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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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19 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I do it as a hobby ~150 taps. I am in S NH..Different climate than you but it's running like crazy here. I'd image you would get a run up there over this warm spell. Tapping buckets you have a 4-5 week window after tapping before the taps start to dry out and slow down.

So if you want to try it I'd think anytime if fine. Best runs have highs above 40 after a good freeze. It will slow down after a couple days without a freeze and recharge once you get one. Given the micro climates up north it's very dependent on your location. Weather is one of the main reasons I started getting into it. Started with 20 trees and now I'm up to 150. Its alot of work but alot of fun.  

:weenie:

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I actually wanted to tap some trees this year, because I fear I may lose the opportunity soon.  Many of the large maples on my land are dying.  The ones that are left are growing in a steep and rocky area, thoroughly protected by deep snow and my ill-timed inability to walk on anything not flat and dry.

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6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think it got a bit warmer than guidance had suggested.   What was the forecasted high, 46F?   Got to 57.8F!  Cirus totally cleared out this PM and that helped.  First bit of bare ground showing on steep south slope.  Deer are taking full advantage!

  https://video.nest.com/clip/175242d9df6d434eb7ca675ea6fe10b2.mp4

 

5 hours ago, bobbutts said:

This warmth has been under-forecast for sure.  I haven't been paying close attention, but I remember Saturday being 10+ above forecast too.

Models are really struggling with the mixing height over the snow cover. Now that is a known problem of hi-res models (like the HRRR) but I guess as global models become increasingly hi-res they are beginning to suffer too. Oddly, MOS has been completely out to lunch too even though it should have a "memory" of these conditions. 

Wow, I just grabbed the GYX archived GFS Bufkit sounding from 00z last night, it never mixed GYX out. Looking at our 00z sounding from tonight, I can see a residual mixed layer got to around 925 mb. If I took the 12z GFS (which I didn't have for my forecast last night but just roll with it) and mixed down the 925 mb temp to the surface. I would have gotten 53.5 degrees at GYX. We hit 54.8. I forecast 46 for LEW (the closest point forecast to GYX). 

And now I'm kicking myself for that poop emoji forecast I put out.

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Spring flooding in February is on the way with watches up. That is definitely depressing.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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8 hours ago, eyewall said:

Spring flooding in February is on the way with watches up. That is definitely depressing.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

Work took me over to your area yesterday.  Holy lack of snow cover, Batman!

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Work to me over to your area yesterday.  Holy lack of snow cover, Batman!



We had plenty until the torch came.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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There are bare patches past Jeffersonville to within a mile or two of the Smuggs base. I saw a back country skier pop out in the notch wearing a t shirt.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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Looking at another month of well above normal temps at BTV.  Currently sitting at +5.4, and should get above +8 with this ongoing warmth.   Another month in a string of above-normal months.  I don't expect March to be any different (my guess is +4F-6F).

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15 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I actually wanted to tap some trees this year, because I fear I may lose the opportunity soon.  Many of the large maples on my land are dying.  The ones that are left are growing in a steep and rocky area, thoroughly protected by deep snow and my ill-timed inability to walk on anything not flat and dry.

I've got a dozen or so maples 14-20" diameter within 20 feet of our road, probably enough for 2-3 gallons a season, but unless/until I can find an almost-free evaporator, it remains cheaper to buy our syrup.

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By reaching 63F this afternoon, BTV has set its all all-time February high temperature. 

Because of last week's snow I will give this winter a C-.

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First "sea breeze cooler" day of the year - 60s at SFM/IZG, 40s at PWM, RKD, BHB, on S winds.  Augusta in between, at 52.  With BML/HIE in the 60s, it might be significantly warmer at home than outside the office.

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Wow, quite the quick melt on the west side in the Champlain Valley.

Still solid 10" or so here in Stowe.

As of 3pm when I left there was 27" on the ground at Barnes Camp.  That's a huge decrease from depths in the 40s but I do think the first foot was pretty much settling it out.

No idea why this image won't embed though.

http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f221/stowe_scott/Weather 2016-2017/Feb_23_Barnes_Camp_27inches_zpsvmvnyvab.jpg

Feb_23_Barnes_Camp_27inches_zpsvmvnyvab.

Pretty sweet day of spring skiing and riding though.  I'm not going to lie, if we are going to do a thaw this is the way to do it.  Sunny days and great skiing.  Lots of smiles on the hill or should I say beach. 

