MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Shocker, why are we still looking at the models again?? I predict a sharp left turn and a straight b line into Sandy Hook that destroys us all. Hey you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's nothing to force hermine west. i buy the east models Shortwave is too slow to capture the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, larrye said: Still, it got the "concept" right and was the closest to verifying for the track up until the retrograde, no? I'm not a met and I fully understand that it didn't get the complete solution and didn't get the solution mile-by-mile, but to say it was "terrible"? Isn't part of being a meteorologist using the various model solutions together with one's skill and knowledge and other tools such as water vapor imagery and radar to "complete" the forecast to the best of their ability? It seems to me that the Euro did the best with this storm for us in the NYC area thus far. The model hugging that goes on here to try to justify the worst case scenario boggles my mind. We had people at one point singling out the HWRF because it had Hermine at the lowest barometric pressures. Wrong. Euro was the most amped of all the models and was awful. GFS was better. Not sure what "concept" the Euro got right..I.dont understand this comment at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Well with Bacon finally on ignore, including his mentions, this thread is much more readable. Meanwhile eastern motion continues, but it does look like a turn is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wrong. Euro was the most amped of all the models and was awful. GFS was better. Not sure what "concept" the Euro got right..I.dont understand this comment at all. The eastward component - from my recollection, it never really showed the same extent of retrograde as the GFS and the Canadian ... I believe even the NWS in their statements made note of this and made note that their track was east of the GFS and the Canadian. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, larrye said: The eastward component - from my recollection, it never really showed the same extent of retrograde as the GFS and the Canadian ... I believe even the NWS in their statements made note of this and made note that their track was east of the GFS and the Canadian. I could be wrong. The Euro had her slamming into the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 If one excluded outlier solutions during each cycle, I don't think the trimmed consensus was too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 RAP has the hard left occurring sometime around midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, friedmators said: RAP has the hard left occurring sometime around midnight tonight. This storm will continue to be a tease until it is wayyyy out in the Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 GGEM has the low coming close to our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GGEM has the low coming close to our area It did the last run too. Now its just 5 mb weaker and 100 miles east of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Partly cloudy and breezy here. Winds at ISP gusting to 24. Definitely not a great beach day. I'm on the beach and it's actually really nice. Wind is mostly offshore. Surf is huge and clean. And nobody's here because of the forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JMA When has that been correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 RAP and other mesoscale models will over amplify the system and bring it left. They should not be used for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, seanick said: When has that been correct? Feb 2006 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 145430 3824N 06653W 6971 03141 0067 +079 //// 152040 044 066 005 01 145500 3826N 06652W 6967 03146 0085 +072 //// 157038 039 066 004 01 145530 3827N 06650W 6963 03152 //// +077 //// 152040 042 065 004 01 Wouldn't be surprised by next advisory they upgraded it to 75 mph. Edit: I know this is off topic but could someone tell me how to ignore a certain poster. Is there like a ignore option or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 it's literally one of the nicest days of the summer here in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 TS Warnings should've been dropped with the 4 am package. Will be amazed if they're not dropped soon or with the 4 pm package. Much less coastal flooding and beach erosion with the storm being over 150 miles east of where it was expected to be just 24-36 hours ago. It's over - it's not retrograding 150 miles westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 28 minutes ago, hooralph said: it's literally one of the nicest days of the summer here in Manhattan. It's beautiful outside I just took a walk near the ocean. Really nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Tracking hermine was a waste of 3 weeks of my life. I lost a lot of sleep these past 2 weeks I went to bed after the Euro and woke up to check the 6z runs and then went back to sleep I really thought this was going to happen since every model had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: I lost a lot of sleep these past 2 weeks I went to bed after the Euro and woke up to check the 6z runs and then went back to sleep I really thought this was going to happen since every model had it Kind of reminds you of the 2015 was it? Euro blizzard fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Kind of reminds you of the 2015 was it? Euro blizzard fail... That was worse but thank god Jonas made up for that =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Found this amusing Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Anyone at the beach right now know this is not a bust. Surf is the biggest since sandy. Definite severe beach erosion occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 It's gorgeous out, little breezy. Hopefully we still get big surf tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Anyone at the beach right now know this is not a bust. Surf is the biggest since sandy. Definite severe beach erosion occurring Currently at Jones Beach. Looks like 6-8 feet waves breaking several hundred feet off shore. Water got halfway up beach this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 22 minutes ago, nycsnow said: It's gorgeous out, little breezy. Hopefully we still get big surf tomorrow It's huge right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Euro is way east. Ends up giving cape cod over 2 inches of rain. Boston and RI get some needed rain also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Anyone at the beach right now know this is not a bust. Surf is the biggest since sandy. Definite severe beach erosion occurring Agreed. Waves are big and getting bigger. Wind is no slouch out here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.