IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Me two I see what you did their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Want to save this winter? Then take a Bunsen Burner up to the stratosphere on the double. Latest weeklies are either too hot to touch or just hot enough to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Want to save this winter? Then take a Bunsen Burner up to the stratosphere on the double. Latest weeklies are either too hot to touch or just hot enough to torch. Do these "weeklies" ever not show a torch? Or if they do show cold you just don't post about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: E Li gets crushed. NYC gets a solid moderate hit. With trends like this, it's nor far from a SECS for the 95 corridor. Don't worry. You have 12 more NAM runs to look at tonight in the next 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Don't worry. You have 12 more NAM runs to look at tonight in the next 20 mins. Don't be jelly because the 1.573839937km has a pixel of 33.74dbz over my apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Back to reality in less than 1 hour. And I hope you guys know I'm rooting for the NAM here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NCEP loves trolling me. F*cking Ohleary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Moderate snow here with unrestricted visibility and 20,000 foot ceiling. It could even be heavy. It's hard to tell because all I see is lights to the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 not sure why i got five posted i guess my meteorology terms are not up to date. maybe my grammar isn't well defined. the truth is i love tracking snowstorms more than anything. i live for this. i just wanted to say that we should trust the nam and ukmet at this range. I would go with the nam, also i guarantee that the euro comes west. last night i mentioned that the models would start trending west yes i did kinda give up on this storm a few days ago but i got fished in by nam. I'm not the smartest guy but i go with my feelings when it comes to weather and guidance helps me pick my gut. if the euro doesn't come west than you can take my word with a grain of salt. I'm thinking this a 4-8 inch snow for nyc metro. i think nyc gets 2 inches tonight. its a slow moving wave and no wind so i think we get 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ^ Currently we can't 5 post or un-5 post people. Been that way for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Moderate snow here with unrestricted visibility and 20,000 foot ceiling. It could even be heavy. It's hard to tell because all I see is lights to the horizon. Maybe we should do a tutorial on how to define snowfall rates the for the newbs and weenies on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Maybe we should do a tutorial on how to define snowfall rates the for the newbs and weenies on the board I'd be interested just so I can describe what I'm seeing in a semi-educated manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 My thoughts on the whole forecast / verification discussion is as follows. I generally operate by attempting to accurately prognosticate a period/time frame and subsequently verify that forecast (either explaining what went wrong or right) thereafter. I usually focus on my own ideas, although there is certainly nothing wrong with comparing various forecasts in the spirit of friendly competition. Moreover, issuing a forecast does open one up for potential criticism in the event that the forecast does not progress as planned. As long as these critiques are devoid of ad hominem, I see no issue with post forecast critique. That is the nature of the beast and people will hold you accountable for forecasts. One could argue that forecasting is sometimes a thankless endeavor given there's often a focus on someone's poor call, but this is why I believe it necessary to verify and recognize all forecasts - examining why a call busted or succeeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Referring to the last winter discussion, a blizzard and a severe cold shot doesn't save a winter in my book. Sure, one hit wonders are entertaining but I prefer a band with lots of material. To each their own, just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 59 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes. I never understand experienced hobbyists latching onto the NAM like that. It's like groundhog day. Now we are back to "thunderstorms in the gulf may pull this system NW". I expect this stuff from newbies, but not from seasoned hobbyists. Unfortunately, those of us who challenge these ideas are often attacked. These are supposed to be weather boards for the objective forecasting and following of the weather. They are not wishcasting boards, which many, not just this board, have become. In fact, this board is less so than some others, which are over the top. You called wave 2 dead less than 48 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: You called wave 2 dead less than 48 hrs ago. Dead ? You are totally wrong . I said wave 2 rides along the Arctic boundary 8 days ago - go back and check . With 500 looking like that you will see SN to NYC and beyond - this is 15:1 so .4 give 6 and .7 is 10. W to E IF I am wrong I call BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, BxEngine said: You called wave 2 dead less than 48 hrs ago. Yea, when all of the models, including the NAM, had less for Wave 2 than Wave 1. But when the NAM showed me getting 2 feet, i didnt go out and buy a new snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Yea, when all of the models, including the NAM, had less for Wave 2 than Wave 1. But when the NAM showed me getting 2 feet, i didnt go out and buy a new snowblower. Meteorology, not modelology, right? Thought a seasoned hobbyist would know better than to declare a threat dead 48 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Meteorology, not modelology, right? Thought a seasoned hobbyist would know better than to declare a threat dead 48 hrs out I dont think i actually called it dead. And even based on meteorology, the threat looked piss poor. The better sampling changed that. But it isnt about who wins or loses, its about not hyping up an event based on one model. Very different than being down on a storm because no models show it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, danstorm said: Dead ? You are totally wrong . I said wave 2 rides along the Arctic boundary 8 days ago - go back and check . With 500 looking like that you will see SN to NYC and beyond - this is 15:1 so .4 give 6 and .7 is 10. W to E IF I am wrong I call BUST Even the spacing between the end of a word and the period - very nice. 9 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: I dont think i actually called it dead. And even based on meteorology, the threat looked piss poor. The better sampling changed that. But it isnt about who wins or loses, its about not hyping up an event based on one model. Very different than being down on a storm because no models show it haha. Nah you didnt call it dead, but you specifically agreed with someone who did. Just pointing out that no one is perfect, time for cooler heads to prevail, especially in non banter threads. I just like busting your balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Nah you didnt call it dead, but you specifically agreed with someone who did. Just pointing out that no one is perfect, time for cooler heads to prevail, especially in non banter threads. I agree. Cooler heads meaning not calling for a MECS based solely on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Referring to the last winter discussion, a blizzard and a severe cold shot doesn't save a winter in my book. Sure, one hit wonders are entertaining but I prefer a band with lots of material. To each their own, just my two cents. It got us to average while without it would've been a top 5 lowest snowfall year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: I agree. Cooler heads meaning not calling for a MECS based solely on the NAM. And not declaring a threat dead then getting mad at someone else for doing the same thing. See what i mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: And not declaring a threat dead then getting mad at someone else for doing the same thing. See what i mean? Huh? Enough with the trolling man. It's getting old. He was calling it dead DESPITE all modeling showing otherwise. I was down on it because ALL MODELING showed it dead. Get it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Huh? Enough with the trolling man. It's getting old. He was calling it dead DESPITE all modeling showing otherwise. I was down on it because ALL MODELING showed it dead. Get it now? Im not trolling even a little. You agreed it was dead. you werent "down" on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It got us to average while without it would've been a top 5 lowest snowfall year True and it was an awesome storm for many, everyone knows I didn't come close to half of average last year. Like I said, to each their own. Maybe if I got the blizzard I'd see it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: True and it was an awesome storm for many, everyone knows I didn't come close to half of average last year. Like I said, to each their own. Maybe if I got the blizzard I'd see it differently. You guys got hosed last winter, no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: You guys got hosed last winter, no question. No doubt and with the sting of being in the sweet spot on the Euro for the '15 blizzard only to have it shift east still relatively fresh. Life goes on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 step one: ban pb, yanksfan, and metfan. step two: watch the board get better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.