The-FourRunner-Quad-services-over-2000-v

 

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I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

Gender non specific stuff

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gender non specific stuff

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

My pack is much less however this last part is basically the sleet layer from  2 earlier storms.  Sun baked it today but it is very, very durable.  Grassy areas just slowly opening up even under relentless sun.  We have refrozen at night and it does take till late morning to thaw out and start remelting.  Warm temps, higher dews should really speed up melting.   Glaciated old snow is a whole different animal than fluff stuff.  Here is a 15 second video of my south facing steep slope from 9am till sunset.  The kids were sledding a couple of days ago and the deer have been all over the area but even so 65F and sunny skies didn't melt much.  https://video.nest.com/clip/9e0db8395f344d488349161acb693d78.mp4

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

 

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

In Boccawen my fields are 50% melted out, meaning 50% with no snow.  They are slight slopes and facing NW.  They are melting like crazy, but they are all sun exposed.  Shady areas still have 1"+

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10 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

 

In Boccawen my fields are 50% melted out, meaning 50% with no snow.  They are slight slopes and facing NW.  They are melting like crazy, but they are all sun exposed.  Shady areas still have 1"+

Wow. Surprised you're down to that little. Both cocorahs guys up here are both over a foot.

2/24/2017  5:08 AM  NH-MR-45  Northfield 2.8 E 0.00 0.0 18.5 NH Merrimack
2/24/2017  7:00 AM  NH-BK-1  Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 0.00 0.0 13.5 NH Belknap

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

I think the several small thaws and rains that occurred during the big snow stretch did a lot to consolidate the snowpack. I think Friday night-saturday will be the real killer. Unlikely to see a complete refreeze in all but the very highest terrain, full sun in the AM (east facing starts to bake) and then possibly an inch of rain. That should finish off the snow piles in BTV and take 6-12" off the stake. 

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I’ve added below the relevant BTV NWS forecast discussion for the upcoming snowfall potential tomorrow night.  Roger Hill’s thoughts in his WDEV broadcast this morning were a little more robust in the snowfall department, with mention of the potential for 3-5” across the higher elevations, and accumulation in all but the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys.  The high elevation point forecast for Mt. Mansfield currently has 2-4” of snow in it, so a few inches at elevation seems like the general idea.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

644 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 428 AM EST Friday...Negative tilt mid-level trough and sfc bndry shift east of our region after 03Z Sunday, with strong low-level CAA and a wly wind shift following FROPA. Should see rain end as a period of wet snow or snow showers, especially across the higher terrain during Saturday night, with temperatures falling into the upr 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Sunday. Some anafrontal character to the frontal zone per NWP time-height cross sections, and as such, should see 1- 3" snowfall across the higher summits late Saturday night as vertical temperature profiles cool sufficiently to support snow as the p-type. Even in valley locations, may see precipitation end as isold/sct snow showers, but with little or no accumulation expected.

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Was surprised to see my home thermometer down to 32° this morning.  Frost on the cars and mud in the driveway firmed up.  At least most of the snow is off my solar panels now so I should generate a little electricity.  The driveway is roughly 60% clear.  If it were March instead of February, I would be happy.

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

The-FourRunner-Quad-services-over-2000-v

 

That's a great picture. I really like to ski Upper Goat but in late spring it can be a bit sketch so I jump in at that connect right below the little cliff on Liftline. Your photo shows that hazard area between Nosedive and Goat well, there is some good skiing in there right? You can pop in there from both Nosedive and Goat...I'm typically just following my son especially in the woods so never quite sure where I'm entering/exiting! I've always assumed some of the pics you take with boulder drops as background were shot in there...

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15 hours ago, dendrite said:

I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

Still 32" at the stake this morning, down 14" from a week ago, a pretty steady 2"/day with a couple 3s.  However, the modest amount of puddles/runoff suggests more consolidation than melt.  Last Saturday's core measured 9.71" SWE in a 42" pack, meaning the snow was 23% water.  I'm guessing there's still over 9" SWE and the % is close to 30.  I think "ripe" begins when it passes 40%, so the snow still has some sponge capability.

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54 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Still 32" at the stake this morning, down 14" from a week ago, a pretty steady 2"/day with a couple 3s.  However, the modest amount of puddles/runoff suggests more consolidation than melt.  Last Saturday's core measured 9.71" SWE in a 42" pack, meaning the snow was 23% water.  I'm guessing there's still over 9" SWE and the % is close to 30.  I think "ripe" begins when it passes 40%, so the snow still has some sponge capability.

That's remarkable, tamarack.  What a terrific stretch of winter for you.

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