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ULL, up slope snow LES, Squalls winds 11-20-22

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs qpf blob was further to the NE. It wasn't in the traditional upslope areas which made it weird. From what I can see, I don't think those amounts varified where it had it. Different story in the favored areas.

Agreed. I've been keeping an eye on places like MSS and just SE. The GFS looks to have busted on that monster blob. It basically had widespread 25"+ all up and down the river plain there. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

What about that trough that dumped like 8-9 inches in a few hours in the early evening over a tiny little sliver of western CT (I think maybe Washington or maybe it was slightly west of there was the jackpot) a few years back? Not as impressive as 16 inches, but that was an even more localized freak type of event.

Are you talking about the Notlun Trough back in January of 2011??  I picked up about 10 inches here in SOUTHINGTON from that bugger...it came Down-like crazy for like 4 hours.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You know I don't bash you guys but the last couple of days I was SMDH at ALB .  Issued an advisory for NWCT then dropped it as snowfall intensity was increasing  I also think some sort of black Ice warning should have been given last night .  I heard their were multiple accidents this AM but at 11 last night I didn't hear anything on that possibility .  Maybe I missed it but didn't see any thing on the media suggesting it either. 

My forecast for Litchfield county was :axe: but I did call for the Monday am issues statewide Thursday and Friday afternoon. Classic setup for isolated bands making it into the valley and shoreline.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That was a Norlun in Jan '11, a few days before the blizzard. I believe a few spots picked up close to 15" in that. I had 7 or 8 north of New Haven. That was a great event, the first over several great events that month.

Yup that was a huge bust by me lol. This is the most prolific upslope event I can remember in the last 10 years. The first 5" or so prior to 12z Sunday wasn't upslope but rather the ULL... but I'd argue the 10" of upslope since is really rare stuff for NW CT.

enough low level moisture (and some bonus mid level moisture) to keep upslope machine going.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

I do lots of trolling here as I learn lots in your thread...so i thought id share if y'all want to see some crazy snow in the Tug Hill area.

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm 

If you've already got it...sorry for the repeat.  Glad to see you in some early action...you guys are due.  Just save some for me and my family in Jan.  Headed up for a ski trip.  Not sure where yet.

Nut

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an exceptional event that was (I think we're thinking of the same thing). If I remember correctly, that paralyzed part of the state. Wild stuff.

It was like the event right before the first blizzard that January.  Came in at about 4:30pm that afternoon/evening, and ramped up steadily over the course of the first hour, until it was very heavy til about 10:30 pm.   I didn't believe in the idea of the Norlund..then that event came in and changed my mind. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

 

 

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is a mini-blizzard of late jan 66, was talking with forky about it earlier.

Was thinking same.  1966 is kind of the gold standard around Syracuse for those old enough to remember, other than perhaps Storm O' Century in 1993.  The 85 y.o. Woman I bought my house from here north of SYR talked about 1966 and included grainy pics of it in her family history album.  So it made an impression up here.

Oddly, or perhaps not, this is nearly the biggest single event I can remember around Syracuse since I moved here in 2004, other than VD II which was a 2 part multi day butt kicking.  A lot of 10-18" multi day events over the years that blend into LES and it all becomes one conjoined memory after enough years as it snows so frequently.   We get the fringes of coastals usually and don't usually jackpot synoptic totals but make it up the days after the storm when LES kicks in while the coastal plain is digging out under blue skies.  Makes for some extended long duration fun. Although this takes the onus off of feeling the need to invest emotionally in synoptic storms as you know LES is like being the casino with the vig. ;)

Was glad to see BGM cash in for once, and in an unusual way.  Back in the day, before SNE and NYC started getting Blizzards every other year (which coincided with me leaving CT in 2001), BGM (and ALB) would always cash in while the coastal areas got out the squeegees.  I think the same is, or was the trend for Maine also, curiously.  Luck of the draw, or some sort of probabilistic cycle I suppose.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup that was a huge bust by me lol. This is the most prolific upslope event I can remember in the last 10 years. The first 5" or so prior to 12z Sunday wasn't upslope but rather the ULL... but I'd argue the 10" of upslope since is really rare stuff for NW CT.

enough low level moisture (and some bonus mid level moisture) to keep upslope machine going.

This is how you do it right? Open and warm Great Lakes, maximize water content, strong flow to carry downstream.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

11.5" over an hour ago at 1200ft on Edson Hill Road in Stowe.  From a friend via these terrible cell photos.  They are about half way from me to the mountain and up a side road of 108.  Still snowing lightly here though has vastly dropped off in intensity.  Pretty much flurries at this point but still big flakes, will probably go out soon with the dog for a final measurement.

EdsonHill.png

EdsonHill2.png

 

 

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup that was a huge bust by me lol. This is the most prolific upslope event I can remember in the last 10 years. The first 5" or so prior to 12z Sunday wasn't upslope but rather the ULL... but I'd argue the 10" of upslope since is really rare stuff for NW CT.

enough low level moisture (and some bonus mid level moisture) to keep upslope machine going.

