LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Haven't had any recon in quite a while today. Will be interesting to see what they find here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Pretty sizable SW shift now through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Ugly run for SE FL. Matthew just hammering it through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Rjay said: NWS in Upton and WPC has basically tossed the Euro. Keep in mind they're forecasting for the NYC metro area. So the problem is I think there is a romantic image of a wizened met looking at two conflicting models and using his decades of moxie and skill and intuition and gut to deem one of them "wrong" and the other one "right." While it is perhaps possible for this to occur, what has been found with tropical track forecasting (and something you will get a sense of reading NHC advisory after NHC advisory) is that instead mathematically and mechanically averaging the two models, with no met input, will almost always beat the met that is "picking" a model and "tossing" another. There are some parallels to the superiority of unmanaged stock index funds consistently beating "managed" investments by "experts" though of course important differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Hugging 80W longitude. Borderline UKMET territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's about 5 miles off of Vero Beach at 84 and is riding the coast at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Cleo ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Northern Florida toward SE Georgia getting it now at 99. SC also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Well things just got a little more interesting on the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Position is probably 30/80 vs 31.2?/79 on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: Well things just got a little more interesting on the GFS.... Wow. Close shave on the GFS 930-932mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS has a Cat4 hurricane off the skimming the coast of Florida at 90/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Cleo ... You've been waiting on a date with her all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This GFS run is going make landfall near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 anyone notice how Matthew core just increased in size the last few frames on sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: You've been waiting on a date with her all weekend Shadow in the alley took out all my lights. Cleo cut Cuba - Mathew won't; but look at the track north of Cuba: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Wow. Close shave on the GFS 930-932mb Where do you get the output that shows you 932? I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This is ugly for SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, kpantz said: Where do you get the output that shows you 932? I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke... Its the high res gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: You've been waiting on a date with her all weekend Maybe more of a Cleo-Hazel mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, kpantz said: Where do you get the output that shows you 932? I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke... He's probably using the full resolution frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, kpantz said: Where do you get the output that shows you 932? I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke... Full-resolution frames. WB/Tropical Tidbits and this site all have them. You're using the down-scaled MSLP field http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016100318&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, kpantz said: Where do you get the output that shows you 932? I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke... Pretty sure you're looking at Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and not the max surface pressure. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Click on Surface Pressure & 10m Wind. Gotta be over the atlantic though. US regional frames don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 moving NE at 129 and 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This looks like a step toward the EURO...hard right out 132-135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Charleston gets slammed next Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, cdhay17 said: Charleston gets slammed next Saturday afternoon Yes - lots of coastline indeed gets raked this run. Just remember those are 850mb level winds. Not surface winds. Still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 That is one of the crazier model runs I've ever seen. Matthew hugs the coast/rides the Gulf Stream from Miami to OBX over the course of 72 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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