PTC Matthew

[RU848789]

5 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

I'm talking about when the core is interrupted by land, the winds spread out more in radius , while the peak winds lower more towards the center.  Like when a top is spun.

and no, the core hasn't been interrupted yet.  talking in general terms.

sometimes u need to know general science, and not just what's written in some book about hurricanes.

 

That fails basic physics, sorry.  When a tropical system comes ashore, its energy source - the warm ocean waters - is cut off, meaning the sum total of energy contained in the system (barring extratropical transition going on, where energy is supplied by temperature gradients) decreases.  Basic physics then says that winds decrease everywhere.  Winds would not necessarily automatically increase far from the center.  If you'd like to argue physics, mass transfer, heat transfer and thermodynamics with me, bring it on, but you might want to read my profile first.  

[yoda]

This is going to be a fun 00z suite

 

[Windspeed]

This looks to be developing a much larger eye. The old ragged inner wall looks to be collapsing and probably won't last long much longer against the intensity of that outer band/eye. That's where the highest flight level winds were observed. Maybe 25nm in diameter or more just guessing from that warm arc in the cloudtops?

Combined with the pressure fall and improving structure, this may make a run at sub 910 mb before Haiti.

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hr 144 18z NAVGEM has Matthew in the Delmarva region headed NNE/NE

hes east of last run... i meant to say

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

This is going to be a fun 00z suite

 

LBAR still holding strong in the gulf =)

[stockmanjr]

Just now, Snow88 said:

LBAR still holding strong in the gulf =)

The LBAR really loves the gulf..

[yoda]

And this gives more ammo to the E NC landfall scenario... even though its from 18z

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Please link to the papers suggesting this, you know, how scientific method is carried out.

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

ET transition is a totally different thing than what you are suggesting.

[rockchalk83]

Just now, Bacon Strips said:

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

If by behave differently, you mean fall apart....you'd be correct. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

This is going to be a fun 00z suite

 

Alot more landfalling solutions compared to 18Z.

Meanwhile only one model has it ever getting back to Cat 5.

[kpantz]

1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

Just be sure you're not confusing landfall with baroclinic interaction and extratropical transition...

[iceicebyebye]

2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

do you have some sort of immune system disorder where you are violently resistant to fact?

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

like I said, you can't just go off of what you've read in the library.

If you've seen how many hurricanes hit land, as I have ... you'd notice their almost always a whole other beast afterwards.   winds are almost never as uniform as they were originally. 

The winds get spread out more ,  core behaves differently.

Listen, please do not take this the wrong way whatsoever. I am trying to be extra polite. I am much more knowledable in regards to winter patterns and storms than I am canes, but maybe slow down a little and listen to what Andy has to say. He is a great guy from seeing him post in different aspects of meteorology so take a couple pointers from him rather than challenging him. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

1 minute ago, kpantz said:

Just be sure you're not confusing landfall with baroclinic interaction and extratropical transition...

 

from my experience, most hurricanes that've had a major hit with land, do turn extratropical in a wind sense wise.   (not including temperature inversions)

we don't really even know yet, how much of a land interaction there will be.

[jojo762]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but tropical tidbits now has real-time dropsonde plots on the recon page for every mission into Matthew.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hurricane models are all over the place for the northeast but getting pretty close to Florida with some hitting Florida.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

Massive shift East towards the Euro's idea of a hard right turn once near NC. 18z GFS followed that too.

[andyhb]

Just now, David Reimer said:

Take the banter to OT. 

I wouldn't really consider this banter right now as it is rooted (or at least trying to be) in a discussion about tropical meteorology.

[jojo762]

Recon found 127kt 10-second sustained winds. ~145mph.

[friedmators]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Listen, please do not take this the wrong way whatsoever. I am trying to be extra polite. I am much more knowledable in regards to winter patterns and storms than I am canes, but maybe slow down a little and listen to what Andy has to say. He is a great guy from seeing him post in different aspects of meteorology so take a couple pointers from him rather than challenging him. 

Just put it on ignore.  Extremely pretentious.  Will never admit when it's wrong. 

 

 

[yoda]

John Morales ‏@JohnMoralesNBC6 34m34 minutes ago

Feeder band that evolved from "the blob" NE of #Matthew has dumped 8.19" of rain in La Vega and 16.59" in Pedernales, Dominican Republic.

[Windspeed]

I think once the larger eye starts warming combined with further pressure falls this probably does regain cat 5 intensity. Land interaction will counter that, but it should get there briefly beforehand.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hurricane models are all over the place for the northeast but getting pretty close to Florida with some hitting Florida. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

The LBAR finally corrected itself yet still somehow ends up in the Gulf of Mexico

[NaoPos]

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Recon found 127kt 10-second sustained winds. ~145mph.

Surface or flight level?

 

[Seawind]

From the presentation and pressure, is cat 5 totally out of range before landfall in Haiti? It looks to be reorganizing well.

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Surface or flight level?

 

 

 

In the HDOB. Not the dropsondes (yet) 

125 knots
(~ 143.8 mph)

[David Reimer]

1 minute ago, Seawind said:

From the presentation and pressure, is cat 5 totally out of range before landfall in Haiti? It looks to be reorganizing well.

So far winds haven't responded upward much compared to the pressure drop to 934 MB. Now that could change in literally a moment with these things. We'll have to watch for a quick upward spike in winds over the next few hours - especially if the pressure drop continues.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

15 minutes ago, iceicebyebye said:

do you have some sort of immune system disorder where you are violently resistant to fact?

 

Once Matthew hits the bahamas area, and NHC updates their 'expanded' wind field maps..  I'll make sure to post em here to verify.

[Superstorm93]

000
URNT12 KNHC 040103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL142016
A. 04/00:45:40Z
B. 16 deg 44 min N
  074 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2536 m
D. 98 kt
E. 142 deg 14 nm
F. 223 deg 128 kt
G. 141 deg 16 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 10 C / 3055 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/25/15
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1814A MATTHEW            OB 10
MAX FL WIND 129 KT 071 / 15 NM 23:37:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 9 KT
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 146 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[andyhb]