mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Nah, the cold got there...it was just the warm nose crap weasel was too stinking strong. That's the thing imagine these temps with another strong warm nose. Boo. But yes, strong cad would help imo. One other positive that would be nice if it showed up, is its sloooow. That thing on gfs is crawling. Last storm flew by.... It got hung up behind the mtns here! It started raining at 43 degrees and took about 10 hours for us to get to 32! Ten miles up the road, they got 4-5" of snow, I got 10 hours of rain and ip, followed by a 1/4" of snow! It was horrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: With the early January storm moisture got here early (south of I-85) and temperatures struggled to drop. The cold air never made it in time. Moisture got here before the cold air and that was a major issue. Radar showed snow for 8 hours but it didn't changeover to snow until the last light band of moisture moved through and we got wrap around snow flurries. One difference between this threat and the January storm is this threat has more of a cad event with the cold coming from the north east. The January event relied on the cold making it over the mountains which always takes longer than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: With the early January storm moisture got here early (south of I-85) and temperatures struggled to drop. The cold air never made it in time. Moisture got here before the cold air and that was a major issue. Radar showed snow for 8 hours but it didn't changeover to snow until the last light band of moisture moved through and we got wrap around snow flurries. Moisture getting here early was definitely bad for the last storm and it almost always happens, if we have CAD in place, it's a benefit, earlier the better, especially with most highs on the move! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neckbeard93 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: There's definitely not as much coverage on the South end as the last storm!! ATL was looking good at this timeframe with the Jan storm! That's a very scary feeling with the inevitable NW trend! I will expect sleet and rain, so I can only be disappointed by rain! Snow is off the table! I'm hoping that doesn't happen although I have the sneaking suspicion that it will. However, although TWC at this stage still has this event remaining mostly liquid (like they did with the last one), there has been a CLEAR downward trend in temps on those days over the past 2-3 days, with forecast highs falling from the mid 50s into the mid-upper 40s. I know it's not just the surface temps that count but I think we're headed in the right direction in terms of receiving some form of wintry precipitation in a significant quantity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Be a shame if there is a weak wave day 5 with building HP and it be all rain..... Baja Ridge v/s stout PV in SE Canada. Impressive temp gradient...maybe some light icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Neckbeard93 said: I'm hoping that doesn't happen although I have the sneaking suspicion that it will. However, although TWC at this stage still has this event remaining mostly liquid (like they did with the last one), there has been a CLEAR downward trend in temps on those days over the past 2-3 days, with forecast highs falling from the mid 50s into the mid-upper 40s. I know it's not just the surface temps that count but I think we're headed in the right direction in terms of receiving some form of wintry precipitation in a significant quantity. Aren't TWC forecasts that far out just direct regurgitation from models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: Aren't TWC forecasts that far out just direct regurgitation from models? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neckbeard93 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: Aren't TWC forecasts out that far just direct regurgitation from models? I think they pull it directly from GFS if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neckbeard93 said: I think they pull it directly from GFS if I'm not mistaken. Which sometimes can be no better than pulling it directly from somewhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Be a shame if there is a weak wave day 5 with building HP and it be all rain..... Baja Ridge v/s stout PV in SE Canada. Impressive temp gradient...maybe some light icing. Look at that warm nose in northeast GA and into the upstate. Lol if that isn't a familiar look idk what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Look at that warm nose in northeast GA and into the upstate. Lol if that isn't a familiar look idk what is. + 1! A recurring nightmare! Also, wtf do we have to do to get a high pressure stronger than 1030's mb!!?? Everyone is 1033-1037 it seems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Which sometimes can be no better than pulling it directly from somewhere else Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Cause we can't have enough models to talk about, the JMA sees both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Poor Brick! Monster snows on the horizon, and back to work tomorrow!! No model watching for you!! He said on the other thread, he's not posting much over here anymore, he's found a new home! He's moved because of two posters, one is too negative and one uses too much sarcasm!? I have no idea who he's talking about??;( , but his knowledge will be missed! I love that snow probability map, I'm at 40% Yea but he is not that bad but there have been alot of good posters with great knowledge that have left to. Even some we don't like that have been right. Not like it used to be. Oh well back to waiting on the 8th. Off to the Carribean for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I'm more interested in the storm at day 7 than day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 45 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: I'm more interested in the storm at day 7 than day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Makes me sick to be this close to snow and see absolutely nothing! I never understood why as a kid. I just thought the snow gods hated me! Which they do! Blast those Mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Makes me sick to be this close to snow and see absolutely nothing! I never understood why as a kid. I just thought the snow gods hated me! Which they do! Blast those Mountains! Just remember the once a year we get a raging sleet storm and the Mtns are in the 50s and we are in the 20s! Forget about the 25 other snow events they get a year, while we are in the 50s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Makes me sick to be this close to snow and see absolutely nothing! I never understood why as a kid. I just thought the snow gods hated me! Which they do! Blast those Mountains! Those mountains help protect you from tornadoes because of CAD. Also they help give you ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Those mountains help protect you from tornadoes because of CAD. Also they help give you ice storms. They didn't protect me from a tornado back in November! We got mauled! And I hate to say it but we are due for a major ice storm. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: They didn't protect me from a tornado back in November! We got mauled! And I hate to say it but we are due for a major ice storm. It's been a while. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 0z GFS out to 90hrs, everyone get your shot glasses ready! We'll need em in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z GFS out to 90hrs, everyone get your shot glasses ready! We'll need em in a little while. Except down here - unless we're talking rum and 'cola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Hopefully a party favor and not a shot glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 0z looks further south with the cold than 18z. Midweek 60s are going further south, not much, but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoshM said: Midweek 60s are going further south Oh no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: 0z looks further south with the cold than 18z. Midweek 60s are going further south, not much, but noticeable. I think the double barrel H look, with one popping in Wisconsin, is new and good!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 First storm is farther north at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Nice wedging at 150hrs, moisture not here tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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