broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, broken024 said: Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow? I'd say all options are still on the table! From cold and dry to warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, broken024 said: Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow? Something I am wondering about as well, especially here in the Piedmont sleet capital. Almost always Miller Bs transfer the coastal low way too far north so we either dry slot here or stay all ice or transfer to rain. This upcoming setup is a little out of the ordinary as far as the high pressure strength, so if we can get a transfer say, SE of Charleston I would think we may see a lot more snow. Of course, if it is that south it may be a pure Miller A which would be great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: Something I am wondering about as well, especially here in the Piedmont sleet capital. Almost always Miller Bs transfer the coastal low way too far north so we either dry slot here or stay all ice or transfer to rain. This upcoming setup is a little out of the ordinary as far as the high pressure strength, so if we can get a transfer say, SE of Charleston I would think we may see a lot more snow. Of course, if it is that south it may be a pure Miller A which would be great as well. Like Jan 2011...that was painful. Op Euro has something similar to below past few runs, with low up in Oh then transferring and destroying MA to NE. I don't see a miller a, need a true west base NAO...IMO. Weak slider I guess is on the table, anything that amps will be a mb or hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Today's 12z euro, low up in Oh and weak low off the coast. This would be our worst nightmare. Unless we got lucky on the initial overrunning and dryslotted before it rained on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Today's 12z euro, low up in Oh and weak low off the coast. This would be our worst nightmare. Unless we got lucky on the initial overrunning and dryslotted before it rained on us. That's the Pack I like to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'd take that January 11 event all day. I'm sure the Raleigh folks would disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: Today's 12z euro, low up in Oh and weak low off the coast. This would be our worst nightmare. Unless we got lucky on the initial overrunning and dryslotted before it rained on us. Nice find pack! If anyone can find a good example of how we can get screwed, you da man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, broken024 said: Any chance this first storm goes from Miller b to a and has more snow? To get a Miller A with more snow, the 500mb waves hitting the west coast would have to dig farther south. This would lead to a farther south track of the surface low. Today's CMC is the closest of today's runs at achieving a Miller A. From a modeling standpoint, what I like to see for a Miller A in the, say, 3-7 day timeframe is a storm that is missing us just to our south with plenty of cold air in place. What we currently have for next week is more of Miller B look. The ensemble height trends over E Canada and the Northeast, and the amount of wave digging out west are the key things to watch whether we're talking about next week or early Jan. The upper levels drive the bus for both storm track and cold air extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, broken024 said: I'd take that January 11 event all day. I'm sure the Raleigh folks would disagree The early part of the Jan '11 storm was a Miller A with big snow in N GA into the upstate. So it had a good snow footprint. The problem with it for central/northern NC was that the southern wave weakened quite a bit as it ejected out of the Deep South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's the Pack I like to see! I think what you see here is a situation where cad areas stay ice until the end. The low off the coast, while rather weak, is just enough to minimize the low going up to the west. I think there wil also be a precip min just east of the mountains. I think the euro has been showing this as well. Not saying this will happen, just interpreting the model. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Starting to enter nams timeframe for the 28th plus storm. Some differences at h5 but overall pattern wise is pretty similar to 18z goofy. Moisture showing up over Texas . 0z nam first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That 540mb line oh so slightly further south at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Moisture looks good! About same as 18z early on! 1044 mb high in MN , moving in tandem with the wave! Another good run incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Where is Grit or Wow for the pbp? Lets see what the data shows tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Moisture looks good! About same as 18z early on! 1044 mb high in MN , moving in tandem with the wave! Another good run incoming... H5 looks quite a bit different out west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: H5 looks quite a bit different out west though In a good way or bad way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC is going to be a healthy winter storm it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: H5 looks quite a bit different out west though I think end results the same, you can see the isobars kinking down the apps early on, CAD will be there, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Plenty of precip on the CMC with strong damming well into GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Flow is so dang zonal. This looks like a classic overrunning event like the one we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS digging the wave hard into the SW this run. Prob be a healthy Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Flow is so dang zonal. This looks like a classic overrunning event like the one we just had. What site are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS isn't on the cold side, but setup with strong high to the north says it should be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Really digging the vort out west this run. Likely will cause it to cut -- More Miller B-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 HP is a tick weaker and a tick faster this run...hopefully that doesn't become a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looks much warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Looks much warmer this run. Yeah it's back to the big wave, warmer solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Yeah it's back to the big wave, warmer solution Yep it is. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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