Haven't heard of a NW flow event dumping 12" in Litchfield county.  I see plenty of decent matches on the CIPS though so not sure what was unique about this event other than the warm lake temps.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs qpf blob was further to the NE. It wasn't in the traditional upslope areas which made it weird. From what I can see, I don't think those amounts varified where it had it. Different story in the favored areas.

Wait Colton NY had 20 last check and it's still dumping up there, where are we talking about ? Looks like it's not over

gfs_asnow_neus_15.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Posted

These old timers explained this well in the Upstate NY thread

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Going to take a while to wrap my brain around this storm.  I think it's almost the largest single event since I moved here in 2004.  VD II (2007?) may have been a bit more over 2+ days but that was a very distinguishable two part storm,  a synoptic phase of 15-16" and about 10-12" of lake effect afterwards.  This is sort of a bizarre lake assisted hybrid featuring an ULL and triple point slp that germinated northeast of here. Violates the classic weenie axiom that backside and "wraparound" snows usually underperform.  And the fetch of moisture that wrapped around in the CCB all the way from Bermuda...I don't remember a storm quite like this, especially when the original primary buried Minnesota and headed well north of here, into Quebec, funneling record (?) warmth, near 70 in SYR, into NY the day before the storm. Not a classic Miller A or B for these parts, I think.   Would love to see NWS or other Mets due a post-mortem on this.

Lake Effect King said:

Really a great event....deformation snows flowing over the top of shallower LES.....cloud seeding from above FTW.  And the deform bands were able to snow hard outside the LES bands without disruption of the surface flow supporting the LES....So you had upper level snows at around 1"/hr.....pure LES under those that put out 1-2"/hr....and when the two overlapped, upwards of 3"/hr.....

We need more stacked lows over S. Quebec/N. VT.... :)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

These old timers explained this well in the Upstate NY thread

Lake Effect King said:

Really a great event....deformation snows flowing over the top of shallower LES.....cloud seeding from above FTW.  And the deform bands were able to snow hard outside the LES bands without disruption of the surface flow supporting the LES....So you had upper level snows at around 1"/hr.....pure LES under those that put out 1-2"/hr....and when the two overlapped, upwards of 3"/hr.....

We need more stacked lows over S. Quebec/N. VT.... :)

I fully support the sentiment that the NWS should do a case review of this event. I look forward to seeing it during NROW next year.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wait Colton NY had 20 last check and it's still dumping up there, where are we talking about ? Looks like it's not over

gfs_asnow_neus_15.png

cornwall had 10 to 15 cm at 10 am per the observer there, the MSS obs haven't been too impressive either, seem to verify that. 16 cm in Ottawa as of 5 pm. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Syrmax lived in Gon area during the worst of times. He would have loved 2015 but yeah that's the most snow in SYR since the Superstorm 93

True. GON is the snowhole of snowholes.  Almost 2 decades there in 80s and 90s have permanently scarred me. I lived in SE VA in high school but down there you expect nothing.  And for the most part that's what you get.  I worship Lake Ontario as a Demi goddess now. ;)

 In KGON in winter, no one can hear you scream...

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Unrelenting , will be interesting to see final totals from this band

Screenshot_20161121-190724.png

Elevated areas west of Ottawa did better...Renfrew etc.  I've seen as high as 30 cm out there. 

 

There was some observable loss on the webcams yesterday in eastern Ontario, even though temperatures were below zero, warm sub-surface temps and modest snowfall rates led to little net gain until later in the day when the sun went down. 

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Syrmax lived in Gon area during the worst of times. He would have loved 2015 but yeah that's the most snow in SYR since the Superstorm 93

Posters that live in Syracuse forget to quickly. This is why I'm the lake effect historian on this forum. ^_^

I recently purchased a book with all the news articles of weather/Lake effect events that goes back to the 1800s, definitely the best book I own.

https://web.archive.org/web/20130209004626/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1011/c/stormsumc.html

 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Posters that live in Syracuse forget to quickly. This is why I'm the lake effect historian on this forum. ^_^

https://web.archive.org/web/20130209004626/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1011/c/stormsumc.html

 

I forgot about that...we did get about 50" at my place, but it was over about a week. Was still impressive and unrelenting.  I was more talking about synoptic scale events.  And then there was the 100" in Oswego (where I worked) in a week in 2007.  Only downside was my house got like 8". But 10 miles north was pretty much a Mad Max movie set for a week.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Posted
34 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

True. GON is the snowhole of snowholes.  Almost 2 decades there in 80s and 90s have permanently scarred me. I lived in SE VA in high school but down there you expect nothing.  And for the most part that's what you get.  I worship Lake Ontario as a Demi goddess now. ;)

 In KGON in winter, no one can hear you scream...

Lol hey 13/14/15 were heaven for GON, Sh it GON topped HFD in 15

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