RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will any thoughts on snow for tomorrow over the Cape and Plymouth, MA? start a thread for it, lets keep this a region wide model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 We pray for Canadian and ukie. Completely bummed that we can't even hang onto a crusty inch around Christmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 GGEM is an ORH paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 The pattern so far of trending colder in the lead up to events gives me hope, but I won't get fully onboard the hope train until either euro or gfs show something trending in a good direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Canadian won't give up. GFS trying for something Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian won't give up. GFS trying for something Boxing Day. Sprawling scooter high on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Canadian would be an interior sapling snapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 The question I've been wanting to ask but haven't, is whether we get the sneaky scooter high in this pattern. With the deep snowcover from song north into Canada it wouldn't take much to bring snow in an iffy setbup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Every event so far this season in the long range has shown cutter just to dampen out the waves as the move NE as we start to get inside day 10, 12z GFS is showing this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sprawling scooter high on gfs. Not bad. All I want for Christmas is a sprawling high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The question I've been wanting to ask but haven't, is whether we get the sneaky scooter high in this pattern. With the deep snowcover from song north into Canada it wouldn't take much to bring snow in an iffy setbup GFS says we get just that on the 26th. As an aside, that's one of the reasons that it's difficult to completely write off a period as some have done. As long as you aren't in a complete disaster(see 2011, 2015), and have cold/snow nearby, all it takes is some good luck and a well-timed high to make magic happen. Lower chances than in a -EPO/NAO pattern, sure, but not unreasonable by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The question I've been wanting to ask but haven't, is whether we get the sneaky scooter high in this pattern. With the deep snowcover from song north into Canada it wouldn't take much to bring snow in an iffy setbup The snow cover acts more To help with cold delivery. The mid and upper level patterns dictate the surface features. So a scooter high probably wouldn't come about just from snow cover, but snow does help refrigerate the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: GFS says we get just that on the 26th. As an aside, that's one of the reasons that it's difficult to completely write off a period as some have done. As long as you aren't in a complete disaster(see 2011, 2015), and have cold/snow nearby, all it takes is some good luck and a well-timed high to make magic happen. Lower chances than in a -EPO/NAO pattern, sure, but not unreasonable by any means. Thank you! Fingers crossed because we are on the cusp of a great winter. We have around a foot of snow that is now filled with moisture and about to become frozen through and through, and if we can get some good snow cover on top of that will have a great winter for snowshoeing cross country skiing and snowmobiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The snow cover acts more To help with cold delivery. The mid and upper level patterns dictate the surface features. So a scooter high probably wouldn't come about just from snow cover, but snow does help refrigerate the surface. But indirectly if The snow cover helps to create strong thermal gradient, which is now in place near the Massachusetts New Hampshire border doesn't that kind of encourage low pressure to track along or south of that gradient and then doesn't that kind of allow high pressure even if weak, to build to the north? Even if temporary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: But indirectly if The snow cover helps to create strong thermal gradient, which is now in place near the Massachusetts New Hampshire border doesn't that kind of encourage low pressure to track along or south of that gradient and then doesn't that kind of allow high pressure even if weak, to build to the north? Even if temporary? I think the features such as jet steaks and 500mb s/ws would overwhelm anything like snow pack. What snowpack can do is to help keep the inversion near surface and limit warm protrusions like today...esp in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the features such as jet steaks and 500mb s/ws would overwhelm anything like snow pack. What snowpack can do is to help keep the inversion near surface and limit warm protrusions like today...esp in the interior. Thank you! It's pretty awesome north of con now. Headed back from chicago today. Let me know when you are coming up. I am literally 2-3 miles off of 93 exit 17 in boscawen. You can have an awesome snow walk on our land and warm up by the fire. We just finished a Thoreau styled one room stone cottage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Thank you! It's pretty awesome north of con now. Headed back from chicago today. Let me know when you are coming up. I am literally 2-3 miles off of 93 exit 17 in boscawen. You can have an awesome snow walk on our land and warm up by the fire. We just finished a Thoreau styled one room stone cottage. I was right near you then back in September. At a wedding in an old barn in boscawen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Grinch storm is gone from 6z and 12z gfs? I'd be happy not to get inches of rain on christmas eve eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 28 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Grinch storm is gone from 6z and 12z gfs? I'd be happy not to get inches of rain on christmas eve eve Am I reading the GFS right in that it freshens things up on the 23rd instead of a torch cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Am I reading the GFS right in that it freshens things up on the 23rd instead of a torch cutter? Yeah, I like these dummy charts from coolwx. Just the p-type and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 GGEM looks decent for some chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 It almost like a programmer added an algorithm to the GFS that sends every storm into the lakes. It been doing that since early November. It's like a default lakes cutter and we can adjust east as necessary. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GGEM looks decent for some chances It always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Weak wave on euro. Just some light qpf. Def nothing like a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Weak wave on euro. Just some light qpf. Def nothing like a cutter. Yeah weaker for sure. Would limit torch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Tries to redevelop, but it's congrats Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Dry normal temps week. Sipprell warm wet week FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Looks like models are keying on a significant cold plunge right after Xmas with a similar evolution to a system as we just experienced timed reasonably well. The key thing is Canada cold isn't going anywhere which is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I was right near you then back in September. At a wedding in an old barn in boscawen. You can't accept messages so if you can, message me and I'll give contact info if you wanna stop by on ur way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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