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December Banter Thread


mattie g
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Hawaii is going to see snow before us :(

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 AM HST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET.

HIZ028-020230-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0001.161201T2200Z-161203T0400Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.WS.W.0001.161201T1317Z-161203T0400Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
317 AM HST THU DEC 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6
  INCHES EXPECTED.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY BUILDUP ON ROADWAYS POSSIBLE DUE TO
  FREEZING FOG.
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Oh to be in Maine in very heavy snow!

 

current.jpg?1480605061 

https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/colbycottage/1/show.html

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016

MEZ001-002-004>006-011615-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-
933 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PISCATAQUIS...
AROOSTOOK AND NORTH CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...

AT 925 AM EST...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MAINE. THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...HOULTON...FORT KENT...MADAWASKA...FORT
FAIRFIELD...LIMESTONE...VAN BUREN...PATTEN...EAGLE LAKE...ALLAGASH...
DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...BAXTER ST PARK...PORTAGE...MOUNT KATAHDIN...
MAPLETON...WASHBURN...MARS HILL...HODGDON AND ASHLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN MILE MAKERS 264 AND 304.
 US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN NORTH AMITY AND FORT KENT.
 STATE HIGHWAY 11 BETWEEN STACYVILLE AND FORT KENT.

  * WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA OF HEAVY
  SNOW.

  * VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE IN
  THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW.

  * SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
  IN THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING. HEAVY WET SNOW COATING TREES AND POWER LINES
ALONG WITH GUSTY WIND COULD LEAD TO SNAPPED BRANCHES AND SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES

LAT...LON 4743 6904 4726 6905 4718 6890 4724 6861
      4729 6858 4729 6838 4736 6836 4736 6823
      4707 6779 4700 6779 4592 6775 4580 6907
      4746 6918
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 240DEG 49KT 4681 6782
$$

NORCROSS

 

 

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26 minutes ago, H2O said:

tail end cold load is legit looking.  

 

So many pieces moving around on these runs.  Only thing that looks stable for the whole run is the Bearing Sea ridge.  That helps keep some of the PV over on our side the next couple weeks.  W Canada certainly won't be torching

Some serious cold with or without precip would be welcomed for the week before and after Christmas.  Pond skating, or even hiking, in extra cold and dry is okay with me.

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Looks like I got people worked up by posting what Cansip has done in terms of solid accuracy over the last several months. I'm not endorsing it...just showing it. 

That said, I'm inclined to wonder if people who are denying its usefulness would be as vocal against the model if it showed wall to wall cold DJF. 

Weather is serious bizness yo  

 

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15 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:
Quote

 

Looks like I got people worked up by posting what Cansip has done in terms of solid accuracy over the last several months. I'm not endorsing it...just showing it. 

That said, I'm inclined to wonder if people who are denying its usefulness would be as vocal against the model if it showed wall to wall cold DJF

Weather is serious bizness yo  

 

 

Yes. The CFS is a running joke around here too, whether it is showing cold and snow or warmth and sun. The ability of any long-range model to get this right three months out draws a laugh from me, as does REPEATEDLY posting same on day 1 of met winter. But, sure, it could be right. The entire world is on fire, so, warm is certainly possible. All hail the parSNIPS.

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34 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yes. The CFS is a running joke around here too, whether it is showing cold and snow or warmth and sun. The ability of any long-range model to get this right three months out draws a laugh from me, as does REPEATEDLY posting same on day 1 of met winter. But, sure, it could be right. The entire world is on fire, so, warm is certainly possible. All hail the parSNIPS.

Absolutely.  The CFS is for sh*ts and giggles only.

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1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

Looks like I got people worked up by posting what Cansip has done in terms of solid accuracy over the last several months. I'm not endorsing it...just showing it. 

That said, I'm inclined to wonder if people who are denying its usefulness would be as vocal against the model if it showed wall to wall cold DJF. 

Weather is serious bizness yo  

 

You have to wonder? ;)

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yes. The CFS is a running joke around here too, whether it is showing cold and snow or warmth and sun. The ability of any long-range model to get this right three months out draws a laugh from me, as does REPEATEDLY posting same on day 1 of met winter. But, sure, it could be right. The entire world is on fire, so, warm is certainly possible. All hail the parSNIPS.

I didn't post anything about the CFS. 

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I get that. And yet, catNIPs gets the same general taken with 800 grains of salt. But, congrats!!! on repeatedly canceling winter on day 1 of met winter this morning and continuing to return to it. You da man!

I showed a model that has been spot on in its long range accuracy with examples. Why are you upset about that? 

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ahh don't worry about that. Are you familiar with the phrase "when America has a cold, the world catches pneumonia"? What you need to know is that in this region, when the north gets a scratch, sometimes, we get rabies. Rabies kills efficiency and without mercy.

Negative news from any source is akin to a pathogen. If left unchecked, It has the potential to multiply into a full blown panic/despair virus that jumps from weenie to weenie until it has consumed so many souls that it burns itself out.

Some people are genetically predisposed to fight this scourge, but all are susceptible if the virus is virulent and infectious enough. I'm not saying don't be negative--you have to build up monthlies immunity to survive the pathogens that come from true killers like the GFS or Euro, but just know that this early in the season, we would really hate to have an outbreak, which means that the response to a cough is handled with extreme prejudice.

 

Good response. I considered posting something about all those throwing a Hissy fit over the Sips but I find yours is much more diplomatic. :)

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13 minutes ago, mfastx said:

With both met summer and autumn being wildly above normal for our area, it makes sense for that trend to continue doesn't it?  What did last met winter end up as? 

Persistence forecasting works great until the band breaks. It always does. Could be this month or it could be 6 months down the line. From what it looks like right now, it looks like this month. 

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