12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

I said it's doubtful I didn't say it was impossible. Even if environmental pressures are higher than normal 20 mbar is a ton  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

True, which is why I think satellite estimates are closer to being right, right now, a pressure of 936mb isn't impossible since the HHs left the hurricane about thirty minutes ago and no eyewall replacement cycle is happening.  I don't think he peaked yet

[Bostonseminole]

looks like it will be a cat 5 at 11

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

looks like it will be a cat 5 at 11

I agree

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Satellite estimates suggest 933mb and 130 knot winds

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Next flight into Matthew is in another hour or so I believe.

[RobertSul]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

940 is approximately 20 mbar to high of a pressure for category five - where are we getting 160 mph sustained winds from ?  They could be gusting that high at the surface but that's a doubtful velocity at those pressures

 Is the pressure reading influenced by how abnormally far south it is? Some of Matthew's bands are reaching South America. Are systems in this part of the world normally some amount of millibars higher than would be expected farther north? 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I agree

 

looks like it will be a cat 5 at 11

 

CIMSS already changed their graphic to cat5 so I wonder if they know already

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

They probably do like the ATCF does

[donsutherland1]

140 knots (Category 5) at 11 pm.

[78Blizzard]

941 mb

[Bostonseminole]

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

[ineedsnow]

Cat 5 wow

[HIPPYVALLEY]

There will be interaction with Jamaica, Cuba and the Caribbean Islands and upper level dynamics over the conus in the next 48 hours that will completely change model output over the next few days.  I can't believe people have actually been speculating on NE Coast impact.

[Hoth]

First in 9 years. And a beaut at that!

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be interaction with Jamaica, Cuba and the Caribbean Islands and upper level dynamics over the conus in the next 48 hours that will completely change model output over the next few days.  I can't believe people have actually been speculating on NE Coast impact.

Nobody is speculating, just watching the model outputs and admiring a great storm. Sure beats talk of drought or snizzle.

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be interaction with Jamaica, Cuba and the Caribbean Islands and upper level dynamics over the conus in the next 48 hours that will completely change model output over the next few days.  I can't believe people have actually been speculating on NE Coast impact.

While that may be true, the NHC has admitted now that none of the guidance ever indicated the rapid strengthening of Matthew.  Likewise, the guidance suggesting a substantial weakening after passing Jamaica may be wrong, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's definitely running an unusually high pressure interval for those wind velocities - no question. But it is what it is, or what they said is I suppose

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's definitely running an unusually high pressure interval for those wind velocities - no question. But it is what it is, or what they said is I suppose

Yeah, same pressure as Sandy, but obviously a vastly more compact organized system. Don't see many cat 5s above 925-30.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

While that may be true, the NHC has admitted now that none of the guidance ever indicated the rapid strengthening of Matthew.  Likewise, the guidance suggesting a substantial weakening after passing Jamaica may be wrong, too.

Its obviously going to weaken substantially over the high terrain of Cuba.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

 Is the pressure reading influenced by how abnormally far south it is? Some of Matthew's bands are reaching South America. Are systems in this part of the world normally some amount of millibars higher than would be expected farther north? 

The landmass of South America does have an effect on the regional synoptic scale pressure pattern to some degree but I don't know or think rather that's what's going on here.  The pressure is unusually high for wind velocity of that magnitude - i'm almost wondering if the wind velocity might relax a little before we even see eye wall replacement. The thing is the pressure bombed so fast; 44 mbar in 24 hours more than half of which was in 12 hours since this morning. those high winds might actually just be a response to that rappid pressure fall but it'll reach in equilibrium at a slower velocity given time - maybe

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be interaction with Jamaica, Cuba and the Caribbean Islands and upper level dynamics over the conus in the next 48 hours that will completely change model output over the next few days.  I can't believe people have actually been speculating on NE Coast impact.

I couldn't agree more.  I've seen way too much around where all people do is just post model SLP output maps and really fail to take into account anything else.  IMO, the projected 500mb anomalies really don't support the type of track due north into New England.  The trough that sort of digs into the Plains looks to take on a positive tilt and then begin to de-amplify and lift northeast and weaken.  While we do have some upstream blocking and there is ridging east of the system, there is a gap and an "escape" route well out to sea which at this point I think is the more likely scenario.  The 18z GFS has that subtle s/w trough that digs through the Great Lakes capture Matthew and tug it NW into New England but I don't see that happening.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I think people need to take the foot off the throttle here and step back put it back in your pants whatever you need to do to reel things in and under control. 

i'm actually amazed at NHC put out that discussion and didn't at least mention the anomalous pressure to wind relationship there. it's blatant enough. Secondly the system is going to weaken substantially if it runs up over Jamaican then hits Cuba  

 

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its obviously going to weaken substantially over the high terrain of Cuba.

