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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas.   There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well.  Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory.  This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it.

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I wonder if there could be a tornado threat inland from Matthew once it gets to the coast.

There could be, especially as the storm makes the turn up the SC/NC Coast on the northern semi-circle. However, the greatest tornado threat may never be realized if the storm doesn't make landfall. 

Another thing to not overlook, Eastern NC had a very wet September, so even TS force winds sustained could be enough to bring whole trees down due to weaker soils. 

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Disrruption of the eye's impressive appearance was expected. The question is how well did the inner core handle things and how quickly will it rebound once it's back over water. It could look better by noon, or it could pull an Ike and take 3 days to recover. With 30C water and weak shear I doubt it takes more than 12-24 hours. Once the center is over water recon will get in there and survey the current state of the inner core. 

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46 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas.   There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well.  Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory.  This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it.

It's also going to have Storm Surge damn near 15 feet, meaning the little islands are going to be flooded completely.

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48 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas.   There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well.  Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory.  This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it.

Give it time. We need to first get passed Haiti and then Cuba and then the talk will shift towards the Bahamas. Right now the more populated areas of Freeport and Nassau are still 36-48 hours away from impact.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

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Hazel definitely has an eerily similar path so far, but when you have only one matching storm over 150 years, I don't know that the analog is too useful.  I don't think anyone is expecting Matthew will be racing at super speed and bring damaging winds to far-inland Canada. 

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Center as moved back over water, cloud tops are warmer than prior to landfall, but that is to be expected, overall, system still looks pretty healthy despite the direct mountain interaction. 1 mountain range down one to go. Afterwards the million dollar question is how long does it take to reorganize itself? Will it take 8 hours, or multiple days. Given the extremely favorable conditions over the southern Bahamas I'd lean toward a quicker reorganization.

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6 minutes ago, Hugo said:

Hazel definitely has an eerily similar path so far, but when you have only one matching storm over 150 years, I don't know that the analog is too useful.  I don't think anyone is expecting Matthew will be racing at super speed and bring damaging winds to far-inland Canada. 

Track looks similiar but not the strength as it comes further north in the US

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20 minutes ago, kayman said:

That's the $50,000 question I am curious about landfalling tropical systems almost always have a significant tornado threat.

Highest tornado threat with currently projected plots of Matthew even if no landfall would lie along the outer bands spiraling in on the northern and NE side of the hurricane...so it would be a threat.  Of course, a landfall expotentially increases that risk.

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