Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[TalcottWx]

I kept track of the models overnight.

Not much has changed in terms of modeling. It still looks like the same areas we've talked about for days. 

Pull down the blinds if you are coastal or south of the pike and move onto the next storm. 

Hope NNE enjoys this blockbuster. Maine friends should do well. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

BOX calling for possibility of 6:1 ratios here.    

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX calling for possibility of 6:1 ratios here.    

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

That is hardly snow at all.  Who needs shoveling--just walk down the driveway and fart, and it'll all turn to water.

 

Regular clearing and 6-hour measurements will be crucial as this will compact quickly.

[moneypitmike]

This shows the hell of the CRV pretty well.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I kept track of the models overnight.

Not much has changed in terms of modeling. It still looks like the same areas we've talked about for days. 

Pull down the blinds if you are coastal or south of the pike and move onto the next storm. 

Hope NNE enjoys this blockbuster. Maine friends should do well. 

Gonna be some surprises with this one. Not nearly cut and dry like you think

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

That is hardly snow at all.  Who needs shoveling--just walk down the driveway and fart, and it'll all turn to water.

 

Regular clearing and 6-hour measurements will be crucial as this will compact quickly.

I think you will get crushed and have more like 8-9 to 1 ratios but down the road Greenfield might be 3-5 inches of slop....I forecast 10 plus for you...man snow

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This shows the hell of the CRV pretty well.

 

if only this was exploding off the delmarva it be S+ to Middletown and hpn like feb 2001

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I think you will get crushed and have more like 8-9 to 1 ratios but down the road Greenfield might be 3-5 inches of slop....I forecast 10 plus for you...man snow

As sad as it is for me to say it, if it is that heavy, I might actually go out toward the end of the day and shovel before the evening portion.  I guess I'm not as young as I used to be.

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

As sad as it is for me to say it, if it is that heavy, I might actually go out toward the end of the day and shovel before the evening portion.  I guess I'm not as young as I used to be.

what do you have left for glacier base?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

if only this was exploding off the delmarva it be S+ to Middletown and hpn like feb 2001

I LOVED that one--I was living in Westfield at the time.  Probably one of their biggest storms ever.

[Damage In Tolland]

That is one sick band of snow the RGEM develops over E NY and pivots east. It shows as rain..but that would be snow with elevation. That's my hope here. That it's correct

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I LOVED that one--I was living in Westfield at the time.  Probably one of their biggest storms ever.

it is a bit warmer to start with that one , yeah that was the last time I saw ttsn+ in a synoptic event....and it went on to clobber cne and most of nne too

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

what do you have left for glacier base?

I measured 4" when I got home Tuesday afternoon.  I'm guessing somewhere between 3-4" going into this.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That is one sick band of snow the RGEM develops over E NY and pivots east. It shows as rain..but that would be snow with elevation. That's my hope here. That it's correct

I forecast 6 for you, 2 for me

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I forecast 6 for you, 2 for me

Lol. No way here. 3 is max.

[Lava Rock]

I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. 

Looks like we might be looking little better with tick east.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

It would be helpful if you would be more specific regarding the location you are discussing, as I don't believe this assessment is accurate for the vast majority of the sub-forum. 

[ORH_wxman]

Overnight guidance definitely more favorable ORH county than most of yesterday was. Def gonna be close for some areas in that ORH to ASH corridor, but at least the very latest guidance ticked a little more favorable. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

Pickles? Is that you?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pickles? Is that you?

Yeah it is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pickles? Is that you?

I thought same thing.

[moneypitmike]

So, is this a canary in a coalmine or is the HRRR out to lunch with the qpf in central/western Mass and western CT?

 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It would be helpful if you would be more specific regarding the location you are discussing, as I don't believe this assessment is accurate for the vast majority of the sub-forum. 

I'm talking about the CP of Interior Maine, MHT-ASH-FIT and the CRV in particular. In addition the Stowe Vermont Area is also a bit of a wildcard.

I'm not talking about MWN

Where this explodes....i.e where mid levels close and deepen is huge

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

So, is this a canary in a coalmine or is the HRRR out to lunch with the qpf in central/western Mass and western CT?

 

 

 

 

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

What do you make of the RGEM?

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is def a storm that Messenger would be all over.  Really miss his input

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

.5 at low ratios is going to low-end advisory at best.  "Robbing Peter to Pay Paul", ftl.

.3" of qpf for a swath of CT and SW ORH county.  Ugly.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you make of the RGEM?

What about it. It was a bit colder so that is encouraging. There's really nothing obvious yet that we can point to that says it's right. 

[CoastalWx]

MHT getting back into the game perhaps too. It's funny how those two cities are so on the line of 2" or 8" lol. I think the probability of at least 3-4 in ORH certainly went up though. Seems like it's a question of how fast that comma head departs.