Yes, it will, but it may not have weakened to 90 kt after passing Jamaica as progged, thus maintaining a better organization after passing Eastern Cuba.

[ma blizzard]

As of the 11 pm advisory hurricane force winds only extend out 45 miles from the center, implying a very compact hurricane. The pressure gradient must be incredible.

Also IIRC Matthew developed in an area of higher ambient SLP than what is typically observed in this portion of the Atlantic basin.

ATM looking for confirmation of this .. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's a really interesting perspective, Tip. Usually it seems like the winds struggle to catch up to rapid pressure falls rather than what we're seeing here. Maybe the size of the storm (the core being more compact) has an impact here?

No that is what we're saying here - the pressure fell faster than the restoringwind could keep up and now the winds are responding in lag behind those pressure falls that's what I mean. But it's hypothetical I'm not sure I'm just trying to come up with an explanation for that huge disparity in the core pressure compared to those wind velocities. 

It would go like this:. Pressure drops between 40 and 50 mbar in less than 24 hours which is about as fast as the pressure can possibly fall in any terrestrial event outside of a freaking astroid impact anyway so even Though the pressure only got down to 940 the wind has to accelerate to unusually high velocity to catch up  

[geo1]

Is the blob of convection to the east of Matthew do to shear? It seemed to be their the entire time this has developed. And if it can survive yesterday's pronged shear and become what it is what is going to weaken it as it approaches Jamaica and or Cuba?

[CT Valley Snowman]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I couldn't agree more.  I've seen way too much around where all people do is just post model SLP output maps and really fail to take into account anything else.  IMO, the projected 500mb anomalies really don't support the type of track due north into New England.  The trough that sort of digs into the Plains looks to take on a positive tilt and then begin to de-amplify and lift northeast and weaken.  While we do have some upstream blocking and there is ridging east of the system, there is a gap and an "escape" route well out to sea which at this point I think is the more likely scenario.  The 18z GFS has that subtle s/w trough that digs through the Great Lakes capture Matthew and tug it NW into New England but I don't see that happening.

We are all aware that the odds favor OTS, but that does not mean we cant and shouldn't post relevant model data like the GEFS showing a shift left at 18Z.  This is a weather forum and that is what people do.  Who is to say the 18z 500 mb pattern is completely wrong?  It very well could be but only time will tell.  You get excited about severe weather events days in advance and many times they fail because that is the nature of the beast.  Relax and let people enjoy something in this abysmal stretch of meaningless weather that we have been tortured with. If people's post become excessively emotional or hype than they belong in banter but posting GFS and GEFS model runs is par for the course.

 

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 ...the projected 500mb anomalies really don't support the type of track due north into New England.

With the average of the sphagetti charts showing 30N, 78W next week, that would hardly be a due north track into New England.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

We are all aware that the odds favor OTS, but that does not mean we cant and shouldn't post relevant model data like the GEFS showing a shift left at 18Z.  This is a weather forum and that is what people do.  Who is to say the 18z 500 mb pattern is completely wrong?  It very well could be but only time will tell.  You get excited about severe weather events days in advance and many times they fail because that is the nature of the beast.  Relax and let people enjoy something in this abysmal stretch of meaningless weather that we have been tortured with. If people's post become excessively emotional or hype than they belong in banter but posting GFS and GEFS model runs is par for the course.

 

My post wasn't directed at the forum...I barely read here anymore.  I'm talking about social media outlets (facebook, twitter, etc).  You'rw right I do get excited about severe weather events but I don't hype something up and go crazy just b/c some solution shows something crazy.  Not to goo too off topic but the events "fail" in many eyes here b/c everyone expects big outbreaks everytime or think when someone mentions severe weather it means big event.  

There is other relevant data to post and discuss about than a SLP chart which shows some major hit...all talk and discussions seem to always revolve around a SLP and some solution.  Never see much about mid-level charts or upper-level charts which are a much more accurate teller of what may transpire.  

It also has not only been the 18z GFS model run which has shown a less than stellar 500mb pattern...the past several runs have had a pretty meh 500mb look along with other pieces of guidance...but like I told someone the other day, you can't hype mid and upper level charts so they get overlooked.  

There is more "fun" in learning and expanding knowledge than just getting all gooey over SLP maps.  Perhaps if people spent more time understanding pattern types, pattern recognition, etc they wouldn't call bust and get all upset when things don't pan out.