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October 2016 Discussion/Obs


Rtd208

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Biggest AO drop in the forecast since April. We'll see if this is an early October precursor to the winter pattern or not.

Not much cold available outside Siberia or Western North America as the Arctic really warms up relative to the means.

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_21.png

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Give us that in winter!

Only one winter with below normal snowfall in the winters following a -2.5 or lower AO in October. The interesting thing about 06-07 was that while we had 

the -AO in February with cold , we were unlucky to get an ice and sleet storm instead of snowstorm on Valentine's day. 2014-15 was all about the extreme

-EPO drop in November carrying over into winter instead of the October pattern.

 

October -AO drops below -2.5 since 2002 and following winters:

 

OCT 2015...AN snow

 OCT 2014...AN snow

OCT 2012...N to AN snow

OCT 2010...AN snow

OCT 2009..AN snow

OCT 2006...BN snow with cold and -AO in February

OCT 2003...AN snow

OCT 2002...AN snow

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The drought carries on, looks like another fairly dry week following the cut off low bust o rama.

This is starting to become insane. Watching all that moisture ride up the coast only to desolve at the last second. 6 days of cloudiness and less then .5 to show for it here on the island. 

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Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0.

These types of very impressive  October -AO readings were rare before 2002.

 

Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month

2014...-3.993

2012...-3.195

2009...-3.415

2006...-3.192

2003...-3.297

2002...-5.098

1991...-3.044

1984...-3.087

1981....-3.076

1979....-3.471

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0.

These types of very impressive  October -AO readings were rare before 2002.

 

Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month

2014...-3.993

2012...-3.195

2009...-3.415

2006...-3.192

2003...-3.297

2002...-5.098

1991...-3.044

1984...-3.087

1981....-3.076

1979....-3.471

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there.   The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however.

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5 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there.   The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however.

I wouldn't focus on the current drought for the coming winter. Synoptic systems and Strataform rains/snow will not depend as much on things like local soil moisture content. 

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6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn't focus on the current drought for the coming winter. Synoptic systems and Strataform rains/snow will not depend as much on things like local soil moisture content. 

Oh no doubt re: soil moisture.  I'm just more concerned that suppression seems to have been the name of the game for quite some time now.  Hope it doesn't continue through the winter!

Many other factors to take into account and hopefully they all align in our favor.  Dying for some exciting weather here!!

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14 hours ago, Eduardo said:

The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there.   The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however.

here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both...

1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter...

1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter...

1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic...

1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow...

1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold...

1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here...

1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold...

2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter...

2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month...

2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter...

2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow...

2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January...

 

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On 10/4/2016 at 2:05 PM, bluewave said:

Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0.

These types of very impressive  October -AO readings were rare before 2002.

 

Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month

2014...-3.993

2012...-3.195

2009...-3.415

2006...-3.192

2003...-3.297

2002...-5.098

1991...-3.044

1984...-3.087

1981....-3.076

1979....-3.471

 

do you have the dates of those indices?

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23 hours ago, uncle W said:

here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both...

Ensembles hinting that we could be in for another -1.00 or lower -AO month in addition to the very low daily numbers coming up.

Quite a trend for the 2000's so far.

tsgcos.corr.173.77.158.168.279.5.58.48.png

 

eps_ao_00.png

 

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Interestingly, for only the second time in my 35 years living on the UES of Manhattan, dew fell last night.  This is cooborated by obs - at LGA by the water, temp got within 4 degrees of the dew point, and I guess here the car hoods got just cold enough.  Very cool.

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