WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I like the Euro's look..I'll gladly take 3-6 inches and enjoy every minute of it coming down. It sucks that it's turning to rain for SNE...but it could be all rain so I'm happy that it's not. Too bad we can't get the "Scooter Sh*t Streak" from last year to show up last minute and save us???? I remember last year the "Scooter Streak" was providing to much confluence and we were hoping for it to disappear lol. I think now it would help us...No???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I like the Euro's look..I'll gladly take 3-6 inches and enjoy every minute of it coming down. It sucks that it's turning to rain for SNE...but it could be all rain so I'm happy that it's not. Too bad we can't get the "Scooter Sh*t Streak" from last year to show up last minute and save us???? I remember last year the "Scooter Streak" was providing to much confluence and we were hoping for it to disappear lol. I think now it would help us...No???? Yeah we are lacking any sort of weakness or a downstream 50/50 type low in the flow up there to produce some confluence. If we had even a little bit of that then this would be an even bigger snow thump and probably a prolonged period of icing over the interior. But small differences in this type of fast flow gradient pattern can be a big deal to sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro setting up a Christmas miracle at D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Well here's to hoping for "small differences" in this fast flow...not out of the realm of possibility I would imagine. Still that front end thump is ok with me, even if we can't hold off the rain after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro setting up a Christmas miracle at D10? That's interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I think I will set up a thread for the Thurs/Fri front/Sat snow/Sunday meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Throw remnants of a STS feature and turn it into the Dawn Awakening after hr 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Lets all make out with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 If only before the furnace comes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Some improvement on the euro ensembles at the end. I think at least with the PV on our side...it will allow for a source region nearby, especially for NNE in the pattern. So, they can probably work with what's given to us. I think for the next two weeks...we have a battle on our hands in SNE with a rather hostile look. We're going to need some well timed events I think...but it's not a hopeless look with a relatively cooler soure region. My guess this will last into part of January..but that's not a high confidence call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I think I will set up a thread for the Thurs/Fri front/Sat snow/Sunday meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some improvement on the euro ensembles at the end. I think at least with the PV on our side...it will allow for a source region nearby, especially for NNE in the pattern. So, they can probably work with what's given to us. I think for the next two weeks...we have a battle on our hands in SNE with a rather hostile look. We're going to need some well timed events I think...but it's not a hopeless look with a relatively cooler soure region. My guess this will last into part of January..but that's not a high confidence call. Yeah, the best way to describe the pattern on the EC ensembles after we get through our little ugly period next week is that it's kind of hostile, but not hopeless like Dec 2011/2006/2015. There's some cold lurking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 So just close the blinds half way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, the best way to describe the pattern on the EC ensembles after we get through our little ugly period next week is that it's kind of hostile, but not hopeless like Dec 2011/2006/2015. There's some cold lurking around. Yeah, I think that's important to let others know. This isn't the black hole years like Dec 06, 11, 15 etc. We just need some help by getting some well timed events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: So just close the blinds half way? Well it's definitely more serviceable with latitude and being inland for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's definitely more serviceable with latitude and being inland for sure. So far, This has reminded me a little of 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: So far, This has reminded me a little of 2007 It's like a crappier version of 2007...with a little more luck we probably would have been hammered harder in the 12/12 event and this upcoming event would be our next 12/16/07. But we haven't gotten any well-timed highs...that last one almost pulled it off but then trended back against us. Up your way, you are still doing decent...down here a little messier with ugly transition events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 nam always puffin the panama red at public parks throughout the northeast in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's like a crappier version of 2007...with a little more luck we probably would have been hammered harder in the 12/12 event and this upcoming event would be our next 12/16/07. But we haven't gotten any well-timed highs...that last one almost pulled it off but then trended back against us. Up your way, you are still doing decent...down here a little messier with ugly transition events. Yeah, The 12/13 and 12/16 event here were 3.0" and 7.5" back in 2007, 12/12/16, 7.3", 12/17? TBD, 5-8" possibly, So we may end up ahead of it to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: So just close the blinds half way? That way neighbors only see you from waist down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, The 12/13 and 12/16 event here were 3.0" and 7.5" back in 2007, 12/12/16, 7.3", 12/17? TBD, 5-8" possibly, So we may end up ahead of it to start. You had a lot more in the 12/3/07 event though, right? That was mostly a quick snow to ice system down in ORH...think we got just over an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You had a lot more in the 12/3/07 event though, right? That was mostly a quick snow to ice system down in ORH...think we got just over an inch or so. That was another 7.5" up here, Total wise, We are behind that season, But storm wise with over runners, Similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This looks like a net gain on this graphic NAM looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Too bad that trough wouldn't sharpen up some more on the 21st. Still long way to go so a chance it could get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Too bad that trough wouldn't sharpen up some more on the 21st. Still long way to go so a chance it could get closer Euro tried to get something going with that system. Was a close miss...prob a little snow for SE MA. But it has a low prob chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Jeez something brewing for Christmas Eve. Will there be enough cold air around. Looks bottled up in Que. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Well it's way out there but having a system moving up the coast is a better scenario than the low moving into Detroit. It's serviceable at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You had a lot more in the 12/3/07 event though, right? That was mostly a quick snow to ice system down in ORH...think we got just over an inch or so. Although its been very nice up this way so far, I still think December 2007 was better. There was a MUCH better low elevation snowpack in place. That system on 12/16-17/07 was a solid storm... PNS shows 15" in Stowe area and most of the BTV region had 14-18". ...LAMOILLE COUNTY... STOWE 15.0 1000 AM 12/17 2 MI SOUTH CAMBRIDGE 15.0 842 AM 12/17 EDEN 13.3 844 AM 12/17 COOP JEFFERSONVILLE 12.5 859 AM 12/17 COOP ...CHITTENDEN COUNTY... HANKSVILLE 18.3 859 AM 12/17 COOP MILTON 18.0 700 AM 12/17 NWS EMPLOYEE ESSEX JUNCTION 17.6 901 AM 12/17 COOP SOUTH BURLINGTON 15.5 730 AM 12/17 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH BURLINGTON 15.5 841 AM 12/17 SOUTH BURLINGTON 14.4 930 AM 12/17 AIRPORT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Although its been very nice up this way so far, I still think December 2007 was better. There was a MUCH better low elevation snowpack in place. That system on 12/16-17/07 was a solid storm... PNS shows 15" in Stowe area and most of the BTV region had 14-18". That was a signature storm that month...I remember we had about 9 inches in ORH followed by brief sleet, to dryslot freezing drizzle. Spent pretty much all day in the teens and 20s, and then maxed out at 31F when the FROPA occurred. It was a huge bust...we were supposed to warm into the upper 30s or low 40s and of course the snowfall was supposed to be 3-6". I was NOWCASTing that storm all night and remember calling up to say the forecast was going to bust...be prepared for more snow. Anyways...this year has been pretty active so far like that month, but we're not quite getting the same high placements. As discussed already in the past system...the high placement helps not only with holding in the cold at all levels, but it can increase the QPF in those systems...really wring out the atmosphere with big time frontogenesis. The 12/12 system and this one coming up on Saturday could have been much bigger events if the highs were anchored just a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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