being super nice...need a little temp help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ICON finally backed off on their precip amounts. Looks like the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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